How To Explain Excess Deaths This Year?

[encerent]

Talking to a friend about covid and he asked how do you explain expected deaths if covid is nothing unusual?

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

 

[mrchibbs]

I personally don't trust these numbers, as I've seen too many instances of falsification of covid-19 deaths over the last 6 months

 

[JKX]

Check out Ivor Cummins youtube channel.

2018 was a very mild year for respiratory deaths. This would probably have left a larger population of the at risk elderly alive who may not otherwise have been.

As these things are cyclical it's reasonable that a mild year could be followed up by an unduly harsh year. Nature restoring balance so to speak. Ivor has several videos presenting stats which back this up.

 

[AdoTintor]

to argue with sheeple in real time is tricky unless you know all the standard things they will say. some of them know all the lines. all the counter arguments that sort of sound reasonable. so have to be well prepped to make headway.

this seems like good up to date presentation that goes through excess deaths etc

 

[tankasnowgod]

Talking to a friend about covid and he asked how do you explain expected deaths if covid is nothing unusual?

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

You don't need a fake virus to explain Government Homicide-

(PDF) All-cause mortality during COVID-19: No plague and a likely signature of mass homicide by government response

"The latest data of all-cause mortality by week does not show a winter-burden mortality that is statistically larger than for past winters. There was no plague. However, a sharp “COVID peak” is present in the data, for several jurisdictions in Europe and the USA.

This all-cause-mortality “COVID peak” has unique characteristics:
• Its sharpness, with a full-width at half-maximum of only approximately 4 weeks;
• Its lateness in the infectious-season cycle, surging after week-11 of 2020, which is unprecedented for any large sharp-peak feature;
• The synchronicity of the onset of its surge, across continents, and immediately following the WHO declaration of the pandemic; and
• Its USA state-to-state absence or presence for the same viral ecology on the same territory, being correlated with nursing home events and government actions rather than any known viral strain discernment.

These “COVID peak” characteristics, and a review of the epidemiological history, and of relevant knowledge about viral respiratory diseases, lead me to postulate that the “COVID peak” results from an accelerated mass homicide of immune-vulnerable individuals, and individuals made more immune-vulnerable, by government and institutional actions, rather than being an epidemiological signature of a novel virus, irrespective of the degree to which the virus is novel from the perspective of viral speciation."

Amazing that a "virus" can show up at the EXACT time that a Government issues novel shutdown orders! Amazing that no one thinks MEDICAL EXPERIMENTS like Lockdowns and Forced Masking won't have any negative repercussions! Amazing that the suicide rate can double, triple, quadruple or more, and no one cares!

COVID doesn't have to be anything unusual, or even exist, for that matter (seeing as there is no proof it was ever even "discovered" in the first place). Government officials and media made sure this year was "unusual" with their punishing use of lockdowns to force suicides and destroy businesses, and the media with their now 11 month non-stop propaganda campaign.

Also, the initial study you linked to has a HUGE flaw. It says deaths "from" COVID, but the CDC never tracked that or implied any causality. It's deaths WITH or ASSOCIATED from COVID, which is how kidney failure patients, those with advanced cancer, and people dying in motorcycle crashes can be counted among the "COVID deaths."

 

[Drareg]

Talking to a friend about covid and he asked how do you explain expected deaths if covid is nothing unusual?

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

What you should explain to him is that the numbers don’t justify lockdowns, mandatory mask wearing and authoritarian legislation in general , it doesn’t justify the bank bailouts or big corporate bailouts to include the big pharma legislated windfall with indemnification, all paid for by the tax payer.

It doesn’t justify a "new normal" that just so happens to resemble a panopticon global society that benefits the billionaire class.
It doesn’t justify the complete ignorance of the MSM and governments to Bill Gates’s relationship to the child sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

 

[BearWithMe]

Talking to a friend about covid and he asked how do you explain expected deaths if covid is nothing unusual?

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

Stress.

All the lockdowns, mandatory face masks, social distancing, mandatory testing, horror news stories, lost jobs and economical struggles are incredibly stressful.

Plus all the deaths directly caused by medical interventions - mechanical ventilation and remdesivir, especially.

 

[Kozak]

Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26–October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS)

Read carefully. "Excess death" is counted against the "expected number of death" (statistical model)!!!
Why not just compare to last years death for the same period??? Why would you complicate things so much??? Why???

 

[Kram]

Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26–October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS)

Read carefully. "Excess death" is counted against the "expected number of death" (statistical model)!!!
Why not just compare to last years death for the same period??? Why would you complicate things so much??? Why???

I also had these same questions. Comparing to prior years, excess mortality is ~330k based on the below data. While I don't agree with anything that has to do with lockdowns or social distancing, I recently had covid and it was probably the worst (and strangest) illness I have dealt with.

Total U.S. mortality from Jan 1 through Sept 30 of each year (from CDC data files):

2017: 2,037,582
2018: 2,129,649
2019: 2,128,698
2020: 2,429,584

2017-2019 Average through Sept 30: 2,098,643
2020 Excess Mortality through Sept 30: ~330k

 

[mayweatherking]

Talking to a friend about covid and he asked how do you explain expected deaths if covid is nothing unusual?

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...

bc it's deadlier and spreads faster than the flu, good on you on doing your own research and looking into it yourself.

 

[Kozak]

I also had these same questions. Comparing to prior years, excess mortality is ~330k based on the below data. While I don't agree with anything that has to do with lockdowns or social distancing, I recently had covid and it was probably the worst (and strangest) illness I have dealt with.

Total U.S. mortality from Jan 1 through Sept 30 of each year (from CDC data files):

2017: 2,037,582
2018: 2,129,649
2019: 2,128,698
2020: 2,429,584

2017-2019 Average through Sept 30: 2,098,643
2020 Excess Mortality through Sept 30: ~330k

Could you share the link please.

 

[Kram]

Could you share the link please.

It may have been from this link but I forget exactly where COVID-19 Death Data and Resources - National Vital Statistics System

The file was titled weekly_excess_deaths_data. Below is the monthly data

Month Year Deaths
1 2017 178,744
2 2017 234,688
3 2017 228,906
4 2017 272,644
5 2017 208,511
6 2017 205,153
7 2017 251,689
8 2017 200,536
9 2017 256,711
1 2018 261,745
2 2018 240,233
3 2018 281,512
4 2018 218,780
5 2018 207,895
6 2018 257,024
7 2018 204,312
8 2018 202,941
9 2018 255,207
1 2019 233,375
2 2019 233,194
3 2019 288,778
4 2019 220,724
5 2019 215,232
6 2019 263,714
7 2019 208,192
8 2019 256,987
9 2019 208,502
1 2020 239,321
2 2020 295,006
3 2020 240,325
4 2020 301,678
5 2020 323,290
6 2020 234,367
7 2020 250,340
8 2020 313,706
9 2020 231,551

 

[Kozak]

It may have been from this link but I forget exactly where COVID-19 Death Data and Resources - National Vital Statistics System

The file was titled weekly_excess_deaths_data. Below is the monthly data

Month Year Deaths
1 2017 178,744
2 2017 234,688
3 2017 228,906
4 2017 272,644
5 2017 208,511
6 2017 205,153
7 2017 251,689
8 2017 200,536
9 2017 256,711
1 2018 261,745
2 2018 240,233
3 2018 281,512
4 2018 218,780
5 2018 207,895
6 2018 257,024
7 2018 204,312
8 2018 202,941
9 2018 255,207
1 2019 233,375
2 2019 233,194
3 2019 288,778
4 2019 220,724
5 2019 215,232
6 2019 263,714
7 2019 208,192
8 2019 256,987
9 2019 208,502
1 2020 239,321
2 2020 295,006
3 2020 240,325
4 2020 301,678
5 2020 323,290
6 2020 234,367
7 2020 250,340
8 2020 313,706
9 2020 231,551

Thanks.
You see this is the same "Excess death" - not an actual statistics. It's a CDC model.
What I'd like to see is the number of death certificates issued this year vs last year.

 

[Kram]

Thanks.
You see this is the same "Excess death" - not an actual statistics. It's a CDC model.
What I'd like to see is the number of death certificates issued this year vs last year.

I believe this is the data you are looking for. This is total mortality and represents all deaths from Jan 1 - Sept 30 in the US. Not sure why the file was labeled weekly excess deaths. Total mortality in the U.S. in 2018 was 2,839,205 which is why this data is ~3/4 of that (since it is 9 months)

 

[blob69]

Here's a long article explaining excess deaths as a consequence of toxic treatments, particularly huge doses of hydroxychloroquine: COVID-19 (excess) mortalities: viral cause impossible—drugs with key role in about 200,000 extra deaths in Europe and the US alone

 

[blob69]

I recently had covid and it was probably the worst (and strangest) illness I have dealt with.

What were the symptoms you had? I know a few people here who were told they have covid-19 and claim it was quite bad. But when they describe how they felt, it sounds just like a bad flu (and they are now perfectly fine). I remember my family having a bad flu and it often felt like you are dying and every bone in your body hurt. I think there is a big psychological element here because if you are told you have a horrible, deadly illness, you will be much more conscious and suspicious of the bad symptoms as you would be if you were told you just have the flu. Plus people avoid you like the plague and you are left alone with these symptoms in many cases.

 

[Kram]

What were the symptoms you had? I know a few people here who were told they have covid-19 and claim it was quite bad. But when they describe how they felt, it sounds just like a bad flu (and they are now perfectly fine). I remember my family having a bad flu and it often felt like you are dying and every bone in your body hurt. I think there is a big psychological element here because if you are told you have a horrible, deadly illness, you will be much more conscious and suspicious of the bad symptoms as you would be if you were told you just have the flu. Plus people avoid you like the plague and you are left alone with these symptoms in many cases.

Some symptoms were similar to the flu (fever, body aches, fatigue) but also had shortness of breath (I couldn't walk my dog without almost passing out) and completely lost my sense of taste and smell which still hasn't fully returned. It also took me ~10 days to feel more normal. I have had the flu before, and this was a little different, at least for me.

 

[BearWithMe]

Some symptoms were similar to the flu (fever, body aches, fatigue) but also had shortness of breath (I couldn't walk my dog without almost passing out) and completely lost my sense of taste and smell which still hasn't fully returned. It also took me ~10 days to feel more normal. I have had the flu before, and this was a little different, at least for me.

Shortness of breath is a symptom that is the easiest to trigger psychosomatically. That's why they choose it.

 

[LLight]

Read carefully. "Excess death" is counted against the "expected number of death" (statistical model)!!!
Why not just compare to last years death for the same period??? Why would you complicate things so much??? Why???

You could compare with last year death count only but this would not indicate by how much this is in deviation with respect to the past. When you consider a statistical distribution, this allows you to integrate the "natural" variations in death that exist over the years into the analysis.

Edit: when you do such a statistical analysis, you can find that there were death excess in the winter of 2017, 2018 and 2019.

 

[Kram]

Shortness of breath is a symptom that is the easiest to trigger psychosomatically. That's why they choose it.

lol, you are trying to tell me what symptoms I had from an illness over the internet? Do you realize how ridiculous that is? I'm not even sure shortness of breath is that common among people infected with covid. Most people seem to be asymptomatic