gately
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Curious what you all have to think about this.
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Matt Stone's Dark Truths In The Coronavirus Statistics
- Thread starter gately
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Entropy
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Wow.. Impressive analysis Matt...
Sources and reasoning: pc calculator , worldometer and assuming the worst...
Sources and reasoning: pc calculator , worldometer and assuming the worst...
I don't know what to say. I thought you were gonna say that everything is so, so crazy there's really nothing to it. But instead you changed the denominator and suddenly it looks like we're going to SHTF.
I'm hoping there's still still something that can be digged up that would explain the variation in recovery rates between Italy and South Korea and China (and maybe Japan). They're not far from each other latitude-wise, and this takes the climate away as a confounding factor.
It could be cultural. Asians don't hug and smarmy marmy like Latin people, for example. Shaking hands is even a foreign concept. The classic bow is standard social separation, and doesn't have to be mandated by law. But the world may have changed, and Westerners bow and Asians hug. So I could be wrong.
Another thing is about how ingrained the adoption of conventional Western medical practices has taken root in these countries. China, Korea, and Japan share similar traditions in medicine. Japan has even engrained Kampo medicine, their adapted version of TCM, into their standard practice even if the training is along western lines. Even if the western-trained doctors were to be strict and anti-TCM, there's not much they can do if patients are slipped TCM meds unbeknownst to the doctors.
I'm only mentioning two aspects and I'm sure there are more differences.
I'm in the Philippines and we're no Korea nor China in medical practices for sure. Not to that extent. So, I'm fearful you could be right that we could fit the Italy context more than the Chinese sphere of influence context.
I do think that if the death rates in the Western front become so high and would stand in stark contrast to those in the East, it would be very damning on the Big Pharma authoritarian-driven orientation of Western medicine.
Big Pharma-based ICU treatment is really a racket. We just don't see it when ICU patients slowly go beyond. But in a pandemic, the lid can be lifted open for the world to plainly see how bad it truly is.
I'm hoping there's still still something that can be digged up that would explain the variation in recovery rates between Italy and South Korea and China (and maybe Japan). They're not far from each other latitude-wise, and this takes the climate away as a confounding factor.
It could be cultural. Asians don't hug and smarmy marmy like Latin people, for example. Shaking hands is even a foreign concept. The classic bow is standard social separation, and doesn't have to be mandated by law. But the world may have changed, and Westerners bow and Asians hug. So I could be wrong.
Another thing is about how ingrained the adoption of conventional Western medical practices has taken root in these countries. China, Korea, and Japan share similar traditions in medicine. Japan has even engrained Kampo medicine, their adapted version of TCM, into their standard practice even if the training is along western lines. Even if the western-trained doctors were to be strict and anti-TCM, there's not much they can do if patients are slipped TCM meds unbeknownst to the doctors.
I'm only mentioning two aspects and I'm sure there are more differences.
I'm in the Philippines and we're no Korea nor China in medical practices for sure. Not to that extent. So, I'm fearful you could be right that we could fit the Italy context more than the Chinese sphere of influence context.
I do think that if the death rates in the Western front become so high and would stand in stark contrast to those in the East, it would be very damning on the Big Pharma authoritarian-driven orientation of Western medicine.
Big Pharma-based ICU treatment is really a racket. We just don't see it when ICU patients slowly go beyond. But in a pandemic, the lid can be lifted open for the world to plainly see how bad it truly is.
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aliciahere
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Honestly the amount of people who don’t understand statistics and how to extrapolate data is mind boggling.
I’m Going to predict that at this time in two weeks, the USA will have around 26,000 deaths from COVID-19.
The USA is following in the same footsteps as Italy.
Asian counties have more focus on the community as a whole, and are more willing to do things they would rather not than western countries.
I’m Going to predict that at this time in two weeks, the USA will have around 26,000 deaths from COVID-19.
The USA is following in the same footsteps as Italy.
Asian counties have more focus on the community as a whole, and are more willing to do things they would rather not than western countries.
tankasnowgod
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Stone is making the same false assumptions everyone else is making..... that the "virus" is only starting to show up in countries when the test for the virus also shows up. Ridiculous.
It couldn't have been in China or anywhere else before December 1st, because some doctor discovered it in the very first human patient to ever get the virus. Never mind the astronomical odds against that.
And it couldn't possibly have been in the US in January and February or early March, because, well, the test wasn't ready yet, and the virus didn't want to be rude by showing up to the party early.
Nor could the numbers that he is using for his analysis be inflated due to political or monetary pressures.
Beyond that, he is making the same assumptions that it's the virus AND ONLY THE VIRUS that is causing whatever complications that may arise in patients. Nevermind the underlying diseases and chronic conditions of 99% of the patients in Italy, nor the worse air pollution, nor the fact that it's mainly hitting the elderly. It's all the virus, and none of those factors matter.
It couldn't have been in China or anywhere else before December 1st, because some doctor discovered it in the very first human patient to ever get the virus. Never mind the astronomical odds against that.
And it couldn't possibly have been in the US in January and February or early March, because, well, the test wasn't ready yet, and the virus didn't want to be rude by showing up to the party early.
Nor could the numbers that he is using for his analysis be inflated due to political or monetary pressures.
Beyond that, he is making the same assumptions that it's the virus AND ONLY THE VIRUS that is causing whatever complications that may arise in patients. Nevermind the underlying diseases and chronic conditions of 99% of the patients in Italy, nor the worse air pollution, nor the fact that it's mainly hitting the elderly. It's all the virus, and none of those factors matter.
This.
Do we have any data that shows if the CoV deaths are in place of or on top of more common seasonal illnesses?
Which would then bring up the question of what other virus' these people may be testing positive for?
It doesn't matter when the test kits become available. Do people wait for test kits before they die? Do people also wait for test kits before they recover? Both no.
So Matt using the number of those recovered as basis is better than using total infected. When all is said and done, that is what matters.
Granted that,
-the test kits may give a false positive of 50%, and
- there may be a lot of people on the tip of dying even without the virus that's in the deaths count
But,
- if tests kits are lacking, priority will be given to test those showing the most symptoms, so the false positives would tend to be lower
- the deaths could be adjusted for the expected people to die this year from respiratory reasons, based on previous years' data
Ray Peat seems to have access to those data, and Matt should be able to access them to make adjustment to the deaths counted.
Then, we can get a better picture.
Why the death rate is so much lower in Korea may be due to the widespread availability of test kits. The more tested and confirmed positive, the larger the denominator, and this lowers the death rate. Because tests kits are abundant, even healthy people can be tested and then given a false positive.
When test kits are scarce, the tendency is to increase the death rate over when test kits are abundant.
When test kits are scarce, the tendency is to increase the death rate over when test kits are abundant.
I also have to ask about the test kits used and the procedures used to determine whether a subject tests positive or not.
There are many brands of kits for one. Is there significant variation in the kits used in Korea and in Italy?
And then the procedures used. I understand in the PCR tests, if you really want to get a positive result, you could run more and more cycles until the test becomes positive. Is Korea and Italy running the same number of cycles? And is the number of cycles used optimal in having least false positives and false negatives?
On the subject of false positives and false negatives, I'd really like to know the basis for how many cycles are determined to be used for the test? I assume it would be heavily biased towards getting a false positive, and this would bump up the count of infected people.
I know how much important it would be to minimize false negatives, as this would also be bad. But given the imperfect state of the current technology w/r to PCR, I wish there is a better way to test that is more reliable. But given my deep suspicion of WHO, the CDC, and the entire medical research community, I don't think there is any push for this. The more mystery there is to virus, the better for them as they can talk over us.
There are many brands of kits for one. Is there significant variation in the kits used in Korea and in Italy?
And then the procedures used. I understand in the PCR tests, if you really want to get a positive result, you could run more and more cycles until the test becomes positive. Is Korea and Italy running the same number of cycles? And is the number of cycles used optimal in having least false positives and false negatives?
On the subject of false positives and false negatives, I'd really like to know the basis for how many cycles are determined to be used for the test? I assume it would be heavily biased towards getting a false positive, and this would bump up the count of infected people.
I know how much important it would be to minimize false negatives, as this would also be bad. But given the imperfect state of the current technology w/r to PCR, I wish there is a better way to test that is more reliable. But given my deep suspicion of WHO, the CDC, and the entire medical research community, I don't think there is any push for this. The more mystery there is to virus, the better for them as they can talk over us.
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Colin Nordstrom
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Matt is an idiot. Dude, he is only focused on CONFIRMED cases, not estimates. Death rates will always be higher when analyzing confirmed cases. There are probably over a couple million unconfirmed cases in the world right now, but we’ll never know, because YOU WILL NEVER KNOW! That’s the nature of this beast. People need to exert reasonable caution, take care of themselves, and stop listening to “dark truths” from an internet blogger.
He's focusing on a subset of confirmed cases actually- only those recovered and those that have died. But you're right. Not in the mix are unconfirmed cases who are recovering, or have recovered. If the unconfirmed cases are included, then the metric would be death/entire population. It's really not a bad metric as well.
But that's for the end of this worldwide crisis, where everyone will already have been infected. Divided into two groups - immunized and dead.
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What is your explanation that we in the Netherlands have not enough IC beds anymore in the places where it hit hards and that those people are now transported to other places in the country.
Half of those people on the IC are under 50.
This situation is quite different than we have in the netherlands with the flu.
damngoodcoffee
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Yeah the statistics religion of Babylon confusion is hilarious. The real toxic masculinity, the virus of left-brain dominance. Odin sacrificing his other eye for wisdom. A blind goat banging it's head against the wall.
Colin Nordstrom
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Matt has come at me hard so many times in the past when I questioned his genius. Why can’t we just claim we don’t have all the answers when a new “thing” comes down the pike? But no, we have to be force fed the (Insert authoritarian guru here) gospel statistical truth.
Redshine
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I thought there were still enough bed YET, but they expect next week a lot more patients (with the virus) so before they run out of beds there starting moving patients up north.
I think this was een odd decision to make, we have to stay inside as much as possible en now there patients (wich confirmed corona/virus) are going to cities, hospitals where it didnt hit hard/or even didnt had any cases. Of course everybody wants to help but is it an smart move... I dont know
I think this was een odd decision to make, we have to stay inside as much as possible en now there patients (wich confirmed corona/virus) are going to cities, hospitals where it didnt hit hard/or even didnt had any cases. Of course everybody wants to help but is it an smart move... I dont know
Peatogenic
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The same issue exists for the Flu, as far as killing mostly people with preexisting conditions. The one thing I don't understand is how a lack of testing is seemingly attributed to a lower mortality rate....its as if they're saying thousands of people are dying for unknown reasons if testing is limited in their area. But the opposite would be true....with more testing there's a lower mortality rate.
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Widespread tuberculosis in northern Italy as a result of north African/Arab migrant concentration, plus the presence of native Chinese workers as part of the large Chinese textiles industry in northern Italy, who also imported the Beijing/W strain of M. tuberculosis.
Like a perfect storm.
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