What Will You All Do If Something Happens To The Food Supply?

rei

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As far as China is concerned, they picked up food imports massively last year because of the huge floods along the Yangtze. This was largely unreported in Western media. The Three Gorges Damn was releasing far more water than it should have downstream in order to prevent damn collapses and catastrophic flooding further upstream, net result being harvests being wiped out downstream. Prices for staples such as corn, wheat, and pork went through the roof. That's why the US was exporting so much to China.
that's not accurate, or at least what you implied is not. No matter if the dam was there, the same amount of water would have gone through. If anything, the dam can function as a cpacitor and smooth out rainfalls etc. to not make it so damaging as it had been naturally.
 

Perry Staltic

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that's not accurate, or at least what you implied is not. No matter if the dam was there, the same amount of water would have gone through. If anything, the dam can function as a cpacitor and smooth out rainfalls etc. to not make it so damaging as it had been naturally.

But not in the same amount of time. Higher head pressures create much higher flows than normal which causes greater flooding downstream.
 

PxD

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that's not accurate, or at least what you implied is not. No matter if the dam was there, the same amount of water would have gone through. If anything, the dam can function as a cpacitor and smooth out rainfalls etc. to not make it so damaging as it had been naturally.
The damn was releasing peak flows downstream of 35,000 cubic meters per second or more for extended periods during each of the four or five big rainfall episodes in the summer last year. This is far above the recommended release volume and it ended up flooding areas downstream of the damn, yet it wasn’t enough to prevent flooding upstream of the damn - for example, chunks of downtown Wuhan (yes, the same Wuhan) were flooded under several meters of water. In short, the season last year brought so much rain to the Yangtze River basin, which is chinas breadbasket, that even the gigantic Three Gorges wasn’t able to control the volume of water adequately and had to release way more water downstream than it’s supposed to in order to prevent the damn walls being breached. A lot of crop was lost which is what resulted in Chinese traders buying up large quantities of foreign crops.
 

PxD

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There was a study in which they tried to simulate the conditions that climate models predict for Germany (temperature climate). So they grew a typical crop (I think it was wheat) at higher CO2 levels and higher temperatures. They found that not only the plants grew much better under those conditions, but they also used water more efficiently. When they simulated a drought they found that the plants grown at higher CO2 were more resilient.
Yes, for a given amount of water, higher levels of CO2 taken up by plants through the stomata leads to bigger plants. Conversely, providing higher CO2 can help plants be more resilient against lower water intake (drought). There is nothing but upside for plants from higher CO2.

You don’t have to look to scientific studies for evidence of this; commercial greenhouse growers have been pumping CO2 into their greenhouses to concentrations above 1000ppm for years in order to get plants to market bigger and faster.
 

rei

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But not in the same amount of time. Higher head pressures create much higher flows than normal which causes greater flooding downstream.

The damn was releasing peak flows downstream of 35,000 cubic meters per second or more for extended periods during each of the four or five big rainfall episodes in the summer last year. This is far above the recommended release volume and it ended up flooding areas downstream of the damn, yet it wasn’t enough to prevent flooding upstream of the damn - for example, chunks of downtown Wuhan (yes, the same Wuhan) were flooded under several meters of water. In short, the season last year brought so much rain to the Yangtze River basin, which is chinas breadbasket, that even the gigantic Three Gorges wasn’t able to control the volume of water adequately and had to release way more water downstream than it’s supposed to in order to prevent the damn walls being breached. A lot of crop was lost which is what resulted in Chinese traders buying up large quantities of foreign crops.
Please explain to me the logic how a dam makes it worse downstream? Upstream of course if it is badly designed so the dam is not overflowing before wrong areas get flooded. But if the dam would not exist there, and the rainfall would be the same, then of course the same amount of water would flow through the same place. Why would the dam operators first store water, and then start releasing it at rate higher than more is coming in?
 

PxD

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Please explain to me the logic how a dam makes it worse downstream? Upstream of course if it is badly designed so the dam is not overflowing before wrong areas get flooded. But if the dam would not exist there, and the rainfall would be the same, then of course the same amount of water would flow through the same place. Why would the dam operators first store water, and then start releasing it at rate higher than more is coming in?

What I was saying was that certain areas in China flooded badly last year DESPITE all of the dams along the river basin, not BECAUSE of the dams. You are correct in stating that dams can regulate flow and reduce some of the worst effects of heavy rainfall, but this ability becomes greatly diminished if rainfall is so heavy and water levels rise so quickly that the dams themselves are in danger of being over-topped, and they are forced to open the sluices wide and release way more water than they are supposed to in order to preserve the structural integrity of the dam. This is what happened last summer with TGD in China. Chinese leadership even released statements about actions taken being to preserve the dam, downstream consequences be damned (no pun intended).

I saw something similar first hand where I live a few years back. We have a couple of large rainfall reservoirs that prevent flooding in my city and 4 years ago a heavy rain event caused them to completely fill up within days. They were in danger of catastrophic collapse, so they had to do an emergency release of water, which ended up flooding and destroying thousands of homes over entire neighborhoods. The thing that was supposed to regulate water runoff and prevent flooding turned into a thing that caused massive flooding damage once its capacity limits were reached. Ironic.
 

Perry Staltic

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Please explain to me the logic how a dam makes it worse downstream? Upstream of course if it is badly designed so the dam is not overflowing before wrong areas get flooded. But if the dam would not exist there, and the rainfall would be the same, then of course the same amount of water would flow through the same place. Why would the dam operators first store water, and then start releasing it at rate higher than more is coming in?

The 167m or so of vertical head creates a tremendous pressure that allows water to be discharged at a much higher rate than would normally exist overflowing the dam top, or with no dam present. I think you will agree that if the dam suddenly disappeared there would be a tremendous flood downstream. It would be the same amount of water that would flow if the damn had never been there, but all at once. The same is true, but to a lesser degree, when they emergency discharge at full throttle from the base of the dam (see video). 167m of head pressure creates a tremendous anomalous flow 24/7 for days or weeks on end. It can't be drained downstream fast enough to match inflow so there is greater flooding. They had to release at maximum flow to prevent the dam from overtopping, which the 3 Gorges Dam almost did.

 

rei

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What I was saying was that certain areas in China flooded badly last year DESPITE all of the dams along the river basin, not BECAUSE of the dams. You are correct in stating that dams can regulate flow and reduce some of the worst effects of heavy rainfall, but this ability becomes greatly diminished if rainfall is so heavy and water levels rise so quickly that the dams themselves are in danger of being over-topped, and they are forced to open the sluices wide and release way more water than they are supposed to in order to preserve the structural integrity of the dam. This is what happened last summer with TGD in China. Chinese leadership even released statements about actions taken being to preserve the dam, downstream consequences be damned (no pun intended).

I saw something similar first hand where I live a few years back. We have a couple of large rainfall reservoirs that prevent flooding in my city and 4 years ago a heavy rain event caused them to completely fill up within days. They were in danger of catastrophic collapse, so they had to do an emergency release of water, which ended up flooding and destroying thousands of homes over entire neighborhoods. The thing that was supposed to regulate water runoff and prevent flooding turned into a thing that caused massive flooding damage once its capacity limits were reached. Ironic.
sorry i misread you, i thought you argued for "because of" instead of "despite". Still, no more is released than what is coming in, so there is no argument for how the dam would make things worse downstream, ever.
The 167m or so of vertical head creates a tremendous pressure that allows water to be discharged at a much higher rate than would normally exist overflowing the dam top, or with no dam present. I think you will agree that if the dam suddenly disappeared there would be a tremendous flood downstream. It would be the same amount of water that would flow if the damn had never been there, but all at once. The same is true, but to a lesser degree, when they emergency discharge at full throttle from the base of the dam (see video). 167m of head pressure creates a tremendous anomalous flow 24/7 for days or weeks on end. It can't be drained downstream fast enough to match inflow so there is greater flooding. They had to release at maximum flow to prevent the dam from overtopping, which the 3 Gorges Dam almost did.


That has no effect on the outcome. Sure the pressure is larger but they regulate the flow rate to arrive at the same volume as is coming in. At least tis is how every dam i have seen described works. Do you have a source that says some dam works as fully open/fully closed principle, with limit how often it can be opened and closed, which is the only mode where you would arrive at higher flow than what is coming in.
 

Perry Staltic

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That has no effect on the outcome. Sure the pressure is larger but they regulate the flow rate to arrive at the same volume as is coming in. At least tis is how every dam i have seen described works. Do you have a source that says some dam works as fully open/fully closed principle, with limit how often it can be opened and closed, which is the only mode where you would arrive at higher flow than what is coming in.

You're making an assumption that they discharged to match inflow. That's done in normal times to maintain reservoir levels, but not during emergencies. There's no way to know exactly how much rain is going to fall, so when there's a danger of overtopping the dam, like what happened at the 3 Gorges Dam, discharge at full flow is the only prudent and sensible thing to do because they can only discharge so fast, and if they allow infill to get ahead of discharge, then they would be in real trouble.
 

rei

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you are assuming it can rain for long periods of time more than maximum discharge capacity.

Also, dams are often (always?) designed so that you need to do no manual discharge as it simply overflows the dam top passively. In this case any discharge would simply smoothen out expected peaks, never make it worse. Is this specific dam not designed like this?

edit: the video you linked shows it is running at 30% discharge capacity at most. So seems like it is designed to always be more than able to handle any rain amount, even if it had no passive safety (overflow) in design, but it would be idiotic to not build passive safety into the design.
 
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PxD

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Here's another heat flux map that I haven't seen before. The largest red spot is the location of Pine Island glacier, another one they say is melting.

Terrestrial-heat-flow-in-Antarctica-from-the-mean-geothermal-heat-flux-model-of-Van_Q320.jpg

Latest global satellite temps. Dec, Jan, Feb, and March were hella cold, relatively speaking.
1617748162142.png


from Dr. Roy Spencer's site: UAH Global Temperatures
 

Perry Staltic

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Latest global satellite temps. Dec, Jan, Feb, and March were hella cold, relatively speaking.
View attachment 22569

from Dr. Roy Spencer's site: UAH Global Temperatures

The latest pause in warming is now up to 5 years, 10 months per UAH (satellite data), and 6 years 9 months per HadCRUT4 (land data). There has been no warming during that period despite steadily rising CO2; in fact there's been a slight cooling.

 

Perry Staltic

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The next time you read that Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica is melting because of global warming, say poo. They found an active volcano beneath it. Pretty cool how they found it.

 

Dr. B

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Just a hypothetical question. I'm not asking because I think it will probably happen (although after the past few weeks I'm realizing that nothing is ever truly out of the question), but what would you do if there are prolonged shortages of fruits, fruit juices, milk, supplements, Peat essentials in general? Peat's favorite milk for example has already been discontinued and something similar may happen with other staples.

For the past several days I've been trying to consume less juice, less liver/oysters, a moderate amount of milk as opposed to close to a gallon, more rice and vegetables and beans. I'm still avoiding refined vegetable oil, but basing my meals predominantly on starch opposed to sugar is definitely lowering my metabolic rate and cognitive ability.

More of certain brands of vitamin E, aspirin, and coffee seems to offset the slow down to some degree, but I wonder if it's possible to increase baseline metabolic rate without requiring specific foods or supps daily?
what exactly is peats favorite milk? i asked him about that and he said he just gets raw milk from farmers and skims some fat off and lightly heats the milk... but im surprised peat doesnt seem to care about milk being grass fed, organic, A2, etc?
 

David90

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I Think Prices are going up slowly since the ''Evergreen Incident''. Or is maybe a Inflation slowly going on?

As actual Examples:
In our Store, Single Bell Peppers are costing now 9,99€ per KG, before it was like 3,99/4,99€ per KG.
Even the Packaged Bell Peppers are going up to about 2,99€ per Package (before it was like 1,49/1,69€).
Iceberg Lettuce are costing now 1,99€. Before it was 1,29€/1,49€
Also Sour Cucumber Jars are going up by about 20-60 Cents per Package. Also Oils by about 40 Cent to 1€.
Seasonal Differcenies can be locked out as a reason.

Also have Reports from the USA that Beef Prices are going up. Also Wood Prices (for the Workers) are Doubled or Tripled.
 

PxD

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I Think Prices are going up slowly since the ''Evergreen Incident''. Or is maybe a Inflation slowly going on?

As actual Examples:
In our Store, Single Bell Peppers are costing now 9,99€ per KG, before it was like 3,99/4,99€ per KG.
Even the Packaged Bell Peppers are going up to about 2,99€ per Package (before it was like 1,49/1,69€).
Iceberg Lettuce are costing now 1,99€. Before it was 1,29€/1,49€
Also Sour Cucumber Jars are going up by about 20-60 Cents per Package. Also Oils by about 40 Cent to 1€.
Seasonal Differcenies can be locked out as a reason.

Also have Reports from the USA that Beef Prices are going up. Also Wood Prices (for the Workers) are Doubled or Tripled.
I can confirm that lumber is very expensive in the USA right now.

I think a lot of what you are observing are the effects of COVID supply chain shutdowns finally showing up in prices for consumer goods.
 

David90

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I can confirm that lumber is very expensive in the USA right now.

I think a lot of what you are observing are the effects of COVID supply chain shutdowns finally showing up in prices for consumer goods.
Yeah i think so. Even in our Discounters Aldi & Lidl you notice a Price Increase in Many Articles.

They are Justify it with the Harvest (because it was still cold in Febuary/March). But if i remember correctly it was always cold on that Time around here. In Reality we all know it is caused by supply Chain Shutdowns.
 
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