Dessert_All_Day
Member
- Joined
- May 26, 2016
- Messages
- 406
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What is your alternative to the job?
What would such a society look like? How would it function?
You can't expect a society in general without work. It would just be a bunch of individuals caring for themselves. Like every man was stuck on a desert island with his friends. Also I completely disagree that half American jobs are going to be automated. It is not within our culture to do so.
You can't expect a society in general without work. It would just be a bunch of individuals caring for themselves. Like every man was stuck on a desert island with his friends.
Also I completely disagree that half American jobs are going to be automated. It is not within our culture to do so.
Yeah I don't think half Americans are going to lose their jobs. There would be too much back lash. People would riot non stop.I didn't say I expect a society without work. You asked what my alternative was, to which I responded leisure. That doesn't mean everyone prefers leisure--but I do.
Is that a prediction you're making?
Yeah I don't think half Americans are going to lose their jobs.
There would be too much back lash. People would riot non stop.
People will always want services, like hairdressers, cooks, cleaners, drivers...
Even if two people have no money, by swapping a haircut for a bottle of home-brewed rice beer, say, they are both better off.
It is win-win. Free trade (no coercion) leads to wealth creation. Taxation, government spending and government job creation messes with this.
I think job killing robots are the boogieman in our culture now. It is extremely difficult and expensive to replace a job with an AI. A robot that cuts hair without murdering the person (which it inevitably will as any large software program will eventually behave in abnormal or unforseen ways) will cost millions and would take all of Google to design. One that can recognize a good haircut and accurately communicate with a human as a human would is currently impossible. A worker may be given advanced tools that may make less workers necessary but in most circumstances the development and application of such tools is not cost effective.Prepare economies now for job-killing robots, IMF urges governments
People can riot all they want. It won't do any good against the military, the police, and drones, all paid or owned by the rich.
I think job killing robots are the boogieman in our culture now. It is extremely difficult and expensive to replace a job with an AI. A robot that cuts hair without murdering the person (which it inevitably will as any large software program will eventually behave in abnormal or unforseen ways) will cost millions and would take all of Google to design. One that can recognize a good haircut and accurately communicate with a human as a human would is currently impossible. A worker may be given advanced tools that may make less workers necessary but in most circumstances the development and application of such tools is not cost effective.
Also if you were to not work then how would you survive? It's entirely possible to survive without even acknowledging modern day culture but it would require much more work than living in the society.
Also if you were to not work then how would you survive? It's entirely possible to survive without even acknowledging modern day culture but it would require much more work than living in the society.
Don't you think jobs are simply a way to keep people who have surplus energy away from becoming destructive?
If people are independently useful, they can be meaningfully employed by themselves to provide some value to society. They don't need to be provided jobs. If people are not begging for jobs, then there really is no need to have politicians to dole out pork.
As far as I know, self driving cars work in very limited settings, not in overcrowded roads,they may replace long distance highway transport in developed countries but I don't see self driving cars replacing human drivers in most countries/scenarios. You would be surprised to know that a team created a self driving car back in the 90s in Europe. I haven't been upto speed with machine learning in the past two years but there have been very little breakthroughs in the algorithms in the past 20 years afaik. It's just that hardware got better.You're badly underestimating AI capabilities. Driving a car is far more complex than cutting hair and far, far more dangerous. And yet there very well may be no more human drivers within a decade.
As far as I know, self driving cars work in very limited settings, not in overcrowded roads,they may replace long distance highway transport in developed countries but I don't see self driving cars replacing human drivers in most countries/scenarios. You would be surprised to know that juergen schmidhuber's team created a self driving car back in the 90s in Europe. I haven't been upto speed with machine learning in the past two years but there have been very little breakthroughs in the algorithms in the past 20 years afaik. It's just that hardware got better.
AI has gone better but it's mostly the improved hardware that has driven the progress. The current deep neural networks models have been there for 2 decades actually. 2-3 years ago, the best general purpose AI I saw was deepmind's general game player which got nature's cover . So, I think Constatine is right about robotic hair dresser.
So, I think Constatine is right about robotic hair dresser.
I have some experience designing AI. Though not a lot. But I am a software engineer (there seems to be a lot of us on this forum). Driving a car is much more simple than cutting hair or other tasks. You essentially use various sensors to design a digital map and then program the car to move legally. You can't do much with such complex input so you create a very advanced neural network or what not then train it in real life situations until it can drive well. A team of inexperienced programmers can make a rudimentary self driving robot. Its hard but not that hard. As for the robot hair dresser it is a similar process but the input is so much more complex as is the desired outcomes. You have a constantly waving and changing terrain that consists of many tiny hair follicles that you must interact with in complex ways, you must communicate accurately with a human being regarding such a complex topic, and then you must deal with the fact that there are almost infinite potential outputs. And something that many software designers often ignore is that you should never have software as a fail safe against disastrous situations. As eventually if a program is large enough it will behave unexpectedly. This is almost a law. That Tesla driver who was decapitated was obviously foolish for putting his complete faith in the car as it encountered a real life situation it was not equipped to handle. A robot hair dresser will eventually gut somebody unless it is mechanically incapable of doing so. My overall point with this is that the general public greatly overestimates AI capabilities and that jobs will be reduced via advanced tools given to humans long before AI can deal with complex dynamic situations safely. In our time it is unlikely AI will ever cut hair or do like jobs that require human intuition.You're badly underestimating AI capabilities. Driving a car is far more complex than cutting hair and far, far more dangerous. And yet there very well may be no more human drivers within a decade.
Well if you're asking me personally, I'll never be in a situation where I'm forced to work the types of 9-5 jobs that are at risk of automation.
If you're asking it from a societal perspective, as I said previously: we're about to find out. Because a lot of peoples' livelihoods are at risk in the coming years, and they'll have no other skills to fall back on.
I have some experience designing AI. Though not a lot. But I am a software engineer (there seems to be a lot of us on this forum). Driving a car is much more simple than cutting hair or other tasks. You essentially use various sensors to design a digital map and then program the car to move legally. You can't do much with such complex input so you create a very advanced neural network or what not then train it in real life situations until it can drive well. A team of inexperienced programmers can make a rudimentary self driving robot. Its hard but not that hard. As for the robot hair dresser it is a similar process but the input is so much more complex as is the desired outcomes. You have a constantly waving and changing terrain that consists of many tiny hair follicles that you must interact with in complex ways, you must communicate accurately with a human being regarding such a complex topic, and then you must deal with the fact that there are almost infinite potential outputs.
And something that many software designers often ignore is that you should never have software as a fail safe against disastrous situations. As eventually if a program is large enough it will behave unexpectedly. This is almost a law. That Tesla driver who was decapitated was obviously foolish for putting his complete faith in the car as it encountered a real life situation it was not equipped to handle. A robot hair dresser will eventually gut somebody unless it is mechanically incapable of doing so.
My overall point with this is that the general public greatly overestimates AI capabilities and that jobs will be reduced via advanced tools given to humans long before AI can deal with complex dynamic situations safely.
In our time it is unlikely AI will ever cut hair or do like jobs that require human intuition.