Ukraine Crisis

[LeeLemonoil]

Zelensky admitted to heavy losses in Donbas. Daily losses 50-100 soldiers. Saying it in context of not granting a petition that seeked admission for Ukrainian men to leave Ukraine (!)

Also, ISW Daily updated adopt another tone, confirming a lot of the Russian advances we read about elsewhere these last few days.

Russia hasn’t given up on Kharkiv is my impression. They maintain positions around and reinforce them. My take is they wager on taking Donbas and in the process isolating Kharkiv for either taking or later or making it subject to negotiations. It’s highly unlikely that integrating Kharkiv into Russia or making it autonomous is not a Russian goal.

Southfront reports rumors that two polish battalions have left Kiev (sic) for Donbas.

Also, regarding ISW: there sources now are increasingly „Russian milbloggers“ or mostly Facebook posts from Ukrainian general staff. The former they ignored for most parts or denied their claims, the latter is not a reliable source

 

[Hugh Johnson]

Zelensky admitted to heavy losses in Donbas. Daily losses 50-100 soldiers. Saying it in context of not granting a petition that seeked admission for Ukrainian men to leave Ukraine (!)

Also, ISW Daily updated adopt another tone, confirming a lot of the Russian advances we read about elsewhere these last few days.

Russia hasn’t given up on Kharkiv is my impression. They maintain positions around and reinforce them. My take is they wager on taking Donbas and in the process isolating Kharkiv for either taking or later or making it subject to negotiations. It’s highly unlikely that integrating Kharkiv into Russia or making it autonomous is not a Russian goal.

Southfront reports rumors that two polish battalions have left Kiev (sic) for Donbas.

Also, regarding ISW: there sources now are increasingly „Russian milbloggers“ or mostly Facebook posts from Ukrainian general staff. The former they ignored for most parts or denied their claims, the latter is not a reliable source

Kharkov is mostly Ukrainian these days. So taking it is probably not worth it. Other areas are likely to join voluntarily, Odessa is so valuable that it might be taken even if the population does want to join Russia. But Kharkov is not, and dealing with a hostile population is very expensive.

Surrounding it so you have a better negotiation position does make sense.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Zelensky admitted to heavy losses in Donbas. Daily losses 50-100 soldiers. Saying it in context of not granting a petition that seeked admission for Ukrainian men to leave Ukraine (!)

It's likely much higher than that. I've read from 300 to 1000 per day. In this incident 4 shells killed at least 17 troops. Thousands of shells are fired every day 24/7.


View: https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1528305681190756353

 

[Perry Staltic]

These videos are becoming increasingly more common. No resupply, no leadership, no rotation, no hope. I think pizda means effed up


View: https://twitter.com/ResMvnita/status/1528564623842189312


View: https://twitter.com/ResMvnita/status/1528565177750274049


View: https://twitter.com/ResMvnita/status/1528565713899859968


View: https://twitter.com/ResMvnita/status/1528566715776438274

 

[Perry Staltic]

At this point you can use ISW maps to show how bad the situation is, though they won't state the obvious. Pockets forming all over the place. Front is collapsing


View: https://twitter.com/Tom_Fowdy/status/1528504586809450496

 

[rockarolla]

Representatives of the Ukrainian territorial defense continue to complain to Zelenskyy in video clips that they have nothing more than machine guns, and ask to immediately send them the military prosecutor's office.

This people does not realize their role in this war.

Their main task is not to fight, but simply be a bait for Russian artillery. Behind them in the rear are counter-battery radars - they detect Russian positions and give target designation for UA artillery.

The only chance for such groups to survive is when, instead of artillery, the territorial defense meets with a group of Special Forces, because then someone will be taken as a POW, but in the vast majority of cases they are simply torn apart by artillery. Not a single fox hole they are trying to dig for themselves protects against 152mm caliber, and Russia massively uses as much as 203mm (2S7 Pion).


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMXVOG4hGjg

 

[Hugh Johnson]

Representatives of the Ukrainian territorial defense continue to complain to Zelenskyy in video clips that they have nothing more than machine guns, and ask to immediately send them the military prosecutor's office.

This people does not realize their role in this war.

Their main task is not to fight, but simply be a bait for Russian artillery. Behind them in the rear are counter-battery radars - they detect Russian positions and give target designation for UA artillery.

The only chance for such groups to survive is when, instead of artillery, the territorial defense meets with a group of Special Forces, because then someone will be taken as a POW, but in the vast majority of cases they are simply torn apart by artillery. Not a single fox hole they are trying to dig for themselves protects against 152mm caliber, and Russia massively uses as much as 203mm (2S7 Pion).


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMXVOG4hGjg

Everyone knows infantry dies so that artillery knows where to shoot. But Ukraine does not have much artillery left, and can not shell Russian positions. So it is just Ukrainians dying, with the occasional rocked hitting Russians.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Million man army just can't catch a break. They're fighting with Russia and their own population. When are they going to wake up and smell the coffee, and finish their mission and evacuate?


View: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1528703637437964290

 

[Perry Staltic]

Front line north of Popasnaya. "most of the career officers died"


View: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1528702218081378309

 

[Peachy]

Front line north of Popasnaya. "most of the career officers died"

It's likely much higher than that. I've read from 300 to 1000 per day. In this incident 4 shells killed at least 17 troops. Thousands of shells are fired every day 24/7.

Meanwhile…


View: https://twitter.com/ap/status/1528716750405214209?s=21

 

[Perry Staltic]

This will make it easier for Poland to takeover western Ukraine


View: https://twitter.com/Levi_godman/status/1528688833470013441

 

[Dave_Fit]

It’s highly unlikely that integrating Kharkiv into Russia or making it autonomous is not a Russian goal.

Is this another way to say the sentence above " It's highly likely that integrating Kharkiv into Russia or making it autonomous is a Russian goal." Just trying to make sure I understood that thought correctly. Enjoying your analysis.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Is this another way to say the sentence above " It's highly likely that integrating Kharkiv into Russia or making it autonomous is a Russian goal." Just trying to make sure I understood that thought correctly. Enjoying your analysis.

I would say not only a goal, but an imperative simply because it's too close to the Russian border to leave in enemy hands.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Imagine being a Ukrainian citizen of Russian ethnicity living in a Ukrainian city that speaks only Russian, that is invaded by Russian-hating nazi fascists from other parts of Ukraine with historical nazi roots, who demonize everything Russian and demand that you speak only Ukrainian. This is the cancer that Russia is excising


View: https://twitter.com/politblogme/status/1528740577809924096

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Is this another way to say the sentence above " It's highly likely that integrating Kharkiv into Russia or making it autonomous is a Russian goal." Just trying to make sure I understood that thought correctly. Enjoying your analysis.

Thank you. It’s all just guesswork mind, based on a limited scope of sources from all sides.

Yes, that’s what I meant to say. For the reasons Perry gave:

I would say not only a goal, but an imperative simply because it's too close to the Russian border to leave in enemy hands.

@Hugh Johnson also has a valid point that both taking and securing a major city is extremely Ressource consuming. That’s why Russia likely won’t do it and can’t do it at the Moment. But given Kharkivs location it can be isolated from Ukrainian supply.

Kharkiv was a very pro-Russian city before the war, I‘m sure Russia will try everything it can to exert influence there, in whichever way.


I got the impression that the battle for Donbas has been decided for Russia now, just a matter of time.

Situation around Cherson? Unknown to me. Lots of possible scenarios. Could be Ukraine will focus all it has, including wespons arriving from the west, to drive Russians off there.
Could be Russia is very prepared for that at that time.
A lot will depend on how a loss in Donbas affects Ukrainian operationability and morale.

Hugh had another good point: this state of conflict allows Russia to bombard Ukraine with aviation and missiles as long as and where it pleases (unless Ukrainian AA gets reinforced substantially
).
If it can’t secure every tactical goal on the ground, it can make Ukraine a ruined state by destroying all crucial infrastructure. In the process this will cause a huge burden on Europe, destabilizing it.

Odessa and Dmjepro Are interesting. Maybe Russia one day will opt to destroy odessas port and infrastructure completely, to cut of Ukraine’s sea acces - if they can’t conquer it. Same for dnjepros economical and agricultural hub-facilities.

I still think Russia will dig in once they secured the Donbas fortifications.

 

[Perry Staltic]

I still think Russia will dig in once they secured the Donbas fortifications.

LDNR possibly, but no need for Russia or Chechens or Wagner to do so.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Reports that over 500 surrendered in Lyman. The Azovstal effect is propagating through the ranks. Many lives will be saved. Good news


View: https://twitter.com/SNMilitary/status/1528803836701335552


View: https://twitter.com/baronichitas/status/1528802528573304832


View: https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1528788138570952704

 

[Perry Staltic]

It is reported that soldiers arrested their officers in Lyman (not confirmed). In most cases that would probably be required for a mass surrender to happen


View: https://twitter.com/Levi_godman/status/1528792170915844098

 

[rockarolla]

Instagram and YouTube have recognized the publications / hashtags "Azov" as unacceptable and are deleting everything related to it.
And the wives of the Azov residents are asked not to publish photos / videos where their "heroes" mock / kill wounded soldiers.

 

[Drareg]

View attachment 37078

Instagram and YouTube have recognized the publications / hashtags "Azov" as unacceptable and are deleting everything related to it.
And the wives of the Azov residents are asked not to publish photos / videos where their "heroes" mock / kill wounded soldiers.

"recognized" more like made their profits from it and now need to reframe it to make it seem like they were fooled, then they will make profit from criticising it.