Ukraine Crisis

[Kvothe]

Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok gives Russian people an insight into reality of the war, on live televison. The Russian hosts are visibly shocked by someone daring to speak the truth. Russia is facing an army of at least a million men, many of them will soon be sufficiently trained and armed to send their meager force back to the Russian borders and beyond, if they so wish.


View: https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1526329765065539592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526329765065539592%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tagesspiegel.de%2Fpolitik%2Fvor-laufender-kamera-russischer-militaerexperte-aeussert-sich-pessimistisch-zur-kriegslage%2F28349944.html

 

[Peachy]

Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok gives Russian people an insight into reality of the war, on live televison. The Russian hosts are visibly shocked by someone daring to speak the truth. Russia is facing an army of at least a million men, many of them will soon be sufficiently trained and armed to send their meager force back to the Russian borders and beyond, if they so wish.


View: https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1526329765065539592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526329765065539592%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tagesspiegel.de%2Fpolitik%2Fvor-laufender-kamera-russischer-militaerexperte-aeussert-sich-pessimistisch-zur-kriegslage%2F28349944.html

Healthy debate! Personally I have a hard time believing morale is so strong, now and going forward.

Scott Ritter had similar cautionary statements in the first bit of this discussion.


View: https://youtu.be/m4SlSILtlpc

 

[rockarolla]

Pranksters Vovan and Lexus caught a big fish - the 43rd US President George W. Bush. They announced revelations about Ukraine, Georgia, and Russia, of course.

Full version will be released on May 19.


View: https://t.me/breakingmash/34906

 

[Kvothe]

Healthy debate! Personally I have a hard time believing morale is so strong, now and going forward.

Morale is very strong on the Ukrainian side, as opposed to the Russians. As Khodarenok says the story about a demoralized Ukrainian army, the majority of citizens not wanting to be drafted is a desperate fairytale made up by Russian propgandists and parroted by useful idiots.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok gives Russian people an insight into reality of the war, on live televison. The Russian hosts are visibly shocked by someone daring to speak the truth. Russia is facing an army of at least a million men, many of them will soon be sufficiently trained and armed to send their meager force back to the Russian borders and beyond, if they so wish.


View: https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1526329765065539592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1526329765065539592%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tagesspiegel.de%2Fpolitik%2Fvor-laufender-kamera-russischer-militaerexperte-aeussert-sich-pessimistisch-zur-kriegslage%2F28349944.html

The colonel is wrong on at least a couple of points:

1) Ukraine can't draft and train a million man army that will be motivated to fight when Russia can at any moment send a cruise missile to any training facility in Ukraine killing hundreds in one instant, which is what they have done and are continuing to do. The training facility near Lviv just received something like 10 cruise missiles in the past day or two.

2) Russia is only isolated from the western world. It has good relations with the majority of the world (Asia, Africa, South America, Mid-East).

The woman puts him in his place and you can see on his face that he is just a western puppet

 

[Perry Staltic]

lol it's so easy to meme these guys


View: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1526554700828614656

 

[Kvothe]

The colonel is wrong on at least a couple of points:

1) Ukraine can't draft and train a million man army that will be motivated to fight when Russia can at any moment send a cruise missile to any training facility in Ukraine killing hundreds in one instant, which is what they have done and are continuing to do. The training facility near Lviv just received something like 10 cruise missiles in the past day or two.

2) Russia is only isolated from the western world. It has good relations with the majority of the world (Asia, Africa, South America, Mid-East).

The woman puts him in his place and you can see on his face that he is just a western puppet

Sure, everyone criticising the Russian army must be a Western puppet. You see, that's exactely the reason all autocracies fail sooner or later. Because no one is allowed to voice healthy cricticism. Corruption and incompetence fester. Everything must be perfect and peachy all the time, or you go to gulag. If Putin had listened to more people like him, maybe this war could have been won already instead of certain defeat.

 

[Peachy]

The colonel is wrong on at least a couple of points:

1) Ukraine can't draft and train a million man army that will be motivated to fight

But the Ukrainian army themselves said it.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Sure, everyone criticising the Russian army must be a Western puppet. You see, that's exactely the reason all autocracies fail sooner or later. Because no one is allowed to voice healthy cricticism. Corruption and incompetence fester. Everything must be perfect and peachy all the time, or you go to gulag. If Putin had listened to more people like him, maybe this war could have been won already instead of certain defeat.

The colonel was expressing criticism openly on TV, so non sequitur.

 

[Perry Staltic]

But the Ukrainian army themselves said it.

Was it the Ghost Recruiter of Kyiv?

 

[Kvothe]

The colonel was expressing criticism openly on TV, so non sequitur.

Yeah, he will not (be allowed to) do that again, believe me.

 

[docall18]

Yeah, he will not (be allowed to) do that again, believe me.

We are lucky to have such a knowledge and unbiased source of information such as yourself. Can you estimate a date for the Ukrainian march on Moscow?

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Josep Borrell, high envoy of the EU for foreign and defense Affairs is cited as saying: if true that Russia lost 15% of its deployed troops already, that’s a „World record“ (sic) for an invading army.

Josep Borrell btw is a known and open Russophob. Anybody believes he got into his position in 2019 by chance?

 

[rockarolla]

If Putin had listened to more people like him, maybe this war could have been won already instead of certain defeat.

Currently winning a war against the so called Ukraine(failed state even before open conflict) just means further escalation.

I think for Russians the main plan is to not win but rather blow away another passionate overheating of Europe against Russia and this may take 2 to 10 years.
Sucks for UA to be the playground for this but still relatively better than having full scale WW3 with nukes between Russia and NATO.

So we will see a lot of strange moves from both sides(unexplained advances/retreats, many months of fuss with fortified areas, truces from several months to even a couple of years, etc.)

 

[Kvothe]

Currently winning a war against the so called Ukraine(failed state even before open conflict) just means further escalation.

I think for Russians the main plan is to not win but rather blow away another passionate overheating of Europe against Russia and this may take 2 to 10 years.
Sucks for UA to be the playground for this but still relatively better than having full scale WW3 with nukes between Russia and NATO.

So we will see a lot of strange moves from both sides(unexplained advances/retreats, many months of fuss with fortified areas, truces from several months to even a couple of years, etc.)

We'll see many things from the Russians, but unexplained advances will not be one of them.

Josep Borrell, high envoy of the EU for foreign and defense Affairs is cited as saying: if true that Russia lost 15% of its deployed troops already, that’s a „World record“ (sic) for an invading army.

I don't know what number he is referring to, but 15% seems too low, if we're talking about killed, captured, and wounded. For all troops, 20-25% sounds reasonable, and for ground combat forces I'd say the British estimate of roughly 30% seems right. Like I said, the Russians are done for without any means to recover from their loss of personell.

Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK

Ministry of Defence says Putin’s campaign in the east has lost momentum and has failed to make big gains in past month

www.theguardian.com

 

[Perry Staltic]

Ukraine may be able to mobilize a million man army at the barrel of a gun, but there's no way they can build an army that wants to fight when someone 1000 miles away can press a button and do this. They couldn't even raise a decent army from their population during peacetime, much less now.


View: https://twitter.com/Levi_godman/status/1526601646951784448

 

[LeeLemonoil]

We'll see many things from the Russians, but unexplained advances will not be one of them.


I don't know what number he is referring to, but 15% seems too low, if we're talking about killed, captured, and wounded. For all troops, 20-25% sounds reasonable, and for ground combat forces I'd say the British estimate of roughly 30% seems right. Like I said, the Russians are done for without any means to recover from their loss of personell.

Russia likely to have lost third of its Ukraine invasion force, says UK

Ministry of Defence says Putin’s campaign in the east has lost momentum and has failed to make big gains in past month

www.theguardian.com

The UK MoD is really not a credible source and they don’t care if they put their credibility on the line.

The United Kingdom, its elites, the state and sadly also many of its people, hate Russia. They are Russophobes like no tomorrow. Since centuries even.

 

[Kvothe]

The UK MoD is really not a credible source and they don’t care if they put their credibility on the line.

The United Kingdom, its elites, the state and sadly also many of its people, hate Russia. They are Russophobes like no tomorrow. Since centuries even.

No doubt about that but it's also just a question of logic. Usually, an army always takes more losses in wounded and prisoners than killed. By this time it's safe to assume the Russians have suffered at least 10k killed. Assuming they have 2 wounded soldiers for every one killed, that brings us up to around 30k losses. That would be 20-25% depending on what you mean by "Russian" forces, or how many exactely they had to begin with. Since there is a big chunk of soldiers that are not combat troops fighting at the front, 30% for ground combat forces is not unrealistic, at all.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

No doubt about that but it's also just a question of logic. Usually, an army always takes more losses in wounded and prisoners than killed. By this time it's safe to assume the Russians have suffered at least 10k killed. Assuming they have 2 wounded soldiers for every one killed, that brings us up to around 30k losses. That would be 20-25% depending on what you mean by "Russian" forces, or how many exactely that had to begin with. Since there is a big chunk of soldiers that are not combat troops fighting at the front, 30% for ground combat forces is not unrealistic, at all.

True

 

[rockarolla]

We'll see many things from the Russians, but unexplained advances will not be one of them.

Also for Russians current task #1 is to clean themselves out of pro-Ukrainian elites, West influencers/agents, oligarchs robbing them. This itself could take a couple of years at least. Even UA front is secondary to this.