COVID-19 excess mortality re-examined

Hugh Johnson

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COVID-19 excess mortality re-examined​


Abstract - In this report I estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on total mortality by examining newspaper obituaries in North America and interment data from United States national cemeteries. Excess mortality is estimated using a regression analysis. The results show that the official reports of total and excess deaths are incorrect and that the evidence of excess mortality is not consistent with a severe viral pandemic. I then survey the COVID-19 research literature and attempt to identify data showing differential morbidity or mortality caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This attempt is unsuccessful. Finally I examine the possibility that COVID-19, the disease purportedly caused by this virus, does not exist.



Statistically, COVID killed no one in the US.
 

Fred

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Also, if there was excess mortality, it wouldn't prove the existence of a pandemic. Excess deaths could easily be the result of social/medical chaos caused by lockdowns ... treatment deaths (vents, remdesivir, induced comas, etc), and, most commonly overlooked ... population growth trends, which guarantee that more people will die every year (especially considering the fact that Boomers are now in the highest-percentage death window - roughly age 70-85).
 

haidut

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COVID-19 excess mortality re-examined​


Abstract - In this report I estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on total mortality by examining newspaper obituaries in North America and interment data from United States national cemeteries. Excess mortality is estimated using a regression analysis. The results show that the official reports of total and excess deaths are incorrect and that the evidence of excess mortality is not consistent with a severe viral pandemic. I then survey the COVID-19 research literature and attempt to identify data showing differential morbidity or mortality caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This attempt is unsuccessful. Finally I examine the possibility that COVID-19, the disease purportedly caused by this virus, does not exist.



Statistically, COVID killed no one in the US.

And now add to his findings the officially recognized fact that at least 1/3 of excess deaths were not due to COVID-19.

So, if he found no evidence for a pandemic with the officially reported X number of excess deaths, this means it is even more impossible for a pandemic to have occurred with 33% fewer excess deaths than X. Something already confirmed by an expert statistician in JHU, so the picture of the epic fraud is quite clear.
 

Kram

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I don't support the covid narrative but there was clearly excess mortality in the US in 2020 (unless the data from the CDC is completely made up).

All Cause Mortality
2016: 2,731,461
2017: 2,810,580
2018: 2,838,772
2019: 2,852,325
2020: 3,440,702 (w/ 357,893 covid deaths)

I didn't read the full paper but he states on page 5 that "The second is that most of the series returned to baseline in June 2020 and that there have been few signs of excess mortality since then." This is 100% incorrect looking at weekly or monthly data and comparing to previous years.
 

Kozak

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Guys a good example is Ukraine. ~56000 "covid deaths" in 2020 yet total number of deaths shows about 10000 fewer deaths in 2020 compered to 2019.
It's all BS.
 
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Hugh Johnson

Hugh Johnson

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I don't support the covid narrative but there was clearly excess mortality in the US in 2020 (unless the data from the CDC is completely made up).

All Cause Mortality
2016: 2,731,461
2017: 2,810,580
2018: 2,838,772
2019: 2,852,325
2020: 3,440,702 (w/ 357,893 covid deaths)

I didn't read the full paper but he states on page 5 that "The second is that most of the series returned to baseline in June 2020 and that there have been few signs of excess mortality since then." This is 100% incorrect looking at weekly or monthly data and comparing to previous years.
I understood he was challenging CDC data. However, this is a rather complex paper, and you would need to read it carefully to challenge it. It could be wrong of course. See here:


"Globally, the disease is reported to be responsible for over four million deaths to date. Aggregate mortality data from nations around the world are provided by their respective governments. Internet web sites like the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard [4] and Our World in Data [5] are warehouses of official government statistics. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report weekly counts of total deaths and an estimation of excess deaths due to COVID-19 [6]. Government bureaucracies are not infallible, however. In response to a scandal enveloping its state governor, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) lowered its count of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes and blamed its original, erroneous count on “duplicative and erroneous entries in the data reported directly by nursing homes to NYSDOH in daily surveys and matching records across data systems that do not share unique identifiers” [7]. Whether the first or the second count more closely reflects political expediency in New York State hardly matters here. The incident is a cautionary tale about the difficulty of counting COVID-19 deaths by aggregating data from divergent organizations with various levels of hierarchy in a system whose actors may be incompetent or biased. The scientist’s first concern is data integrity. Accordingly, I set about to see if alternative measures of mortality during the pandemic would corroborate the official statistics"
 

Kram

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I understood he was challenging CDC data. However, this is a rather complex paper, and you would need to read it carefully to challenge it. It could be wrong of course. See here:


"Globally, the disease is reported to be responsible for over four million deaths to date. Aggregate mortality data from nations around the world are provided by their respective governments. Internet web sites like the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard [4] and Our World in Data [5] are warehouses of official government statistics. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report weekly counts of total deaths and an estimation of excess deaths due to COVID-19 [6]. Government bureaucracies are not infallible, however. In response to a scandal enveloping its state governor, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) lowered its count of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes and blamed its original, erroneous count on “duplicative and erroneous entries in the data reported directly by nursing homes to NYSDOH in daily surveys and matching records across data systems that do not share unique identifiers” [7]. Whether the first or the second count more closely reflects political expediency in New York State hardly matters here. The incident is a cautionary tale about the difficulty of counting COVID-19 deaths by aggregating data from divergent organizations with various levels of hierarchy in a system whose actors may be incompetent or biased. The scientist’s first concern is data integrity. Accordingly, I set about to see if alternative measures of mortality during the pandemic would corroborate the official statistics"
Gotcha. At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if all the data was completely made up but that would be a pretty difficult task.
 

David PS

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The Economist magazine just updated its figures for excess mortality. Sweden has the lowest excess mortality in all of Europe in 2021.

 

RealNeat

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I hope Genevieve Briand will do another ACM review for 2021, then again anyone can do it.


 
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Lord Cola

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I hope Genevieve Briand will do another ACM review for 2021, then again anyone can do it.


What is her explanation for the purported increase in deaths from all causes? This only seems to address how deaths from non-covid causes were labeled as "covid deaths".
 

Fred

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What is her explanation for the purported increase in deaths from all causes? This only seems to address how deaths from non-covid causes were labeled as "covid deaths".
Excess deaths tell us nothing. Did people die of covid, or deadly covid treatments like vents and antivirals and induced comas, etc.? What about population growth trends - how many "excess deaths" were there in each of the last 10 years? Did cancer go up or down in 2020? What about heart disease? What is the effects of MSM-induced stress on these conditions? What about the zero flu deaths? How many extra suicides, drug overdoses, violent crime victims, etc. How many died from stress, isolation, or missed treatments?
 

RealNeat

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Excess deaths tell us nothing. Did people die of covid, or deadly covid treatments like vents and antivirals and induced comas, etc.? What about population growth trends - how many "excess deaths" were there in each of the last 10 years? Did cancer go up or down in 2020? What about heart disease? What is the effects of MSM-induced stress on these conditions? What about the zero flu deaths? How many extra suicides, drug overdoses, violent crime victims, etc. How many died from stress, isolation, or missed treatments?
Yes, most of the fact checkers and critics of her data cant provide any good rebuttals. They seem to intentionally dismiss or completely ignore these important points. Something as simple as population growth wasn't initially considered.
 

RealNeat

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I hope Genevieve Briand will do another ACM review for 2021, then again anyone can do it.


And to add complexity to Genevieve's endeavors if she so chooses to engage, this is now happening to try and mask the real pandemic that has arisen from the false pandemic: The Pandemic of the PCR-Negative C-Word-Like Illness
 
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Lord Cola

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Population increase is a large factor along with others, addressed here if you haven't seen;


View: https://youtu.be/3TKJN61aflI

I'll take a look at this. I heard that the "excess deaths" of 2020, which were used to assert the reality of the purported pandemic were furtively deleted at the end of that year, but I did not come across any detailed info on that. Do you happen to know anything about that?
 

Fred

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Yes, most of the fact checkers and critics of her data cant provide any good rebuttals. They seem to intentionally dismiss or completely ignore these important points. Something as simple as population growth wasn't initially considered.

I would add that the baby boomers are now entering the highest-probability death window (most people die in their 70s/80s). So we have a 50% increase in births [baby boom] now entering the accelerated death phase ... this HAS to lead to an acceleration in deaths this decade.
 
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Donttreadonme

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Population increase is a large factor along with others, addressed here if you haven't seen;


View: https://youtu.be/3TKJN61aflI

Exactly! Look how many illegal aliens walk into the country each and every year. What is the number for last year? 2 million? Of course the death count is increased.

Plus the baby boomers are now the death boomers. A population boom equals a death boom. There's no escape.
 
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