Ukraine Crisis

[Perry Staltic]

Rumors of another planned UAF suicide mission at Kinburn Spit. The goal is apparently to cut the supply road between Kherson and Crimea. First they have to cross 4-5 miles of open water, then traverse maybe 50 miles of narrow and wide open terrain. Do they think they have an invisibility shield or something? No realistic possibility of resupply. 2 battalions, are you kidding me? Just desperation and madness if true


View: https://t.me/CyberspecNews/8761

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Rumors of another planned UAF suicide mission at Kinburn Spit. The goal is apparently to cut the supply road between Kherson and Crimea. First they have to cross 4-5 miles of open water, then traverse maybe 50 miles of narrow and wide open terrain. Do they think they have an invisibility shield or something? No realistic possibility of resupply. 2 battalions, are you kidding me? Just desperation and madness if true


View: https://t.me/CyberspecNews/8761

As long as this war is battalion level size at ground operations not much will change territory wise

 

[Perry Staltic]

An interesting drone's eye view of a thermite barrage. Also another video with crappy music


View: https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1572163227597049856

 

[Perry Staltic]

Various things are converging that may affect the dynamic of the war (add to list if you know more)

1) rainy season is approaching which will raise river and mud levels, hindering UAF offensives
2) trees will lose their leaves soon which will greatly diminish UAF's ability to hide in forests
3) Russia is slowly disabling Ukraine's electrical infrastructure, which will negatively impact it's rail transport, it's ability to export electricity to Europe and its ability to stay warm in colder weather
4) colder weather will make UAF troops trying to stay warm with fires easier to spot
5) RAF's expanded use of Iranian drones, which already has UAF very concerned
6) Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts will hold referendums very soon to become part of Russia, which is likely to move Russian public sentiment to a full war footing
7) Russia is advancing legislation to add war conditions to its penal code

View: https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1572197651722174464


View: https://t.me/CyberspecNews/8783

 

[rockarolla]

 

[Peachy]

Various things are converging that may affect the dynamic of the war (add to list if you know more)

1) rainy season is approaching which will raise river and mud levels, hindering UAF offensives
2) trees will lose their leaves soon which will greatly diminish UAF's ability to hide in forests
3) Russia is slowly disabling Ukraine's electrical infrastructure, which will negatively impact it's rail transport, it's ability to export electricity to Europe and its ability to stay warm in colder weather
4) colder weather will make UAF troops trying to stay warm with fires easier to spot
5) RAF's expanded use of Iranian drones, which already has UAF very concerned
6) Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts will hold referendums very soon to become part of Russia, which is likely to move Russian public sentiment to a full war footing
7) Russia is advancing legislation to add war conditions to its penal code (see below)


View: https://t.me/CyberspecNews/8783

Thank you for this!

Will allowing foreign volunteers change much?


View: https://t.me/geromanat/1272


I’ve also heard Ukraine is very low on winter gear for soldiers and from the scrambling of crowdfunders and nato, seems true. I heard they have clothes for 100K soldiers.

Although, according to CIT “analyst” (another ISW) it’s Russia that’s at a disadvantage this winter

Ukraine Army Will Have Upper Hand Against Russia Throughout Winter—Analyst

Kyrylo Mykhailov from the Conflict Intelligence Team warned that Moscow's forces will have a shortage of winter gear.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Peachy]

I’ve stumbled on an interesting LPR page on Instagram. Here’s a selection of posts.

This post says the LPR referendum will take place between September 23-27


View: https://www.instagram.com/p/Ciui-anL0hy/?igshid=NmNmNjAwNzg=


LPR Minister of Education and Science tests out the porridge at Luhansk School No. 20


View: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CirvbDSoV4g/?igshid=NmNmNjAwNzg=


Bras for sale! PJs from Turkey! Located in LPR, Alchevsk, central market near the butcher pavilion


View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CisjNQKIPZd/?igshid=NmNmNjAwNzg=


Need a used stroller?


View: https://www.instagram.com/p/Cima8drITpA/?igshid=NmNmNjAwNzg=

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Russia buying and applying Iranian drones at this late stage sadly is another indication that Moscow‘s plan really was the decapitating coup within weeks - and that it apparently failed.
I can see no other feasible explanation to go into this sort of war without a sizeable contingent of assault drones, especially where Russia has Air dominance. Deliberately dismissing or ignoring such a vital asset would be arrogance or incompetence.


So Russia is fighting a Plan B at best, and worse: likely a makeshift Plan B.

That’s never a good disposition. Holding onto the territory and capturing all of Donbas while letting as much enemy forces come within range of artillery and defense fortification is all right, but how long will that go on?

Yes, Russia might have the option of pressuring both Ukraine and Europe if they destroy the civil infrastructure of the country. But is that wise? Everything will be a pretext for intense „covered“ warfare by NATO and US elites. Including the intensification of inciting conflicts in Russia’s influence sphere - maybe even terrorists on Russia’s territory like during the Chechen wars.

The harder Russia’s attack on civil infrastructure the more „justified“ a western public will find flagrant and terror measures against Russia. And that’s all that counts for the western warmongers behind this. Justifying their actions before a crucial mass of the domestic „audience“.

Russia’s military and other concerned branches aren’t omnipotent. They will make blunders and they will be caught off guard.

I expect more and more Engagement of western intel and spec ops and mercenaries, so I kind of reinstate my predictions from early in the conflict, where I wagered Russia might try to occupy Ukraine onto Dnjepr but will face intense western backed Guerilla warfare that it probably would have trouble to sustain.

What I don’t expect anymore is „Ukraine“ to surrender or aspire peace deals. Not as long as Zelensky rules, who is now proven a puppet of warmongers that wish for exactly this situation we find ourselves in. Endless medium scale conflict with Russia, to be waged with everything at anytime at their wish. No legislation needed, no referendums. Just executives in the west commanding secrete operations and delivering weapons and financing it.

This being such a wonderful constellation makes you wonder to what extent Moscow was provoked and duped into believing it could decapitate Kiev.
Have the rumors of strife and Indictments of FSB and other security personell been confirmed? Would be evidence.
Also those falling Oligarchs. Who knows what allegiances surfaced during the recent month.

The only „way out“ for Russia I can see is really an all out war with much more Territory conquered - as much that Ukrainian border with Europe is under permanent threat of superior Russian firepower. And eliminating Ukrainian leadership. I doubt it is capable of it. Or only if it gets supported and reinforced by allies. We might see the beginning of that though

 

[rockarolla]

6) Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts will hold referendums very soon to become part of Russia, which is likely to move Russian public sentiment to a full war footing

Very good news for LPR and DPR - maybe Putin will finally donate part of his 250 billion fortune for their normal equipment.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Need a used stroller?


View: https://www.instagram.com/p/Cima8drITpA/?igshid=NmNmNjAwNzg=

That baby stroller would scare me. Kind of top heavy. Needs an air bag in case it falls over

 

[Perry Staltic]

Russia buying and applying Iranian drones at this late stage sadly is another indication that Moscow‘s plan really was the decapitating coup within weeks - and that it apparently failed.
I can see no other feasible explanation to go into this sort of war without a sizeable contingent of assault drones, especially where Russia has Air dominance. Deliberately dismissing or ignoring such a vital asset would be arrogance or incompetence.

Bureaucratic inertia and limited military budget, and/or incompetence, are the only things that make sense to me.

 

[Perry Staltic]

So Russia is fighting a Plan B at best, and worse: likely a makeshift Plan B.

It might actually be their plan A, which entails waiting for this convergence which is time dependent (ie, fall/winter). That would explain the slow, careful pace we've seen so far. Other factors I didn't mention are the economic and demilitarization wars against the west. The longer the delay, the greater their demilitarizations and damage to their economies which will maximize in winter

 

[Perry Staltic]

Will allowing foreign volunteers change much?

No. Some additional manpower, that is all

 

[Perry Staltic]

I expect more and more Engagement of western intel and spec ops and mercenaries, so I kind of reinstate my predictions from early in the conflict, where I wagered Russia might try to occupy Ukraine onto Dnjepr but will face intense western backed Guerilla warfare that it probably would have trouble to sustain.

They seem to have done well with that in Syria and Chechnya

 

[Perry Staltic]

I was actually hoping that Aiden would be spared. He was married to a Ukrainian woman and had Ukrainian citizenship


View: https://twitter.com/iEarlGreyTV/status/1572229501144240134

 

[rockarolla]

Bring Grandma back from the deep freeze! Karl III is really bad behind the control levers!

 

[LeeLemonoil]

The longer the delay, the greater their demilitarizations and damage to their economies which will maximize in winter

I doubt that. During the recent QE2 coverage I heard how poor the citizens of the freakin UK are. They now have less the the average Slovenian!

And they still indulge in a huge military, a Royal Family and Are Russophobic as ever.

Germany too. We see some serious wealth reduction here, especially with those who do not have much to begin with. A few percent change in thr next elections is all. Media will defame and protest and the people are lazy, sick, old, helpless. Those who Proteste are few.

Then you have gazillions of woke or brainwashed idiots that actively revel in „sacrificing“ to win against evil Russia.

No, nothing to hope for here. And the economical consequences in the short term are exaggerated in the pro-Russian bubble, that too is true.

They seem to have done well with that in Syria and Chechnya

could be a very different animal against nato special forces.

Anyway, it’s good that there Are Arguments against pessimistic scenarios. I will refrain from idle predictions in this thread now for a while, maybe even until next year. We will see how all plays out. It will be a very eventful winter.

 

[PxD]

Thank you for this!

Will allowing foreign volunteers change much?


View: https://t.me/geromanat/1272


I’ve also heard Ukraine is very low on winter gear for soldiers and from the scrambling of crowdfunders and nato, seems true. I heard they have clothes for 100K soldiers.

Although, according to CIT “analyst” (another ISW) it’s Russia that’s at a disadvantage this winter

Ukraine Army Will Have Upper Hand Against Russia Throughout Winter—Analyst

Kyrylo Mykhailov from the Conflict Intelligence Team warned that Moscow's forces will have a shortage of winter gear.

www.newsweek.com

"Kyrylo Mihailov" = Ukrainian guy who wrote this analysis.

 

[PxD]

Various things are converging that may affect the dynamic of the war (add to list if you know more)


6) Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts will hold referendums very soon to become part of Russia, which is likely to move Russian public sentiment to a full war footing

If the referendums are approved, then Russia will claim to have an active war on its own soil in those oblasts and will have the justification, in its own mind, to kick the military effort up a few notches from SMO, which is very limited in scope on the ground at the moment. This status-tagging may seem irrelevant to us but it does matter to the Russian leadership. Going by how they managed their intervention in Syria, they start small, go by the book of international law (even if no one outside of Russia cares), and escalate in steps with targeted use of resources when escalation is necessary, but preferring to have locals do the gruntwork.

Seems to be a similar model followed in Ukraine so far, where the actual military force deployed is pretty small and a lot of the boots on the ground are local militiamen and Chechen volunteers. Before they invaded on Feb 28th, they first ratified DPR and LNR status as independent republics on the 24th.

So these referendums next week are the prelude to mobilization of a larger Russian force in time for the winter, when the ground hardens up.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

If the referendums are approved, then Russia will claim to have an active war on its own soil in those oblasts and will have the justification, in its own mind, to kick the military effort up a few notches from SMO, which is very limited in scope on the ground at the moment. This status-tagging may seem irrelevant to us but it does matter to the Russian leadership. Going by how they managed their intervention in Syria, they start small, go by the book of international law (even if no one outside of Russia cares), and escalate in steps with targeted use of resources when escalation is necessary, but preferring to have locals do the gruntwork.

Seems to be a similar model followed in Ukraine so far, where the actual military force deployed is pretty small and a lot of the boots on the ground are local militiamen and Chechen volunteers. Before they invaded on Feb 28th, they first ratified DPR and LNR status as independent republics on the 24th.

So these referendums next week are the prelude to mobilization of a larger Russian force in time for the winter, when the ground hardens up.

But Belogorod and Crimea have been attacked before. Russian territory. Belogorod isn’t even annexed territory like Crimea.

If at all, then including the Sep-Republics into RF is only more helpful Propaganda-wise then said attacks. But the legal pretext for escalated warfare was stronger with their aforementioned territories