The Number Of Cases Is MEANINGLESS. Bringing People Back To Reality

[boris]

People still use the number of corona cases as an argument during the ongoing crisis. But....

....the cases are a absolutely meaningless metric. Think about it...... what does the number of cases tell you actually?
There is an important factor missing to derive any meaning from the number of cases, that is the number of people tested. The positivity rate among the tested, that would actually tell you something. The number of cases alone holds ZERO information.

Why do they only talk about the cases? Well the german government has a corona strategy paper that tells you exactly why. Because reporting solely the number of cases is one of the tools to create the necessary fear so people comply with drastic measures (the positivity rate would bring people back to reality).

Of course this is highly problematic, because if you only hear about the cases and not the actual positivity rate among the tested, there is all kinds of manipulation possible. Just double the tests and the cases will double.

Don't believe they would abuse that?

Here are the numbers from the RKI (german CDC) of the lockdown week.

(1st row: week of the year. 2nd row: number of tests per week. 3rd row: positive tests.)

You can see how they bumped up the numbers just by almost tripling the tests in one week from 127k to 348k. This bumped up the cases from 7k to 23k. The RKI chief said "we have exponential growth, if we don't do anything, millions will get sick and can not be treated because of overburdened hospitals".
He implied a growth of new infections of 300%. The actual growth was 0.9% (The positivity rate grew from 5.9% to 6.8%).
The only thing growing exponentially were the tests.


Who might have come up with that idea ?

(How To Lie With Statistics)

I found that any corona believers arguments stopped after confronting them with this (minus the Gates thing, because that is too deep a trigger for most ). Is there similar proof for other countries?

 

[Twohandsondeck]

Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight

 

[boris]

Thanks to you too @Twohandsondeck

 

[Hairfedup]

Wonderful post man.

 

[Peater Piper]

JHU tracks positivity rate for the USA, both at the national and state level. It bottomed out at 4.4% in mid-June and currently sits at 8.5%.

Daily State-by-State Testing Trends

 

[DennisX]

It's not cases it's total deaths by all causes. Below is a graph from the CDC. The orange line is the 5 year average of deaths from all causes. bars above that line are mostly due to various flu virues. 42% of the peak in covid-19 deaths above the line were due to NY,NJ,MA. NY,NJ,MA are only 10% of the population. IN addition, ~50% of the deaths occured in nursing and assisted living home. As can be seen from the graph c19 is going away. Also as can be seen from the graph is that the number of deaths is not due from the states opening up by rather from the demonstartions and riots in June in 100s of cities where the portestesters were in close proximity shouting and spreading the virus. We should thank the protesters for helping us reach herd immunity faster.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

 

[Lejeboca]

JHU tracks positivity rate for the USA, both at the national and state level. It bottomed out at 4.4% in mid-June and currently sits at 8.5%.

Daily State-by-State Testing Trends

I agree with @DennisX that, since all the "Covid data" and test reliability are fishy (cf., e.g., US "covid deaths" between JHU and CDC, which are

Spoiler: [B]5,946[/B]

and 1,513, respectively, in the past week July 12-18; taken from
United States and Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) )
the only thing that we can rely on to see whether pandemic and fear mongering are still warranted is the total number of deaths, which is well below the trends and average-year projections.
Moreover the rate of deaths to covid tests is also going down from which one my imply fewer covid-attributed deaths.

 

[Peater Piper]

the only thing that we can rely on to see whether pandemic and fear mongering are still warranted is the total number of deaths, which is well below the trends and average-year projections.

But both Europe and the USA are currently above their average death trends, even DennisX's graph shows as much.

 

[mrchibbs]

Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight

I concur, wonderful work. The insanity is still going strong I find, and this good information helps keep a clear head.

 

[Energizer]

Spoiler: Fauci the hypocrite:

 

[tankasnowgod]

It's not cases it's total deaths by all causes. Below is a graph from the CDC. The orange line is the 5 year average of deaths from all causes. bars above that line are mostly due to various flu virues. 42% of the peak in covid-19 deaths above the line were due to NY,NJ,MA. NY,NJ,MA are only 10% of the population. IN addition, ~50% of the deaths occured in nursing and assisted living home. As can be seen from the graph c19 is going away. Also as can be seen from the graph is that the number of deaths is not due from the states opening up by rather from the demonstartions and riots in June in 100s of cities where the portestesters were in close proximity shouting and spreading the virus. We should thank the protesters for helping us reach herd immunity faster.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

View attachment 18729

Isn't it interesting how all those excess deaths only started AFTER lockdown experiments were enacted? And make no mistake, they are an experiment.

I don't think it has anything to do with a virus. You can even check my history for a thread called "The Health Cost of Lockdowns," which was started right about the same time.

I think that "spike" is due to suicides, domestic violence, excess stress (especially in the elderly in nursing homes), forced isolation, and outright murder that was taking place in hospitals like Elmhurst.

Of course, some of those could simply be file drawer problems and reporting delays, which is also to be expected when you lay off tens of thousands of healthcare workers.

And, although they are a criminal organization, the CDC is verrrrry careful with their language. Notice the word "Associated?" They will never outright claim that COVID is responsible for this, but will do everything to imply it.

 

[Orome]

But both Europe and the USA are currently above their average death trends, even DennisX's graph shows as much.

At least in Germany this is not the case:

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt Germany.

 

[aussiebaldguy]

The media in australia has started shaming anyone who questions the official narrative. But there are also hordes of chanters that join in the mockery.

 

[Orome]

The media in australia has started shaming anyone who questions the official narrative. But there are also hordes of chanters that join in the mockery.

This is the same in Germany. As soon as you critically question the offical narrative, you are immediately discredited (and even very often put in the Nazi corner) and your opinion is no longer worth much. See what the media did with Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg.
No freedom of speech anymore nowdays if you don't follow the herd.

 

[tankasnowgod]

This is the same in Germany. As soon as you critically question the offical narrative, you are immediately discredited (and even very often put in the Nazi corner) and your opinion is no longer worth much. See what the media did with Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg.
No freedom of speech anymore nowdays if you don't follow the herd.

This has been a long standing problem in health research in general. Same thing happened to Peter Duesberg by questioning the official "HIV equals AIDS" narrative. If you read Jon Rappoport's interview with an anonymous vaccine researcher, you can see that the problem runs even deeper- Interview with a Retired Vaccine Researcher « Jon Rappoport's Blog

No doubt it's happening to more and more people, at a very rapid pace. Maybe this is a good thing, as it will cause people to take notice. Censorship and silencing only works when it's done in a very low key manner. Otherwise, it often boomerangs, and gets more publicity for what is trying to be supressed, the so called "Streisand Effect."

 

[jay123]

@boris good post. I have to agree and I have been telling this to others for months that this would happen. The validity of the test is very questionable as others have said above. I am making a guess here but I would imagine that Germany is using the same Cycle Threshold Value for the test as the USA and Japan along with other countries. I wrote a post about the cycle threshold value and the problem Taiwan had with Japan over a so called postive case. You can read about it here on the forum:

Covid-19, PCR Test Validity And Second Surge Sham?

From what I see it appears that the test can be manipulated.

 

[PopRBop]

Letting the journalists and the media, who are admittedly trained storytellers and notoriously bad at math, handle statistics is like allowing a toddler to handle a loaded gun.

And, don't even get me started on the ginormous ignorance of politicians who are mostly attorneys trained in constructs of legal fiction: where's there's a law, there's a legal reality.

 

[boris]

So called "cases" (aka positive tests) vs. deaths.

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) – the data

 

[peateats1]

Great post! I also read that if you've had the cold recently you would test positive for covid because the test isn't that specific and the cold is also a coronavirus. I don't know if that is true, but if it is, it would definitely cause the numbers to inflate.