Ukraine Crisis

Perry Staltic

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could be a very different animal against nato special forces.

They might be able to do some damage for a while until the security situation is well established, but overall they won't be able to get close enough. They're brave and capable, but they're not suicidal fools. And at a distance artillery, missiles, drones, and air power don't discriminate; they'll be as vulnerable as any are. There was a report yesterday that the hdqtrs or some kind of gathering point of the Carpathian Sith was destroyed in Zaporozhye (I think). That is a unit NATO contractors are part of
 

Perry Staltic

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But Belogorod and Crimea have been attacked before. Russian territory. Belogorod isn’t even annexed territory like Crimea.

If at all, then including the Sep-Republics into RF is only more helpful Propaganda-wise then said attacks. But the legal pretext for escalated warfare was stronger with their aforementioned territories

The legal pretext was there, but maybe it wasn't the right time. Maybe it's all waiting on the convergence. We'll see. I've stopped holding my breath and have adopted a "whatever will be will be" attitude.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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Stakes getting higher. Macron hard to gauge. Sometimes he seemed the last European leader to really try to achieve something by negotiating.
But wanting to tell Putin to leave now or rapidement sounds like „or else …“.

It sounds like things are escalating from both sides. Alas, I wanted to stop speculating
 

Hugh Johnson

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Russia buying and applying Iranian drones at this late stage sadly is another indication that Moscow‘s plan really was the decapitating coup within weeks - and that it apparently failed.
I can see no other feasible explanation to go into this sort of war without a sizeable contingent of assault drones, especially where Russia has Air dominance. Deliberately dismissing or ignoring such a vital asset would be arrogance or incompetence.


So Russia is fighting a Plan B at best, and worse: likely a makeshift Plan B.

That’s never a good disposition. Holding onto the territory and capturing all of Donbas while letting as much enemy forces come within range of artillery and defense fortification is all right, but how long will that go on?

Yes, Russia might have the option of pressuring both Ukraine and Europe if they destroy the civil infrastructure of the country. But is that wise? Everything will be a pretext for intense „covered“ warfare by NATO and US elites. Including the intensification of inciting conflicts in Russia’s influence sphere - maybe even terrorists on Russia’s territory like during the Chechen wars.

The harder Russia’s attack on civil infrastructure the more „justified“ a western public will find flagrant and terror measures against Russia. And that’s all that counts for the western warmongers behind this. Justifying their actions before a crucial mass of the domestic „audience“.

Russia’s military and other concerned branches aren’t omnipotent. They will make blunders and they will be caught off guard.

I expect more and more Engagement of western intel and spec ops and mercenaries, so I kind of reinstate my predictions from early in the conflict, where I wagered Russia might try to occupy Ukraine onto Dnjepr but will face intense western backed Guerilla warfare that it probably would have trouble to sustain.

What I don’t expect anymore is „Ukraine“ to surrender or aspire peace deals. Not as long as Zelensky rules, who is now proven a puppet of warmongers that wish for exactly this situation we find ourselves in. Endless medium scale conflict with Russia, to be waged with everything at anytime at their wish. No legislation needed, no referendums. Just executives in the west commanding secrete operations and delivering weapons and financing it.

This being such a wonderful constellation makes you wonder to what extent Moscow was provoked and duped into believing it could decapitate Kiev.
Have the rumors of strife and Indictments of FSB and other security personell been confirmed? Would be evidence.
Also those falling Oligarchs. Who knows what allegiances surfaced during the recent month.

The only „way out“ for Russia I can see is really an all out war with much more Territory conquered - as much that Ukrainian border with Europe is under permanent threat of superior Russian firepower. And eliminating Ukrainian leadership. I doubt it is capable of it. Or only if it gets supported and reinforced by allies. We might see the beginning of that though
Drones are a new military tech. No one expected them to be that useful, and Iran has superior drone tech. It is simply Russia adding a new component to their army having found it useful. It has no tactical relevance, just a lesson learned during the war.

The western media has already established Russia as literally double Hitler. And they never cared when NATO destroyed Iraqi infrastructure, or commited numerous war crimes there. A few power stations won't make difference in perception.

Guerilla war requires the support of the population. Since Russia is doing a vote, granting them citizenship and providing higher living standards and safety, few will support guerillas. These are not afgan tribesmen, these are educated and atomized people anyway.

If NATO could support Chechen separatists, they would. In fact they have been doing that for years. Attempts to destroy Russia are not new.
 

rockarolla

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"Dead Hand" on? Ancient soviet tech, pre apoc staff. :)

1663704381649.png
 
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Hugh Johnson

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Stakes getting higher. Macron hard to gauge. Sometimes he seemed the last European leader to really try to achieve something by negotiating.
But wanting to tell Putin to leave now or rapidement sounds like „or else …“.

It sounds like things are escalating from both sides. Alas, I wanted to stop speculating
Talking to Western European leaders is a waste of time. They play it like Ukraine is suddenly winning and are making demands from a position of postured strength. It's like talking to a person who likes to do Twitter owns in a conversation. Why bother? You are not going punch them in the mouth anyway, which would be the only thing that would get them to think about things realistically. So ignore them and shut them out until they learn to engage productively.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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Russia announced partly Mobilization. Media claim this allows bringing up to 300.000 reserve personell into active service.

Fun fact: in the televised Speech where Putin announced that he said Russia will oppose those „who want to rule the world“
 

Hugh Johnson

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rockarolla

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Putin:

“Our country also has various means of destruction, and in terms of individual components, more modern than those of the NATO countries.
With a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, to protect Russia and our people, we use all the means at our disposal, this is not a bluff.
The citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be ensured with all the means at our disposal.
Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind rose can turn in their direction as well.”
 
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LeeLemonoil

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I hate listening to soiboi narrating voices that ooze with know-it-all certainty, but are just regurgitating a learned narrative. He's a know-nothing academic imo


View: https://twitter.com/gametheory101/status/1565542191874904064
Fa2TZSRUEAAPZ8L


I didn’t research the guy but yes: this one is an unhealthy opportunist if one ever saw one. You’re right, his assessments and „analysis“ could only be right under one condition: the western mainstream narrative is Right. Because guys like him never stray off line, especially at controversial subjects.

But he surely has a loyal woke-authoritarian following at YouTube since he is a „professor“.
No wonder it popped up in my YT-feed, despite I‘m hardly looking for Ukraine videos except for Markus Reisner.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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“Our country also has various means of destruction, and in terms of individual components, more modern than those of the NATO countries.
With a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, to protect Russia and our people, we use all the means at our disposal, this is not a bluff.
The citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be ensured with all the means at our disposal.
Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind rose can turn in their direction as well.”
And here we are again, thinly veiled threats of mass extinction between the superpowers.

Well done authoritarians of the World! Well done indeed.

Special thanks to all the western woke authoritarians that so wish to „protect“ the Planet, Environment, climate, humanity, „values“.

You sucking up to each and every stupid propaganda, Manipulation And psy-op the Empire of lies has presented you to swallow brought us a ******* long way.
 

Perry Staltic

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No wonder it popped up in my YT-feed, despite I‘m hardly looking for Ukraine videos except for Markus Reisner.

Yeah a cookie was set when you watched a Reisner video that informed the algorithm to funnel approved Ukraine narratives your way. Delete your youtube cookies and that annoyance should go away
 
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