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Dan Sirotkin's substack
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I've never read his main article but I understand he believes that SARS-CoV-2 is stemming from a Live Attenuated Vaccine which will progressively "regress" to an original dangerous virus.
I'm not sure if the gain of pathogenicity is expected to be linear while the virus mutates backwards but I'm not sure we are witnessing what should have happened if his theory was true (but maybe we are in an intermediary variant that is weaker while the next one will be much worse). He seems to be right that the virus become more and more transmissible though, which will be an issue if the pathogenicity know a large increase.
When I read some of his tweets, I found him a bit paranoid but I don't know the full story. I've also read tweets of someone showing results of a study (about spike structure and evolution, that I didn't understand at all) that would imply that what was shown wasn't consistent with a Live Attenuated Vaccine. IIRC, this person was also a bit pessimistic because it appeared to her that the virus (at least Omicron) was evolving towards a less immunogenic form.
I'm not sure if the gain of pathogenicity is expected to be linear while the virus mutates backwards but I'm not sure we are witnessing what should have happened if his theory was true (but maybe we are in an intermediary variant that is weaker while the next one will be much worse). He seems to be right that the virus become more and more transmissible though, which will be an issue if the pathogenicity know a large increase.
When I read some of his tweets, I found him a bit paranoid but I don't know the full story. I've also read tweets of someone showing results of a study (about spike structure and evolution, that I didn't understand at all) that would imply that what was shown wasn't consistent with a Live Attenuated Vaccine. IIRC, this person was also a bit pessimistic because it appeared to her that the virus (at least Omicron) was evolving towards a less immunogenic form.
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