- Dec 14, 2020
The graph you posted shows that there is an overall warming trend aside from the noise of the short el nino/el nina cycles. Nearly half a degree C in just over 30 years. A trend like that is not compatible with reliably sustainable ecosystems over longer periods.
Those El Ninos are not noise; they were massive step-changes in heat energy delivered to the atmosphere. Before the 1998 El Nino the mean on the last graph was about -0.1 C, and afterwards it was about +0.1 C. So in one year the temperature mean was increased by about 0.2 C. That's huge. Without the 1998 and 2016 El Ninos there would be little to no positive trend in temperature over the period shown. You have absolutely zero evidence that a positive trend will continue. As I said in my post, once the oceans have given up heat that is not replaced due to decreased solar activity, then that trend could reverse. It already has for the past 5-year period according to that UAH graph.