NATO Kicks Off Its Biggest Air Force Drills Since End of Cold War („Air Defender“)

[youngsinatra]

NATO Nations Begin Giant Air Force Drills in Germany

More than 250 aircraft from 24 NATO countries and Japan will participate in a two-week military exercise.

www.nytimes.com

WUNSTORF, Germany — More than 250 aircraft and 10,000 personnel will participate in a two-week military exercise beginning on Monday involving NATO nations and Japan, in what host nation Germany bills as the largest deployment of aircraft in the alliance’s history.
Planning for the training began in 2018. But it comes as fighting escalates on NATO’s doorstep in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces, backed by arms from Western allies, are mounting an offensive to reclaim territory captured by Russia since the invasion ordered last year by President Vladimir V. Putin.

Officials involved in the 25-nation NATO exercise said it sends a message about the alliance’s solidarity.

“I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows, in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance,” Amy Gutmann, the U.S. ambassador to Germany, told reporters last week. “That includes Mr. Putin.”

The exercise, known as Air Defender, is led by the German government and will bring together the largest number of aircraft from outside Germany for a training mission since NATO was founded in 1949. The United States flew about 100 National Guard and Navy aircraft to Germany for the exercises.

The 12-day event starts with an air show in Wunstorf, in northern Germany, that will feature cargo and refueling planes — workhorse aircraft that have been crucial to getting weapons and supplies to Ukraine. Pilots will conduct other missions with fighter jets, the show horses of the sky, at five other bases across Germany.

The exercise comes a few weeks after the United States reluctantly agreed to allow Ukrainian troops to train on, and eventually obtain, American-made F-16 fighter jets — not just for the current conflict against Russia but also as part of a longer-term deterrence strategy.
Air Force Gen. Ingo Gerhartz of Germany, who is overseeing Air Defender, said it was not “directed at anyone,” and emphasized that no offensive scenarios would be practiced. “We are a defense alliance, and so this exercise will be of a defensive nature,” General Gerhartz told reporters in Berlin.

But General Gerhartz said that when he proposed the exercise, in 2018, “the trigger for me back then was the capture, the annexation of Crimea,” the Ukrainian peninsula, by Mr. Putin four years earlier. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, General Gerhartz said, allies on NATO’s eastern flank, closest to Russia, “are asking for reinsurance” that the alliance will defend them in case of aggression by Moscow.

One goal of the exercise is to test how aircraft from so many states communicate with each other, said Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a research institute based in London.

Mr. Barrie said cargo and fuel flight crews will be closely watched during the exercises because of the important role they play in conflicts, including in Ukraine. But mostly, he said, the exercises are part of a “signaling” campaign — letting Mr. Putin know just what NATO is capable of launching against Russia, if needed.
Even if the exercises were planned years ago, Mr. Barrie said, “I’d be very surprised, shall we say, if the alliance wasn’t kind of looking at this as part of its overall messaging strategy.”

 

[burtlancast]

They are sending a warning to Putin should he blow the nuclear plant like he did for the dam

 

[LA]

This is too chilling.
I have been concerned about all these events after seeing Hunter B's laptop and also the possibility that his father has dementia. There is this 'old' 2022 opinion by Henry Kissinger. Now the situation appears worse for everyone, everyplace.

[copylink]Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory

[original:]Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory

25may2022
Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory

Former US Secretary of State warns against the defeat of Putin as Western unity on sanctions frays badly

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Davos, Switzerland
23 May 2022 • 7:17pm

Veteran US statesman Henry Kissinger has urged the West to stop trying to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine, warning that it would have disastrous consequences for the long term stability of Europe.

The former US secretary of state and architect of the Cold War rapprochement between the US and China told a gathering in Davos that it would be fatal for the West to get swept up in the mood of the moment and forget the proper place of Russia in the European balance of power.

Dr Kissinger said the war must not be allowed to drag on for much longer, and came close to calling on the West to bully Ukraine into accepting negotiations on terms that fall very far short of its current war aims.

“Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome. Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante. Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself,” he said.

He told the World Economic Forum that Russia had been an essential part of Europe for 400 years and had been the guarantor of the European balance of power structure at critical times. European leaders should not lose sight of the longer term relationship, and nor should they risk pushing Russia into a permanent alliance with China.

“I hope the Ukrainians will match the heroism they have shown with wisdom,” he said, adding with his famous sense of realpolitik that the proper role for the country is to be a neutral buffer state rather than the frontier of Europe.

The comments came amid growing signs that the Western coalition against Vladimir Putin is fraying badly as the food and energy crisis deepens, and that sanctions may have reached their limits.

“We’re seeing the worst of Europe,” said German vice-chancellor Robert Habeck in an angry outburst in Davos, accusing Hungary and other recalcitrant states of paralyzing attempts by the rest of the EU to craft a full-fledged oil embargo.

Mr Habeck, who doubles as economy minister, said Germany is more or less ready to endure the shock of a total cut-off in Russian oil imports but others want to carry on as if nothing had changed. “I expect everyone to work to find a solution, and not to sit back and work on building their partnership with Putin,” he said.

Yuriy Vitrenkio, head of the Ukrainian energy consortium Naftogas, said the refuseniks are demanding exemptions from the embargo on false pretences. “What they really want is a free-ride on discounted Russian oil,” he said.

Eleven Republican senators and 57 congressmen in the US voted against the colossal $40bn aid package for Ukraine, an early sign of fragmenting cohesion in Washington.

“Putin is counting on the West to lose focus and that is our real challenge. People are as concerned, or more concerned, about the rising price of gas and groceries,” said Senator Christopher Coons.

Wheat and oil prices have jumped

“I’m not sure the unity will last. We may not get the next vote,” said Eric Cantor, former House Whip and a key figure in the sanctions policy against Iran.

Nobody is sure whether the US is trying to punish Russia for its aggression or whether the goal is a subtler use of policy that gives the Kremlin a “route out of sanctions” if it changes course. The fundamental divisions over the West’s war aims in Ukraine have so far been masked by an outpouring of solidarity and emotion, but these rifts are coming to the fore.

President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered his usual tour de force in a video address to the forum, saying “this is the year when we learn whether brute force will rule the world”. If it does, he added with his trademark touch, there will be no point in any more World Economic Forums in Davos.

Yet he also said Russia should be shut out of the civilised world entirely, and that all trade should stop until Russian forces are driven from Ukraine. “Sanctions should be maximum, so that Russia and every other potential aggressor that wants to wage a brutal war against its neighbour would clearly know the immediate consequences of their actions," he said.

It is doubtful whether the West can maintain a united front in pursuit of such far-reaching war aims with absolutist aims. Mr Cantor said it would require secondary sanctions against other countries, putting the West in a head on clash with China, India, and almost 60 states that refused to back a UN resolution denouncing Russia’s invasion.

India’s energy minister Shri Hardeep Puri brushed aside suggestions that his country should stop buying Russian oil. “The Europeans buy more Russian energy in an afternoon than we do in a quarter,” he said in Davos.

Mr Cantor said the US was in danger of overplaying its hand. “We have got to have multilateral support. We are already being accused of weaponising the world’s reserve currency. Even allies and friends are starting to ask, if you are using it in this way, we too could one day be subject to these sanctions,” he said.

The West has cut Russia off from a foreign currency war chest of more than $600bn

The US Congress is split on the ultimate war aim. Senator Joe Manchin said the US should keep going until there was a clear “win” that restored all of Ukraine’s territory and led to the toppling of Vladimir Putin but other members of the Congressional delegation in Davos want a negotiated outcome.

Saudi Arabia and the Opec states have made it clear that they will not draw on their spare capacity to cover the lost Russian supply of oil, estimated at around one million barrels a day at the end of April. This makes it extremely hard to plug the gap if Europe cuts off purchases of Russian barrels.

Francisco Blanch from Bank of America said the oil market is now extremely tight. “The energy buffer is nearing a vanishing point. Crude oil inventories are down to a dangerously low point across Europe, North America, and OECD Asia. Inventories have also fallen to precarious levels for middle distillates and even gasoline as the market heads into the peak of the US driving season,” he said.

Unless there is a global recession and violent demand destruction, crude prices could soon spiral higher. “We’re not living in a dream world: we have to replace the lost oil with other oil,” said Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency.

Mr Birol said that the OECD bloc of rich states are releasing 1.5m barrels a day of oil to stabilise the market, and have so far depleted 9pc of their stocks. This is before the European embargo against Russia even begins. “This winter in Europe will be tough,” he said.