Large Study Finds No Association Between MMR Vaccine And Autism

Discussion in 'Vaccines' started by jaa, Apr 21, 2015.

  1. jaa

    jaa Member

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  2. haidut

    haidut Member

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    What about this?
    http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1164046

    There is a PubMed study referenced by the CNN post. Also, why would someone who is a respected vaccine researcher and one of the original authors of the study on vaccine safety suddenly lose his cool and say there is a coverup? People don't generally do things like that unless there is a good reason or they have lost their mind.
     
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    jaa

    jaa Member

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    haidut,

    Thanks for posting. I'd like to think I have no dog in this fight aside from the truth, but by the nature of posting the initial article and your rebuttal, I've spent more time than I usually would trying to get to the bottom of things in a strange search for why that ireport article is wrong. So here are my biased findings:

    1) ireport.cnn is a user based community. The same standards of rigor applied to CNN do not seem to be applied there.

    2) That said, on of the original authors (Dr. Thompson) has admitted that study omitted data for children of African descent. Ironically, it seems the guy exposing this (Dr. Brian Hooker) and the ireport article are selectively using Dr. Thompsons statements to make the problem seem worse than it is. Here is an article on scienceblogs.com that includes a statement from Dr. Thompson.

    http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2014/ ... statement/

    3) There seem to be questions surrounding Thompsons interpretation of the data vs the other co-authors. Without knowing how to interpret it myself, or without seeing other experts weigh in, it's difficult for me to judge which sides interpretation is correct.
     
  4. haidut

    haidut Member

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    Thanks, that's my take on it too. I am just interested in hearing more about Thompson and why he decided to go public. I think the government in its fear of causing widespread vaccine avoidance is not publicizing this and thus contributing to the anti-vaccine sentiments. If they had given Thompson an opportunity to openly discuss his concerns it may have turned out that there is nothing to worry about. Instead, the study he authored has been retracted and he is nowhere to be seen or heard of.
     
  5. Giraffe

    Giraffe Member

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    They adjusted the data for sex of the child, mother's and father's age at birth, geographic location, child birth year, age since birth, and MMR receipt as a time-varying covariate. -- Those adjustments are inscrutable. Let's look at the raw data.

    They checked files from 95,727 children. They reported unadjusted RRs of ASD (cumulative incidence rate ratios) associated with receiving either 1 or 2 MMR doses (vsno doses) at ages 2, 3, 4, and 5 years separately in children with and without older siblings who had ASD."

    This is the first thing I don't understand. The number of autists they report in table 2 is a lot higher. Why not exclude the kids who had ASD to begin with?

    Another thing that stuck out was the percentage of ASD kids in each age group. It was quite small among the 2-year-old children and climbed with age as would be expected:
    • %ASD unvaccinated 5-year-old kids = 8 x %ASD unvaccinated 2-year-olds
    • %ASD 5-year-old kids with two vaccines = 8 x %ASD vaccinated 2-year-olds
    • %ASD 5-year-old kids with one vaccine = 12 x %ASD vaccinated 2-year-olds.
    You would think that parents who believe that their child became autistic after the first shot, would not go and get a second one. This could explain the higher number among those who had received only one shot.

    This possibility however was not discussed by the authors. I think it is lame for a study that claims to check for a link between the occurence of ASD by MMR vaccine status, even more so as a higher rise in the vaccinated group was also seen among the 3- and 4-year-old kids.
     
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