What Will You All Do If Something Happens To The Food Supply?

tara

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Colder weather has far more hazardous potential than warmer weather does, so a wise person will prepare more for colder weather. Warmer weather may make a person more uncomfortable, but it will almost always make crops grow better. But colder weather is more likely to directly kill people as well as crops.
There have already been a number of deaths from heat waves, and a number of crop failures likely due to climate change. Cold also kills, and the climate emergency is expected to produce some extreme cold events as well (as seen recently in North America).

The predictions on current course are that some areas will become too hot to live in, at least during the warmest periods. Plants stop growing when it gets too hot, pollination can be adversely affected, and growth of some staple grains is predicted to be significantly reduced by projected global temperature increases in the next few decades. (Even if you don't want to eat grains personally, much of the world relies on them for survival.) Extreme temperatures can also affect fruit set, reducing yield.

The IPCC has a large number of very competent scientists contributing to it.
I see no reason to privilege the disparate views of a small minority of (often fossil-fuel-funded) contrarians without a consistent theory to account for all the many observed phenomena..
Name some examples. Literally every prediction they've made has failed.
On the contrary, as predicted, observations and measurements show trends of:
An increase in average global surface temperature of around 1C so far.
Increase in global sea temperature.
Sea level rise, inundating some coastal land and small islands.
More severe droughts. (Increased vulnerability to wild fires.)
More severe flooding.
More severe hurricanes.
Heat waves.
Large areas of coral bleaching.
Several decades of consecutive mass loss from major glaciers.
Reduction in mass of Greenland icesheet and West Antarctic icesheet.
Submarine methane clathrates beginning to release.
Arctic tundra thawing.
Some species moving their range.
Reduction in crop yields for some crops.
 
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Perry Staltic

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On the contrary, as predicted, observations and measurements show trends of:
An increase in average global surface temperature of around 1C so far.
Increase in global sea temperature.
Sea level rise, inundating some coastal land and small islands.
More severe dry areas. (Increased vulnerability to forest fires.)
More severe flooding.
More severe hurricanes.
Heat waves.
Large areas of coral bleaching.
Several decades of consecutive mass loss from major glaciers.
Reduction in mass of Greenland icesheet and West Antarctic icesheet.
Submarine methane clathrates beginning to release.
Arctic tundra thawing.
Some species moving their range.
Reduction in crop yields for some crops.

Sea level has been rising at the same rate since the end of the little ice age. Any claim of accelerated rise is based on satellites (modeled) rather than tidal gauges (measured). Tidal gauges show no acceleration.

Where are the more severe dry areas? The earth has actually greened over the past 20 years.

Where is more severe flooding? Not in the US.

More severe hurricanes? From 2005-2017 (12 years) there were no major hurricanes in the US. That's the longest quiet period on record.

Heat waves were worse in the early part of the 20th century.

Coral bleaching is a natural recurring phenomena

Glaciers in Greenland and Iceland have been growing

Glacier National Park had to embarassingly remove a sign that said glaciers would be gone by 2020.

Greenland surface mass balance is pretty close to the 30-year mean

They recently found a WWII airplane that crash landed in Greenland nearly 80 years ago buried under almost 300 feet of ice, which means the ice cap was less back then.

Antarctica overall is gaining ice.

The glaciers in W Antarctica that are melting sit atop the largest volcano system in the world (recently discovered.)
 
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Giraffe

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Sea level rise, inundating some coastal land and small islands.

A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades

Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. Atoll islands affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior compared to islands on other atolls. Island behavior correlated with island size, and no island larger than 10 ha decreased in size.
 

Perry Staltic

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Adding this as an update. The earth isn't getting drier, it's getting greener. 10% global greening in 20 years. The Sahara desert shrunk by 700,000 sq km.

Greening-global-Unbenannt.png


 

BearWithMe

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Sea level has been rising at the same rate since the end of the little ice age. Any claim of accelerated rise is based on satellites (modeled) rather than tidal gauges (measured). Tidal gauges show no acceleration.

Where are the more severe dry areas? The earth has actually greened over the past 20 years.

Where is more severe flooding? Not in the US.

More severe hurricanes? From 2005-2017 (12 years) there were no major hurricanes in the US. That's the longest quiet period on record.

Heat waves were worse in the early part of the 20th century.

Coral bleaching is a natural recurring phenomena

Glaciers in Greenland and Iceland have been growing

Glacier National Park had to embarassingly remove a sign that said glaciers would be gone by 2020.

Greenland surface mass balance is pretty close to the 30-year mean

They recently found a WWII airplane that crash landed in Greenland nearly 80 years ago buried under almost 300 feet of ice, which means the ice cap was less back then.

Antarctica overall is gaining ice.

The glaciers in W Antarctica that are melting sit atop the largest volcano system in the world (recently discovered.)
Wow. Just wow. Great post, thank you
 

Lollipop2

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Your welcome. That's just the tip of the iceberg.
@Perry Staltic This has turned into a fantastic conversation! Thank you for these great posts. I agree with those appreciating your efforts. I am an EU follower for more than 6 years. I appreciate @tara and @Giraffe contributing. I saw a research that proposes that when the Antarctic ice melts it signals the ice age is beginning. Funny enough a couple of days ago saw another research saying the Antarctic ice is melting.
 
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johnwester130

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Just a hypothetical question. I'm not asking because I think it will probably happen (although after the past few weeks I'm realizing that nothing is ever truly out of the question), but what would you do if there are prolonged shortages of fruits, fruit juices, milk, supplements, Peat essentials in general? Peat's favorite milk for example has already been discontinued and something similar may happen with other staples.

For the past several days I've been trying to consume less juice, less liver/oysters, a moderate amount of milk as opposed to close to a gallon, more rice and vegetables and beans. I'm still avoiding refined vegetable oil, but basing my meals predominantly on starch opposed to sugar is definitely lowering my metabolic rate and cognitive ability.

More of certain brands of vitamin E, aspirin, and coffee seems to offset the slow down to some degree, but I wonder if it's possible to increase baseline metabolic rate without requiring specific foods or supps daily?

the Green New Deal by biden will shut down 50 per cent of farms across america

insurance companies are already making calculations based upon an America with about a population of just 100 million
 

theloge

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the Green New Deal by biden will shut down 50 per cent of farms across america

insurance companies are already making calculations based upon an America with about a population of just 100 million
how do you know that about the population?
 

BearWithMe

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ahh yes, I've seen that Deagel website before. I didn't think it had much validity, but who knows? Makes me want to leave the US
Leaving collapsing US is definitely a good idea, but where to go? Most of the western world is heading in the same direction.
 
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Inaut

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Leaving collapsing US is definitely a good idea, but where to go? Most of the western world is heading in the same direction.

Does anyone have thoughts about a place like Uruguay? Looks very safe, no problems with purchasing property as a foreigner, low crime rate and population is on like 3.4 million. It also has some of the most fertile land in the world and temperatures are fairly consistent year round.
 

michael94

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Leaving collapsing US is definitely a good idea, but where to go? Most of the western world heading in the same direction.
The US is a huge place. A lot of cheap places in America that fit that criteria and are far from the cities.
Does anyone have thoughts about a place like Uruguay? Looks very safe, no problems with purchasing property as a foreigner, low crime rate and population is on like 3.4 million. It also has some of the most fertile land in the world and temperatures are fairly consistent year round.
 

BearWithMe

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Does anyone have thoughts about a place like Uruguay? Looks very safe, no problems with purchasing property as a foreigner, low crime rate and population is on like 3.4 million. It also has some of the most fertile land in the world and temperatures are fairly consistent year round.
Yes, was also thinking about either Uruguay or some country in the Southeast Asia.

Not sure about safety in the South America. While Uruguay is definitely the safest country in the region, the reports on crime and safety are somewhat mixed.

One thing that striked me about Uruguay is that they have free range cows on almost every meadow in the country. Which means plenty of affordable, great quality milk
 
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Nemo

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Not sure if you’d be interested in this, but I found this little book on Amazon that shows you how to grow new plants from all your vegetable scraps. It eliminates the need for seeds. It amazed me how many fruits and vegetables can be grown this way. Plus, it would be a really fun project for kids:
Amazon product ASIN 162008368X

Also, people might want to read Masanobu Fukuoka's book One Straw Revolution, which may be the best book I've ever read, period.

Growing your own food in a serious way will never be like the way most people garden. It works better, with far less work, to learn to work around nature.

I literally just throw heirloom seeds on the ground and keep the soil surface moist for a while, until they sprout. I throw the seeds on the ground around my fruit trees. Whatever grows, grows. Whatever fails to grow wasn't meant to be. I never fertilize. I never spray for insects or fungi. I never prune. I never stake. If the seeds need to be covered at the start, I throw a little straw over them after I throw them on the ground.

Once you've got plants like this going, resist the urge to dig them up in the fall unless you really hated the taste or something. Just leave some of the fruits on the plant to fall on the ground and plant their seeds themselves. Let the rest of the plant die and fall over the seeds to cover them. Let the plants do the work for you. You end up getting a lot of food from plants well-suited to your specific soil and climate and all you ever have to do is go out and pick them when you're ready to eat them. In drier climates, you may have to water, but less than you think if you give plants plenty of room by just letting the fittest take over the space they need.

Also, if you're in a difficult environment, like the desert, you might want to look up old anthropological studies on the agriculture of local native tribes. I love reading about how desert peoples in my area planted in arroyos right after rainy season, and this kind of thing actually works. You can also read about how they used local native plants for food.

Also, you don't have to eat bugs or worms for protein unless you want to. You can create a healthy environment for bugs and frogs and raise chickens that eat them. That's what chickens want to eat, not the crappy corn and soy chicken feed everyone gives them. Then you can eat the chickens.

And you can feed rabbits wheat grass, plus grape leaves, carrot greens, vegetable sprouts, maybe some sprouted grain and local wild plant clippings. Get a big tub of wheat berries for wheat grass and you'll have rabbits for protein as well. If you build a fenced enclosure against a hillside, they'll dig their own homes. (They'll also dig their way out, but that's another post.)

I'd read Masanobu Fukuoka, and if you can, find an old mining community or Amish community to relocate to. I've lived in one mining community after another most of my adult life (since a job with the United Mine Workers), and they are terrific places to live. Mining is cyclical, which means every miner in an established mining community knows he will be laid off for long periods of his life. So miners and their families are incredibly frugal and self-reliant and the communities are very tight.

Their houses are small but low tech, so they can do all maintenance work themselves. Often the houses are duplexes, so there are multiple generations in the house, which means the grandparents can help with the kids and nobody ever has to go into exile in an old-people's home.

People drive old trucks and keep them going forever. I've even lived in a community in East Texas where no one had a car. They had horses. They were descendants of slaves who had gotten the land after slavery ended and they still lived in the same way on their land. I rented a house on two acres there for $100 a month and learned a lot.

Miners' yards are entirely given over to fruit trees and vegetable gardens. All miners I've known hunt. They get a deer and a turkey every year, wild trout or whatever the local fish is in season. They never buy meat. In season they go mushrooming, or whatever the local valued wild food is.

And places in these communities are cheap. I owned two houses in mining communities before my current place. I bought each of them for less than $15k, and both had about an acre of yard backing up on trout creeks or woods.

It will be hard to fit in at first, but a lot easier if people see you doing things like putting in fruit trees or fixing a broken window yourself. You'll fit in even faster if you ask for advice on your garden or offer to help someone changing a tire or working on his truck.

There are always farms nearby where you can buy fresh milk straight from the farmer. It's a good life.
 
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Perry Staltic

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Pole ice melting ? Don't believe it. Agriculture doesn't like colder weather, so prepare for cold.

Modern climate science states that “because the Earth’s polar regions are warming more quickly than the rest of the world, the temperature contrast that drives jet streams has decreased” which makes for a wavy jet stream flow. But in reality, satellite data reveals that sea ice extent around the southern pole has actually GROWN over the past 40+years, and also shows that temperatures across the continent have had no real trend.
Embedded below is the latest data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). It shows that sea ice at the South Pole has been on overdrive this season, climbing some 500,000 sq km above the mean. The chart also reveals this year’s growth is comfortably outstripping all four multidecadal averages: 1979 to 1990, 1991 to 2000, 2001 to 2010, and 2011 to 2020:

arctic-sea-ice-extent-March-28.jpeg


Arctic sea ice volume (or ‘thickness’) is also doing just fine this year:

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20210328.png



 

PxD

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There have already been a number of deaths from heat waves, and a number of crop failures likely due to climate change. Cold also kills, and the climate emergency is expected to produce some extreme cold events as well (as seen recently in North America).

The predictions on current course are that some areas will become too hot to live in, at least during the warmest periods. Plants stop growing when it gets too hot, pollination can be adversely affected, and growth of some staple grains is predicted to be significantly reduced by projected global temperature increases in the next few decades. (Even if you don't want to eat grains personally, much of the world relies on them for survival.) Extreme temperatures can also affect fruit set, reducing yield.

The IPCC has a large number of very competent scientists contributing to it.
I see no reason to privilege the disparate views of a small minority of (often fossil-fuel-funded) contrarians without a consistent theory to account for all the many observed phenomena..

On the contrary, as predicted, observations and measurements show trends of:
An increase in average global surface temperature of around 1C so far.
Increase in global sea temperature.
Sea level rise, inundating some coastal land and small islands.
More severe droughts. (Increased vulnerability to wild fires.)
More severe flooding.
More severe hurricanes.
Heat waves.
Large areas of coral bleaching.
Several decades of consecutive mass loss from major glaciers.
Reduction in mass of Greenland icesheet and West Antarctic icesheet.
Submarine methane clathrates beginning to release.
Arctic tundra thawing.
Some species moving their range.
Reduction in crop yields for some crops.

There is no "climate emergency".

gisp-last-10000-new-a.gif
GISP2.gif


The IPCC is not a scientific body. It's a political one. Its founding mission statement is to look for and prove the existence of man-made climate change. If you read through the literature on how the body comes up with its recommendations for policy makers, which forms the core of their regular assessments, they explicitly describe how desired policy goals drive which science is picked and used in the report, and not the other way around. Almost nobody in the general public is aware of this because no one is interested in reading the fine print and following the boring protocols and rules of how the IPCC ARs are put together. Instead, we are led to believe that a broad range of scientists contribute to IPCC and the IPCC simply acts like an impartial compiler of scientific climate truth. This image is PR spin and is 100% false.

Climate models that use CO2 forcing as the sole driver of temperature changes (which is all of them) have been abysmally poor in their forecasts for >20 years now. They keep having to readjust the models in real time to keep pace with observed temperatures, although in the past few years that community + political allies seem to have just resorted to fiddling with the historical temperature data to make the past look colder, thus making the present look warmer.

Perry Staltic already provided a list of links to data refuting the list of claims you made in the last paragraph, so I'll leave it at that.

At the end of the day though, if there's one thing that sums up all the problems with the AGW theory, it's that you can't have a man-made global warming problem due to fossil fuels when the warming/sea rise started some 100 years before the start of the petroleum age.
 
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