What Will You All Do If Something Happens To The Food Supply?

Perry Staltic

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The graph you posted shows that there is an overall warming trend aside from the noise of the short el nino/el nina cycles. Nearly half a degree C in just over 30 years. A trend like that is not compatible with reliably sustainable ecosystems over longer periods.

Those El Ninos are not noise; they were massive step-changes in heat energy delivered to the atmosphere. Before the 1998 El Nino the mean on the last graph was about -0.1 C, and afterwards it was about +0.1 C. So in one year the temperature mean was increased by about 0.2 C. That's huge. Without the 1998 and 2016 El Ninos there would be little to no positive trend in temperature over the period shown. You have absolutely zero evidence that a positive trend will continue. As I said in my post, once the oceans have given up heat that is not replaced due to decreased solar activity, then that trend could reverse. It already has for the past 5-year period according to that UAH graph.
 
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Nik665

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Just a hypothetical question. I'm not asking because I think it will probably happen (although after the past few weeks I'm realizing that nothing is ever truly out of the question), but what would you do if there are prolonged shortages of fruits, fruit juices, milk, supplements, Peat essentials in general? Peat's favorite milk for example has already been discontinued and something similar may happen with other staples.

For the past several days I've been trying to consume less juice, less liver/oysters, a moderate amount of milk as opposed to close to a gallon, more rice and vegetables and beans. I'm still avoiding refined vegetable oil, but basing my meals predominantly on starch opposed to sugar is definitely lowering my metabolic rate and cognitive ability.

More of certain brands of vitamin E, aspirin, and coffee seems to offset the slow down to some degree, but I wonder if it's possible to increase baseline metabolic rate without requiring specific foods or supps dail
 

Nik665

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Just a hypothetical question. I'm not asking because I think it will probably happen (although after the past few weeks I'm realizing that nothing is ever truly out of the question), but what would you do if there are prolonged shortages of fruits, fruit juices, milk, supplements, Peat essentials in general? Peat's favorite milk for example has already been discontinued and something similar may happen with other staples.

For the past several days I've been trying to consume less juice, less liver/oysters, a moderate amount of milk as opposed to close to a gallon, more rice and vegetables and beans. I'm still avoiding refined vegetable oil, but basing my meals predominantly on starch opposed to sugar is definitely lowering my metabolic rate and cognitive ability.

More of certain brands of vitamin E, aspirin, and coffee seems to offset the slow down to some degree, but I wonder if it's possible to increase baseline metabolic rate without requiring specific foods or supps daily?
Stocking up on condensed milk white sugar corn flour white rice even sources of food I don’t normally eat such as beans and lentils can help one through food shortages. Better some well cooked beans than no calories. Frozen juice in concentrate form . Stock up on dried fruit beef jerky coconut oil butter condensed milk and sources that don’t spoil quickly and are high in calories. Also guns because if and when it gets to that people will become violent
 

tara

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once the oceans have given up heat that is not replaced

The El Nino Southern Oscillation has been going on for a long time without creating a long-term warming trend.

"El Niño has a strong short term effect on global temperature but cannot explain the long term trend. ...

This view is confirmed in other analyses. An examination of the temperature record from 1880 to 2007 finds internal variability such as El Nino has relatively small impact on the long term trend (Hoerling 2008). Instead, they find long term trends in sea surface temperatures are driven predominantly by the planet's energy imbalance."

The oceans have ben measurably warming, and they have absorbed much more of the excess heat from global heating than the atmosphere has since the middle of last century - possible up to 90% or so.

It is projected to continue to absorb heat (on a scale longer than the el-nino cycle) as long as the GHGs remain at high levels. As the arctic polar ice sheet and other sea ice reduces in area, more heat is absorbed by the exposed ocean, rather than being reflected.

Serious rapid reduction in GHG emissions might be able to limit this trend.
 
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Nemo

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Denying science doesn't make it untrue.
I don't know what the local effects are for you in your location. Perhaps you and yours have not yet been affected by extreme weather, fires, etc, yet.

There is absolutely no evidence of global warming. Do some real research and get over your brainwashing.
 

tara

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There is absolutely no evidence of global warming. Do some real research and get over your brainwashing.
The evidence is abundant; stop the anti-science denial.
 

Nemo

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Find a good, small, isolated community of like-minded people to live in and do it as soon as you can.

In my community, everyone grows fruit trees in their yards and we have more fruit and nut trees and shrubs throughout our parks. The entire community eats free fruit from early spring through late fall, everything from cherries to blackberries to apricots and peaches and apples and dates and figs and pears and more. The post office is always full of bowls of fruit for people to take. About the only fruit I pay for anymore is orange juice, plus blueberries in season.

Within the memory of current residents, there was a community corral where people raised livestock. When the city got too big (late '80s), the bureaucrats drove out here and clamped down on it, but the city is dying from Bat Plague lockdowns and I'm betting we'll be doing that again sooner or later. There are deer and bighorn sheep in the canyon and in the mountains we're backed up against.

We have an entire mountain range and canyon that recharge our springs and wells. We're too far from the city and too small for the Stalinists to take an interest in us.

I have a rabbit habitat already installed in my yard, plus a greenhouse. I just lent my chicken coop to a neighbor, but there is plenty of room in it for both of us to raise chickens. You can hear roosters crowing every morning all over the neighborhood. Every once in a while you find some chickens running down the street and have to put them back in your neighbor's yard.

Although some California fussbudgets have recently moved in and driven up house prices, the base of the community is still former Texans, mostly veterans with names like Evan and Verne. All have antlers over their fireplaces and can teach you to shoot at the nearby range.

We have a bunch of musicians in town who gather on the porch of the little community store in the evening and play bluegrass music.

There is a very poor legacy family in the neighborhood from back when it was founded as a little mining town. Literally every one of them but the middle-aged daughter is schizophrenic, having hallucinations all over the place. They live in a couple of trailers on about an acre of land where they raise chickens. They even trap rabbits to feed their dogs. Even they can survive in a community like this.
 
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Perry Staltic

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"El Niño has a strong short term effect on global temperature but cannot explain the long term trend. ...

It explains it for the last 20 or so years, because without their step-change increase there has been no significant positive trend during that period. Regarding the long term 150-year positive trend prior to that (1850-2000), the Little Ice Age ended in the mid 1800s, so of course a warming trend is to be expected and completely natural.

The oceans have ben measurably warming, and they have absorbed much more of the excess heat from global heating than the atmosphere has since the middle of last century - possible up to 90% or so.
It is projected to continue to absorb heat (on a scale longer than the el-nino cycle) as long as the GHGs remain at high levels. As the arctic polar ice sheet and other sea ice reduces in area, more heat is absorbed by the exposed ocean, rather than being reflected.

I don't see Arctic sea ice extent decreasing. It's higher now than during the past 10 years. (Edit: I just realized that this is 2021, and that article is 2020. Arctic sea ice extent is currently down a bit from the 30-year mean.)


Antarctica sea ice extent is increasing also:

Sea ice extent in June 2020 = 13.2 million sq km
Sea ice extent in June 1980 = 12.5 million sq km
Sea ice concentration in June 2020 = 10.6 million sq km
Sea ice concentration in June 1980 = 9.6 million sq km

 
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Giraffe

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The oceans have ben measurably warming, and they have absorbed much more of the excess heat from global heating than the atmosphere has since the middle of last century - possible up to 90% or so.

The evidence is abundant; stop the anti-science denial.
You really should watch this documentary I mentioned. Here they explain that CO2 is lagging behind temperature by hundreds of years and what the oceans have to do with it.
 

Perry Staltic

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You really should watch this documentary I mentioned. Here they explain that CO2 is lagging behind temperature by hundreds of years and what the oceans have to do with it.

Long story, short - oceans out-gas dissolved CO2 into the atmosphere as they warm because cold water holds more CO2 than warm water does. So temps rise, then atmospheric CO2 follows (after a lag). The whole historical record shows that.
 

tara

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You really should watch this documentary I mentioned. Here they explain that CO2 is lagging behind temperature by hundreds of years and what the oceans have to do with it.
The physics of atmospheric CO2mean that it functions as a green house gas for the planet. The level of CO2 has risen sharply in the last century. This has a heating effect. There are other factors that have also affected global energy balance at times. Some of them have been reinforced by CO2 as a feedback loop.
 

Giraffe

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The physics of atmospheric CO2mean that it functions as a green house gas for the planet. The level of CO2 has risen sharply in the last century. This has a heating effect. There are other factors that have also affected global energy balance at times. Some of them have been reinforced by CO2 as a feedback loop.
CO2 is not a major climate driver: It's the sun's activity that drives temperature on earth.
 

bzmazu

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See what Gates is doing to the food supply....

 

Perry Staltic

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I don't see Arctic sea ice extent decreasing. It's higher now than during the past 10 years. (Edit: I just realized that this is 2021, and that article is 2020. Arctic sea ice extent is currently down a bit from the 30-year mean.)

Arctic sea ice area currently appears to be slightly above the 10-year average. Just don't see the predicted sea ice reduction happening.

 

tara

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CO2 is not a major climate driver: It's the sun's activity that drives temperature on earth.
Of course the sun is the primary source of heat and thence climate on Earth.
CO2 and other green-house gasses (GHGs) are what trap heat in the atmosphere to create a habitable environment.
Like the sun provides the main heat source for a greenhouse, and the glass or plastic walls that trap it are important for holding in the heat, and can be set to allow more or less heat to escape.

Changes in the levels of these gases change how much of the sun's heat is trapped, and how much is reflected and radiated out again.
Changes in the Earth's orbit and tilt, and in solar activity, can have an effect on the Earth's energy balance and climate. In the past, so have major changes in vegetation etc over millions of years, and series of volcanoes over shorter spans, etc.

The current extremely rapid change in GHGs is having a bigger effect on changing global climate than anything else. This is in large part caused by human activity, including burning of massive amounts of fossil fuels over the last century, deforestation, degradation of soils, etc.

The range of predictions based on current scientific evidence is for global heating to continue for some time even if humans stop causing high GHG emissions. There is scientific uncertainty about at what point tipping points/thresholds might be crossed that make the heating irreversible. There are a number of positive feedback mechanisms at play.
 

Perry Staltic

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The range of predictions based on current scientific evidence is for global heating to continue for some time even if humans stop causing high GHG emissions. There is scientific uncertainty about at what point tipping points/thresholds might be crossed that make the heating irreversible. There are a number of positive feedback mechanisms at play.

There is no evidence. The predictions are based solely on models, ie, computer programs, that have no feedback inputs from the real world (physical evidence). When hurricane forecasters model the projected path of a hurricane they continuously readjust their model runs with real-time data. Climate modelers never do that, and consequently their predictions drastically diverge from reality.
 

tara

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There are graphs on the following links too.

" Minimum sea ice extent has decreased 13.1% per decade since 1979."

"In the 2017 issue of NOAA’s Arctic Report Card, scientists report on a body of paleoclimate research that shows that the extent and rate of sea ice decline in the Arctic is unprecedented over at least the past 1,500 years."

And this one looks at Arctic sea ice volume, not just extent of the sea ice cover over the last 1500 years, and says that:
"This time series shows the Arctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers over the past roughly 1,500 years. Scientists use climate proxies like sediment/ice cores, tree rings, and fossilized shells of ocean creatures to extend the sea ice extent records back in time. These records show that while there have been several periods over the past 1,450 years when sea ice extents expanded and contracted, the decrease during the modern era is unrivaled. And just as importantly, it is beyond the range of natural variability, implying a human component to the drastic decrease observed in the records."
 

Perry Staltic

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" Minimum sea ice extent has decreased 13.1% per decade since 1979."

1979 is a cherry picked year because it was cold that year compared to the decades before and after it. So using 1979 as a starting point only shows a decreasing trend. Including years before 1979 reveals that sea ice is cyclical. Sea ice extents before 1979 were actually less than they were the two decades after 1979 (at least). Satellite data exist prior to 1979, but it's not used because it shows sea ice extent is cyclical.

 

Giraffe

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Of course the sun is the primary source of heat and thence climate on Earth.
CO2 and other green-house gasses (GHGs) are what trap heat in the atmosphere to create a habitable environment.
Like the sun provides the main heat source for a greenhouse, and the glass or plastic walls that trap it are important for holding in the heat, and can be set to allow more or less heat to escape.

Changes in the levels of these gases change how much of the sun's heat is trapped, and how much is reflected and radiated out again.
Changes in the Earth's orbit and tilt, and in solar activity, can have an effect on the Earth's energy balance and climate. In the past, so have major changes in vegetation etc over millions of years, and series of volcanoes over shorter spans, etc.

The current extremely rapid change in GHGs is having a bigger effect on changing global climate than anything else. This is in large part caused by human activity, including burning of massive amounts of fossil fuels over the last century, deforestation, degradation of soils, etc.

The range of predictions based on current scientific evidence is for global heating to continue for some time even if humans stop causing high GHG emissions. There is scientific uncertainty about at what point tipping points/thresholds might be crossed that make the heating irreversible. There are a number of positive feedback mechanisms at play.
Please watch the documentary.
 

boris

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Global warming is a fraud.

Manmade global warming is a proven fraud. A Climate Research Unit that supplies the UN's climate change panel with data got hacked in 2009 and it revealed the corruption. The topic has been whitewashed in the media, but the about 250MB of leaked emails don't lie, anyone can read them for themselves here, including talk about fudging numbers:
The Telegraph | Climate change: this is the worst scientific scandal of our generation
"The second and most shocking revelation of the leaked documents is how they show the scientists trying to manipulate data through their tortuous computer programmes, always to point in only the one desired direction – to lower past temperatures and to "adjust" recent temperatures upwards, in order to convey the impression of an accelerated warming. This comes up so often (not least in the documents relating to computer data in the Harry Read Me file) that it becomes the most disturbing single element of the entire story. This is what Mr McIntyre caught Dr Hansen doing with his GISS temperature record last year (after which Hansen was forced to revise his record), and two further shocking examples have now come to light from Australia and New Zealand.
In each of these countries it has been possible for local scientists to compare the official temperature record with the original data on which it was supposedly based. In each case it is clear that the same trick has been played – to turn an essentially flat temperature chart into a graph which shows temperatures steadily rising. And in each case this manipulation was carried out under the influence of the CRU.
What is tragically evident from the Harry Read Me file is the picture it gives of the CRU scientists hopelessly at sea with the complex computer programmes they had devised to contort their data in the approved direction, more than once expressing their own desperation at how difficult it was to get the desired results.
The third shocking revelation of these documents is the ruthless way in which these academics have been determined to silence any expert questioning of the findings they have arrived at by such dubious methods – not just by refusing to disclose their basic data but by discrediting and freezing out any scientific journal which dares to publish their critics' work. It seems they are prepared to stop at nothing to stifle scientific debate in this way, not least by ensuring that no dissenting research should find its way into the pages of IPCC reports."
 
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