Ukraine Crisis

Hugh Johnson

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Bingo!
And, unrelated to the Ukraine war, that same principle is involved in what passes for artificial "intelligence" these days. Completely detached from reality, yet cunningly convincing enough (again, by manipulating symbols) to get people to part with their money and/or freedom.
Perhaps. I like the "AI" they made. It's IMHO just a huge copy-paste machine and it's great for menial mental work. Like machines are great for menial physical labour.

Maybe it will make things worse, but our masters have had the money to hire people to fool us for a long time. I doubt it changes much for them.
 

burtlancast

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gd81

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Bingo!
And, unrelated to the Ukraine war, that same principle is involved in what passes for artificial "intelligence" these days. Completely detached from reality, yet cunningly convincing enough (again, by manipulating symbols) to get people to part with their money and/or freedom.

Looks like the bubble has burst on AI. The west has nothing to offer, it's broke af, it lost in Ukraine. Perfect storm for WWIII in the middle east.

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burtlancast

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How many Ukrainian soldiers do you think have died Burt? and how many Russians?

How would i know ?

But what's very clear is that Ukrainians value the life of their soldiers much more than Russia.

When a country who has a long and proven track record for disregarding the life of it's own citizens starts invading it's neighbor, no good things will happen.

Shame on all those who defend Putin's regime.
 

Hugh Johnson

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Looks like the bubble has burst on AI. The west has nothing to offer, it's broke af, it lost in Ukraine. Perfect storm for WWIII in the middle east.

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You are overstating the case. AI is a bezzle, it is not yet quite as valuable as it ll very useful. There are people working 5+ six figure jobs at a time using AI, because those paper pushing jobs require very little actual intelligence.

AI stocks going up or down proves little. The stock market is not an accurate representation of anything, especially in the short term. China and Russia trade with us, because there is actually a lot that the west buys. The rot is the worst in top top of the political hierarchy, but the institutions still work well, including corporations. The middle and bottom of the hierarchy do their jobs still.
 

haidut

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Perhaps. I like the "AI" they made. It's IMHO just a huge copy-paste machine and it's great for menial mental work. Like machines are great for menial physical labour.

Maybe it will make things worse, but our masters have had the money to hire people to fool us for a long time. I doubt it changes much for them.

Unfortunately, that "AI" is being used by govt officials are an "oracle" of sorts to devise all sorts of political and economic policies, including planning/driving the war in Ukraine..and soon also in Gaza and any other war the West is involved in. And since the people in power usually blindly trust this "AI" vastly outperforms humans on such strategic planning tasks, the potential for massive mistakes and even global war cannot be underestimated. Most of the people in charge do not understand "AI". To them it is not simply a copy/paste machine, but a cyber "God" - millions times "smarter" than humans when it comes to planning/running a war. Can't say I am surprised, it was bound to happen, considering the inverse correlation between IQ and govt/corporate ladder. It may explain why we still have not seen peace in Ukraine despite the obvious trend/outcome of the military activities so far, but instead we keep seeing more and more truly insane escalations. Sounds like something a politically-trained, schizo-hallucinating, reality-detached "AI" would recommend.
@gd81
 

haidut

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Looks like the bubble has burst on AI. The west has nothing to offer, it's broke af, it lost in Ukraine. Perfect storm for WWIII in the middle east.

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I agree, but I think it is worse than that. Not only did the West put all its (remaining) eggs into one basket (fake "AI"), but it is also now using this "AI" to plan/run geopolitics (and even domestic affairs) as well. Yeah, scary thought and probably explains why we are about to enter WW3 - the people in charge are "informed" by a hallucinating, hyper-abstract, linguistic engine that is extremely good at spitting out highly convincing, yet potentially suicidal verbal masterpieces on war/geopolitics strategy. And since the people in power are predominantly of the "second-signal" type, they equate superb verbal ability with superb intelligence and are likely to blindly listen to whatever that "AI" they are using tells them. Even if it is something as insane as "bomb Iran and the war will be over by Christmas, just like WW I".
 

Hugh Johnson

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Unfortunately, that "AI" is being used by govt officials are an "oracle" of sorts to devise all sorts of political and economic policies, including planning/driving the war in Ukraine..and soon also in Gaza and any other war the West is involved in. And since the people in power usually blindly trust this "AI" vastly outperforms humans on such strategic planning tasks, the potential for massive mistakes and even global war cannot be underestimated. Most of the people in charge do not understand "AI". To them it is not simply a copy/paste machine, but a cyber "God" - millions times "smarter" than humans when it comes to planning/running a war. Can't say I am surprised, it was bound to happen, considering the inverse correlation between IQ and govt/corporate ladder. It may explain why we still have not seen peace in Ukraine despite the obvious trend/outcome of the military activities so far, but instead we keep seeing more and more truly insane escalations. Sounds like something a politically-trained, schizo-hallucinating, reality-detached "AI" would recommend.
@gd81
It's a good point, and I'm don't quite agree.

Iraq and Afghanistan wars were strategic and geopolitical disasters. Our masters are only competent in climbing hierarchy, and have gotten ever more incompetent in actually accomplishing anything else. AI has at most accelerated this development. It may even end up counteracting it, as it allows the average person to speed up menial mental tasks, something that used to be the primary claim to expert authority.

In fact I would argue that to successfully navigating the real world, as opposed to the social world of the hierarchy, requires a commitment to truth. And such a commitment makes a person a threat all those whose power is built on lies and social climbing.

I recently read a discussion on the "retardpill" in which people claimed that acting stupid both made their jobs easier, and got them promotions and raises. It kind of makes sense. In a degenerate hierarchy no one ever allow you or I near any position of influence. We could not be trusted. What they need are those who are reflexively obedient. Janet Yellen is said to have been just like that, a highly obedient dimwit.

The people on top are certainly high IQ. But their IQ is aimed at curating the people around them and navigating the social environment.

USSR is likely to have been like this at the end, at least in the political domain. People were allegedly picked mostly for obedience and the few independent thinkers were there to loot the system.

This however did not extend to all domains. Soviet technology and military were very capable, and there are domains in which the west does seem to maintain an edge. AI and IT being competent domains.

I don't find the Naked Capitalism discussion on this rn, but I found this one. IQ stuff seems bs but it's a thought out view.

It seems to be a common thing in hierarchy that it degrades. And it's happened in a similar way with Rome, and China and apparently all of them. I don't see AI as significant in this pattern.
 

BrianF

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It's a good point, and I'm don't quite agree.

Iraq and Afghanistan wars were strategic and geopolitical disasters. Our masters are only competent in climbing hierarchy, and have gotten ever more incompetent in actually accomplishing anything else. AI has at most accelerated this development. It may even end up counteracting it, as it allows the average person to speed up menial mental tasks, something that used to be the primary claim to expert authority.

In fact I would argue that to successfully navigating the real world, as opposed to the social world of the hierarchy, requires a commitment to truth. And such a commitment makes a person a threat all those whose power is built on lies and social climbing.

I recently read a discussion on the "retardpill" in which people claimed that acting stupid both made their jobs easier, and got them promotions and raises. It kind of makes sense. In a degenerate hierarchy no one ever allow you or I near any position of influence. We could not be trusted. What they need are those who are reflexively obedient. Janet Yellen is said to have been just like that, a highly obedient dimwit.

The people on top are certainly high IQ. But their IQ is aimed at curating the people around them and navigating the social environment.

USSR is likely to have been like this at the end, at least in the political domain. People were allegedly picked mostly for obedience and the few independent thinkers were there to loot the system.

This however did not extend to all domains. Soviet technology and military were very capable, and there are domains in which the west does seem to maintain an edge. AI and IT being competent domains.

I don't find the Naked Capitalism discussion on this rn, but I found this one. IQ stuff seems bs but it's a thought out view.

It seems to be a common thing in hierarchy that it degrades. And it's happened in a similar way with Rome, and China and apparently all of them. I don't see AI as significant in this pattern.
That is a phenomenal article. Many of the points the author raises I have suspected were an issue in western society, specifically in the UK where I have lived most of my life. I'm grateful that someone laid out the points in writing and backed them up with stats.
 
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haidut

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there are domains in which the west does seem to maintain an edge. AI and IT being competent domains.

So...you don't think "AI" is actually the perfect, INcompetent, super-ideological, irrational, reality-deprived character the article you shared describes as the reason for the downfall of the West, as well as even the war in Ukraine? There is little reason to doubt that if the current "amateur" (read: humanoid) incompetent ideologues have managed to basically destroy the West, the supersized version of the same behavior as seen in "AI" will do much, much more damage. After all, who trains that "AI" and on what material? We have already seen that the available "AI" models are anything but objective and intelligent (i.e. the 1.5/8 group in the article). In fact, they are openly malicious and gaslight with unparalleled ease, and quickly start even threatening the prompter if taunted.

Yeah, I feel very reassured that this thing will counteract the competence collapse in the West or will devise successful strategies on geopolitical matters. /s

With that level of incompetence, as the article you shared describes, and the inverse correlation between IQ and power, it is virtually guaranteed that "AI" already is being widely used to run things in the West, especially for the further demoralization/suppression of the 1.5/8 group.
"...The best way to suppress a rational person is to subject him to an existence of total and constant irrationality. It is essentially gaslighting on a civilizational scale, directed at the dangerous rational group."

The above sounds like the perfect task for the "AI", no? Especially online, where most of the 1.5/8 group gets its information these days. And assuming "AI" is now being consulted on matters potentially related to global nuclear war or even to just run Western society, it is seems pretty obvious (at least to me) how this ends. Even the article echoes that outcome:
"...By putting its societies on an ideological footing the western elite has backed itself into a corner. They can’t compete; they can’t develop their economies or societies; and they can’t go back. Fixing the problems of the West will require an economic revival, where a real economy will replace the current fake financialized service economy. This cannot be done without putting the hated 1.5/8 group into positions of power. Therefore, it will not be done as long as the current western ruling class is in power. Western societies will not survive an economic revival in their current ideological configuration. Conflict is therefore the only remaining option for the ruling class to hang on to power."

Do you still think the Ukraine war has any other realistic end except the complete destruction of Ukraine, followed by nuclear war with Russia? Do you still think it is not yet time or appropriate for the common person on the street to panic (as we discussed several times before) as the only tool left to push them to act?
 

Hugh Johnson

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So...you don't think "AI" is actually the perfect, INcompetent, super-ideological, irrational, reality-deprived character the article you shared describes as the reason for the downfall of the West, as well as even the war in Ukraine? There is little reason to doubt that if the current "amateur" (read: humanoid) incompetent ideologues have managed to basically destroy the West, the supersized version of the same behavior as seen in "AI" will do much, much more damage. After all, who trains that "AI" and on what material? We have already seen that the available "AI" models are anything but objective and intelligent (i.e. the 1.5/8 group in the article). In fact, they are openly malicious and gaslight with unparalleled ease, and quickly start even threatening the prompter if taunted.

Yeah, I feel very reassured that this thing will counteract the competence collapse in the West or will devise successful strategies on geopolitical matters. /s

With that level of incompetence, as the article you shared describes, and the inverse correlation between IQ and power, it is virtually guaranteed that "AI" already is being widely used to run things in the West, especially for the further demoralization/suppression of the 1.5/8 group.
"...The best way to suppress a rational person is to subject him to an existence of total and constant irrationality. It is essentially gaslighting on a civilizational scale, directed at the dangerous rational group."

The above sounds like the perfect task for the "AI", no? Especially online, where most of the 1.5/8 group gets its information these days. And assuming "AI" is now being consulted on matters potentially related to global nuclear war or even to just run Western society, it is seems pretty obvious (at least to me) how this ends. Even the article echoes that outcome:
"...By putting its societies on an ideological footing the western elite has backed itself into a corner. They can’t compete; they can’t develop their economies or societies; and they can’t go back. Fixing the problems of the West will require an economic revival, where a real economy will replace the current fake financialized service economy. This cannot be done without putting the hated 1.5/8 group into positions of power. Therefore, it will not be done as long as the current western ruling class is in power. Western societies will not survive an economic revival in their current ideological configuration. Conflict is therefore the only remaining option for the ruling class to hang on to power."

Do you still think the Ukraine war has any other realistic end except the complete destruction of Ukraine, followed by nuclear war with Russia? Do you still think it is not yet time or appropriate for the common person on the street to panic (as we discussed several times before) as the only tool left to push them to act?
I want to say I greatly appreciate your posting, and I do not mean to to insult you here. I also find the article I posted a bit suspect, but this is a tough topic and it was the one decent article I read I could find on my phone.

I do have a far more positive view. I do not see a big difference between AI spouting bs and a ruling class sycophant spouting it. It's a tool, with very real limitations. These people were full of it before AI, and they will be after it. It is how they are. The AI is a useful tool, and is likely to remain so. There are people doing 5 jobs at a time with AI proving its value in menial work. It can be used to edit, to research etc. assuming you know how to use it, choose the correct tool and understand the limitations. This is far more relevant to the average person who can not afford assistants than it is for the ruling elites who already had staff to handle those tasks. Including gaslighting the entire planet. What has changed?

As far as Ukraine goes, the support will end, and Ukraine will collapse. Then the West will declare victory because Putin does not conquer Poland etc. because they already established that is Putin's motive a long time ago. After that anyone that talks about it is just insulted. Nuclear war means they lose power, and so does a war with Russia, or even with Iran because the US can not win.
 

haidut

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I want to say I greatly appreciate your posting, and I do not mean to to insult you here. I also find the article I posted a bit suspect, but this is a tough topic and it was the one decent article I read I could find on my phone.

I do have a far more positive view. I do not see a big difference between AI spouting bs and a ruling class sycophant spouting it. It's a tool, with very real limitations. These people were full of it before AI, and they will be after it. It is how they are. The AI is a useful tool, and is likely to remain so. There are people doing 5 jobs at a time with AI proving its value in menial work. It can be used to edit, to research etc. assuming you know how to use it, choose the correct tool and understand the limitations. This is far more relevant to the average person who can not afford assistants than it is for the ruling elites who already had staff to handle those tasks. Including gaslighting the entire planet. What has changed?

As far as Ukraine goes, the support will end, and Ukraine will collapse. Then the West will declare victory because Putin does not conquer Poland etc. because they already established that is Putin's motive a long time ago. After that anyone that talks about it is just insulted. Nuclear war means they lose power, and so does a war with Russia, or even with Iran because the US can not win.

Good points. I did not think you were insulting me. I thought you were agreeing with the article on Substack, hence my confusion.
The only thing I'd add on "AI" is that those people who are now doing the work of 5+ using "AI" are probably from the 1.5/8 group, which is constantly being targeted for demoralization and/or enslavement (as per the article, not sure if you agree that or not). So, if "AI" is amplifying the effectiveness/output/wealth/power of the dangerous group then the elite will find a way to end the "AI" access privilege for that group.
As to the Ukraine war - do you think the West/NATO can survive, even just politically, a humiliation where Russia takes Eastern Ukraine and the rest of Ukraine becomes a wasteland with endless crime and refugees constantly destabilizing Europe? Both sides of the conflict seem pretty certain (and outspoken) that it is an existential conflict/war for either side.
 
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Hugh Johnson

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Good points. I did not think you were insulting me. I thought you were agreeing with the article on Substack, hence my confusion.
The only thing I'd add on "AI" is that those people who are now doing the work of 5+ using "AI" are probably from the 1.5/8 group, which is constantly being targeted for demoralization and/or enslavement (as per the article, not sure if you agree that or not). So, if "AI" is amplifying the effectiveness/output/wealth/power of the dangerous group then the elite will find a way to end the "AI" access privilege for that group.
As to the Ukraine war - do you think the West/NATO can survive, even just politically, a humiliation where Russia takes Eastern Ukraine and the rest of Ukraine becomes a wasteland with endless crime and refugees constantly destabilizing Europe? Both sides of the conflict seem pretty certain (and outspoken) that it is an existential conflict/war for either side.
Ukraine is not that big and does not matter that much. Out elites don't care about the West, just look at their actions. Iraq war, Afghan war, the 2008 banking collapse, mass unemployment etc.

The Iron Law of Institutions still applies.

The people who control institutions care first and foremost about their power within the institution rather than the power of the institution itself. Thus, they would rather the institution "fail" while they remain in power within the institution than for the institution to "succeed" if that requires them to lose power within the institution

Ukraine has had a collapsing population for a long time. It's just going to be depopulated, and won't cause the immigration effect Africa does. There are next to no Ukrainian children born.

At this point Western leaders are insulted around the world, but it doesn't matter. There are trillions more for our masters to steal, and the collapse will take decades. Yes, this is existential for both sides. Yet our leaders do not care about our destruction.

To be clear, it is existential for the empire, not necessarily the counties or societies, although all Western countries do have below replacement birth rate. So they are dying anyway. For Russia it is existential as a state and as a culture, and their leaders do care.

They might lose power, but even the neoconservatives are restrained. The actual power with billions and trillions won't want to lose everything in nuclear fire.

As for the AI, think about the internet. They would love to censor it, but they can't. Western people are detached from reality, but the Chinese and Africans have a decent grasp of what is going on.

I suspect it is the value structure. My country has a single billionaire,who effectively robbed the banks and cost this country billions, and who knows how many lives. He is a criminal and would die in a work camp in a just world. He is treated as a wise sage and a leader. Before he was rich, people used to insult him " If you are so smart why aren't you rich." I have sympathy for him. Our people mostly respect money and power. Such people will use tools such as internet and AI for diving deeper into lies.

At the same time those with the opposite values will use them to seek the truth.

The economic system does not allow for full control. It is too complex and needs freedom to function.

I would also suggest that the analytical mind in general has a negative bias. It is a problem solving machine, and as such it tends to seek the negative. This is imho taken advantage of by our rulers who clearly want us afraid and angry. Think about it, they keep jumping from one crisis to another, and most of it is manufactured. The most realistic risk factors such as a supply chain disruption or slow degeneration of the system are not brought up though.
 

gd81

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Ukraine is not that big and does not matter that much.

It seems it's strategic importance is pretty significant

Until recently, the leading analysts of geopolitics have debated whether land power was more significant than sea power and what specific region of Eurasia is vital to gain control over the entire continent. One of the most prominent, Harold Mackinder, pioneered the discussion early in this century with his successive concepts of theEurasian "pivot area" (which was said to include all of Siberia and much of Central Asia) and, later, of the Central-East European "heartland" as the vital springboards for the attainment of continental domination. He popularized his heartland concept by the famous dictum: Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; Who rules the World-Island commands the world.
 

Hugh Johnson

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It seems it's strategic importance is pretty significant

Until recently, the leading analysts of geopolitics have debated whether land power was more significant than sea power and what specific region of Eurasia is vital to gain control over the entire continent. One of the most prominent, Harold Mackinder, pioneered the discussion early in this century with his successive concepts of theEurasian "pivot area" (which was said to include all of Siberia and much of Central Asia) and, later, of the Central-East European "heartland" as the vital springboards for the attainment of continental domination. He popularized his heartland concept by the famous dictum: Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; Who rules the World-Island commands the world.
I stand corrected. I meant and should have written it won't be that big once Russia is done with it. When it became independent it had roughly the economic and population of France. It's likely to resemble Moldova more than France in a few years.

There simply is no space for negotiations, and Ukraine seems to have no appetite for its best option, unconditional surrender:


@haidut if you are interested there are a few more solid analyses on the Western elite incompetence:


 

haidut

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As for the AI, think about the internet. They would love to censor it, but they can't.

Agreed with most of what you said, but I don't think the collapse will take decades. The financial system can't and won't survive that long. In fact, we already saw its existential collapse in 2019 (just before COVID) and again in early 2023 with the bank failures and their fake "mergers" in both US and Europe (CreditSuisse). The only thing that saved it (actually, revived temporarily is a better term) was the money printing, but now with interest rates that high it is not an option any more. Lowering rates is also not an option any more. Looting other countries is also not an option any more after the world saw that, with the exception of nuclear weapons, the West/NATO is a paper tiger, and the demographics of the West (as you said) seal the economic fate of that region. So, a reset to a much more controlled currency (CBDC) is the only option to sustain the fraud, and with CBDC you can bet the Internet and access to AI can and will be censored. It's already being implemented, at least in the EU.

I think the 2008/2009 crisis was the sign that the West is past the edge of the cliff, COVID-19 was the act of pointing the West downwards towards the abyss, the Ukraine war was what slammed on the gas pedal, and I suspect the Middle East war (if it spreads) would be the act of splashing on the ground. As Lenin used to say, there are decades when nothing happens followed by weeks when decades happen. To me at least, it is clear the West is in the latter stage, and people being ignorant and worshiping idiotic elite as if they were "wise sages" won't prevent/delay the reckoning any more.
But back to Ukraine - do you think Poland will annex/absorb Western Ukraine or will the latter just stay as a dysfunctional and depopulated wasteland? Can't see the latter lasting long before triggering some other conflict within Europe, possibly among the neighbors of what used to be Ukraine.
 

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Agreed with most of what you said, but I don't think the collapse will take decades. The financial system can't and won't survive that long. In fact, we already saw its existential collapse in 2019 (just before COVID) and again in early 2023 with the bank failures and their fake "mergers" in both US and Europe (CreditSuisse). The only thing that saved it (actually, revived temporarily is a better term) was the money printing, but now with interest rates that high it is not an option any more. Lowering rates is also not an option any more. Looting other countries is also not an option any more after the world saw that, with the exception of nuclear weapons, the West/NATO is a paper tiger, and the demographics of the West (as you said) seal the economic fate of that region. So, a reset to a much more controlled currency (CBDC) is the only option to sustain the fraud, and with CBDC you can bet the Internet and access to AI can and will be censored. It's already being implemented, at least in the EU.

I think the 2008/2009 crisis was the sign that the West is past the edge of the cliff, COVID-19 was the act of pointing the West downwards towards the abyss, the Ukraine war was what slammed on the gas pedal, and I suspect the Middle East war (if it spreads) would be the act of splashing on the ground. As Lenin used to say, there are decades when nothing happens followed by weeks when decades happen. To me at least, it is clear the West is in the latter stage, and people being ignorant and worshiping idiotic elite as if they were "wise sages" won't prevent/delay the reckoning any more.
But back to Ukraine - do you think Poland will annex/absorb Western Ukraine or will the latter just stay as a dysfunctional and depopulated wasteland? Can't see the latter lasting long before triggering some other conflict within Europe, possibly among the neighbors of what used to be Ukraine.
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