Is the Sex Recession Turning into a Great Sex Depression?
In this post, I analyze data from the past four waves of the NSFG, spanning the years 2011 to 2019, exploring both year-long celibacy for men and women, and longer intervals of sexlessness for women.1 These data are compared to the more familiar estimates from the GSS. Year-long celibacy is...
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There isn’t really good evidence that the number of celibate adults under the age of 50 has steadily grown over the past 10 years. Rates of sexlessness are highest in the most recent waves of both NSFG and the GSS, but there’s no way of knowing whether this is merely a blip, or a sign of things to come.
That doesn’t detract from the fact almost 30% of single respondents of either survey report not having sex for the past year. Since sex is almost always a precursor to a long-term relationship, this means that a meaningfully large minority isn’t even in the ballpark of finding a partner. Meanwhile, about one in seven never-married adults do not aspire to marriage. Some portion of these marriage-eschewers is probably missing out on the potential for a fulfilling sexual relationship outside the bounds of matrimony—and perhaps even a relationship that might ultimately change their minds about marriage.
These trends here have other implications for human well-being. Most people want to be married; an even larger majority aspires to some sort of intimate relationship. Furthermore, Americans are having fewer children than they’d like. Even when sex doesn’t lead directly to children—most obviously, for same-sex couples—it may advance a relationship that will eventually result in childbirth or adoption. On the plus side of the ledger, few people will dispute the benefits of fewer unwanted pregnancies—a subset of unintended pregnancies—and fewer teen pregnancies.
More broadly, the Sex Recession tells us something about modern life. We’ve been bowling alone for decades now, withdrawing from various social institutions. Perhaps withdrawal from sex is the logical next step? Some Americans have somehow sublimated, submerged, or substituted their innately human desire for sex in lives increasingly lived online, in social media, and in video games. This trend has only gathered speed in the isolation imposed by the Coronavirus pandemic (and early indications are less than encouraging). What will happen when we emerge, perhaps blinking and unsteady on our feet, from our annus horribilis of isolation? Will there be an uptick in sex, or will we just have gotten out of the habit?