Trump Elected Again?

[LucyL]

I think people universally underestimate the reason Trump won the first time is because the general populace LOATHED Hillary Clinton. Fear and Loathing. Question this time is, does the general populace feel the same way now about Trump? I tend to think mostly twitter extremists are the only ones that deeply hate Trump. But Trumps problem is, people don't hate Biden.

 

[tankasnowgod]

People in cities here might be hesitant to openly show support for Trump for fear of violence or destruction of their property but it’s very different in the rural areas. I see more and more Trump campaign signs the further you get from metropolitan areas.

The only two counties that I know of that are heavily conservative are Maricopa County in Arizona (where Phoenix is), and Orange County California (in bewteen LA and San Diego).

 

[Kvothe]

The question isn't whether Trump has a "real chance," but whether Biden has ANY chance.

I don't know why anyone puts any credibility at all in polls. Issues with polling have been well known since at least 1980, when the polls were way off in Carter's favor. Bottom line, it's terrible science- ask some people who they will vote for (usually by cell phone nowadays), and then "adjust" the result to more accurately reflect party split in the country compared with their sample. In other words, part of the formula is to NOT even report the data they get.

Of course, since in cities, wearing a MAGA hat can land you in the hospital, if not dead (hat tip to Razorfist for that analogy), it's no shock that many Trump supporters might not tell a pollster or other stranger their views. A problem with polls regardless.

A better metric is to look at enthusiasm for the candidate (still a ton for Trump as witnessed by the Boat Parades, nothing really for Biden), or campaign donations (if you give a candidate money, you will probably give them your vote), or better yet, look at who people ACTUALLY voted for. This is what the primary model is all about-

The Primary Model

Biden is the bottom of the barrel, even for Democrats, he drew 1 and 2% is so many of the primaries.

Look at Trump rallies that draw tens (if not hundreds, in some cases) of thousands of people, vs. Biden rallies which have 3-5 people socially distanced in odd circles. Look at the Democrat Convention, which was a glorified zoom call, vs. the Republican Convention, which looked epic and historic.

I've seen many Biden signs near where I live, and the only thing they promote is that Biden isn't Trump (using the whole sign to say "Bye Don," or some takeoff on the Make America Great Again slogan).

Beyond all that, if Trump simply holds all the states he had (he can even lose a few)in 2016, he's re-elected. I've not seen any strategy from Democrats to seriously try and flip Florida, Ohio, or Michigan, and realistically, they probably need at least two of those states to have any chance.

To quote Joe Biden himself at one of his campaign rallies, "We Can Only Re-Elect Donald Trump."

I say that without favoring any of the two, but it looks bad for Trump. The link you posted showed examples of candidates ahead in early polls. We are not in the early season anymore, and Trump is 8 points behind in the national polls. I think he has simply overdone it with his act (I hope) as the simple-minded clown - I still know a few conservative-minded people in the U.S. and they are simply disgusted by him. If Trump had just behaved a little less ridiculous, a little less embarrassing, this election would be a safe bet against someone like Biden. However, after the last 4 years I can't possibly see him winning, he has simply put off too many Republicans with an IQ greater than 90.

 

[tankasnowgod]

I think people universally underestimate the reason Trump won the first time is because the general populace LOATHED Hillary Clinton. Fear and Loathing. Question this time is, does the general populace feel the same way now about Trump? I tend to think mostly twitter extremists are the only ones that deeply hate Trump. But Trumps problem is, people don't hate Biden.

Sure, it was a backlash against Hillary Clinton..... but it was also a backlash against Obama, the Bushes, the Mainstream Media, the Democrat Party, the Republican Party, Political Correctness, and on and on.

Trump is also a magnetic character, who was very well liked until he took that escalator ride in 2015. He had a very popular TV show, is in the WWE Hall of Fame, had all sorts of stories of generosity for people, was mentioned in so many rap songs, and appeared in a Bobby Brown video. All this on top of his financial success, mostly in the real estate world.

In short, he was the ideal of The American Dream, in so many ways.

The Dave Portnoy interview really captures that-



I don't think you will find anyone that voted for Trump in 2016 that would even consider a vote for Biden in 2020. If anything, they would just stay home and not vote, but things like the rallies and boat parades, and even the thrill of voting for Trump in an uncontested primary, indicate otherwise.

 

[tankasnowgod]

I say that without favoring any of the two, but it looks bad for Trump. The link you posted showed examples of candidates ahead in early polls. .

The link I posted didn't have anything to do with polls. It had to do with the Primaries. Where people actually go out and vote for a candidate. Not tell someone on the phone who they prefer.

Trump, in an uncontested primary, often got more votes than the top three Democrats COMBINED within the same state.

Even if you have conservative friends who are "disgusted" with him, that doesn't mean they won't vote for him. I know someone in 2016 who thought Trump was a total idiot, but still voted for him. It was an easy choice for him, simply for the Supreme Court Justice nominations alone.

 

[Light]

the Zionist powers which essentially run the entire banking and media industry have such huge control that they'll be able to manipulate the entire election for Biden.

it illustrates their unbelievably powerful influence that they're able to get a man that is as unstable cognitively as he is morally corrupt into the oval office.

be aware that anywhere that has electronic voting stations will be fraught with voter fraud. Why replace a system of paper ballots which works perfectly and costs nothing, with a network of electronic voting machines that cost hundreds of millions to install across the country. ONE reason = VOTER FRAUD.

im neither a trump or Biden fan. i detest the whole system. its laughable how everyone still talks about trump or biden, republicans or democrats. ITS ALL A THEATRE FOR THE SHEEPLE. it doesnt matter who's in the oval office. The banks run everything, how long will it take people to realise this.

As Homer Simpson once said - "we do have only 2 parties - the haves and the havenots". MLK got killed the moment he exposed that on a national/world scale. Peat talks about that in several interviews. No person I have ever spoken to about this (even black people) knew or had considered that "angle" of MLK's work and why he was suddenly killed. Race had (almost) nothing to do with it.

Race has nothing to do with it?

Saying racism isn't real in the face of clear evidence is simply gas-lighting.
Gas -lighting is the most sinister of lies, because it denies you of your experience of reality-
"Who are you going to believe? me or your lying eyes?"
It allows evil to persist - we see black men getting executed by police, we see synagogues burned to the ground -
We SEE it.
When do we stop centuries of lies and start believing our own eyes?


Just like the flat-earthers - who see a flaw in the system but don't have any true scientific understanding- so they retreat into conspiracy theories,
So do some people on this forum, who see the medical and pharmaceutical lies, but don't have the tools to find the truth, so they retreat into conspiracy theories, and all too often into anti-Semitism.
Believing racist theories is the most authoritarian way of thinking, disguised as "seeing the truth others cannot see". It's a double lie.

It's so f**ing disappointing that most people cannot be true free thinkers.

Consider one of the main ideas of Ray's work - that everything in your life affects your health - your job, your partner, your friends, what you eat, what you breath and what you think and believe.

What do you think it might do to your body when your mind is drowning in HATE?

 

[Light]

I don't think you will find anyone that voted for Trump in 2016 that would even consider a vote for Biden in 2020. If anything, they would just stay home and not vote, but things like the rallies and boat parades, and even the thrill of voting for Trump in an uncontested primary, indicate otherwise.

People who voted for Trump and will now vote Biden:





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YdWrBKt3Jw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8oh5Qja6aw&t=6s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYsyuSnyVfg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE-Z98AP9E4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IK8XL_D92o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m90m2BfImk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ct9HX60rojI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFm7rOkiRD4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV2AaD0nYqA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JsRfw86Ct8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tHkQN1RsfU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_i-1GYY-Loc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xJmoM8juwk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSC1M1vmwJM

 

[tankasnowgod]

People who voted for Trump and will now vote Biden:





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YdWrBKt3Jw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8oh5Qja6aw&t=6s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYsyuSnyVfg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE-Z98AP9E4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IK8XL_D92o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m90m2BfImk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ct9HX60rojI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFm7rOkiRD4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV2AaD0nYqA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JsRfw86Ct8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tHkQN1RsfU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_i-1GYY-Loc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xJmoM8juwk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSC1M1vmwJM

Got any links outside of that ONE Youtube channel? That obviously, by it's name (Republican Voters Against Trump, created May 2020, and is a Bill Kristol production), set out to create that very narrative?

And again, nothing there negates the primaries, the rallies, the boat parades, and so on.

 

[shine]

Good morning, Sunday morning!

 

[Light]

Got any links outside of that ONE Youtube channel? That obviously, by it's name (Republican Voters Against Trump, created May 2020), set out to create that very narrative?

And again, nothing there negates the primaries, the rallies, the boat parades, and so on.

You said "I don't think you will find anyone that voted for Trump in 2016 that would even consider a vote for Biden in 2020", that's clearly wrong.
Trump supporters who flip to Biden can suffer retribution from the people who still support him, several of these people lost contact with their families because of it, it makes sense they would bound together.

Regarding the rallies, the boats etc. - Trump NEVER had a majority,
He lost by the biggest margin in US history and is sure to lose the popular vote by millions again,
the only question is the electoral college.

 

[tankasnowgod]

You said "I don't think you will find anyone that voted for Trump in 2016 that would even consider a vote for Biden in 2020", that's clearly wrong.

Fair enough, I'll amend that statement- I don't think you will find anyone that voted for Trump in 2016 that would even consider a vote for Biden in 2020, unless they are being paid by William Kristol (or other well known "Never Trump" media) to say otherwise.

the only question is the electoral collage.

That's the only thing that has ever mattered.

 

[Light]

That's the only thing that has ever mattered.

Of course he can still win, the same way he won in 2016.
By a perversion of democracy, not because he"was the ideal of The American Dream".

 

[tankasnowgod]

Of course he can still win, the same way he won in 2016.
By a perversion of democracy, not because he"was the ideal of The American Dream".

I just re-read the Constitution last week, and I did not see the word "Democracy" anywhere in that document. It also didn't appear in the Declaration of Independence, nor the Bill of Rights. If I am wrong, can you point me to where I might find that word in any of those documents, or the Aritcles of Confederation, for that matter?

The United States of America isn't a "Democracy," and was never supposed to be.

If you are interested in how a President is elected in the United States of America, I suggest you re-read Article 2 of the Constitution. It tells you the process very clearly.

 

[Light]

I just re-read the Constitution last week, and I did not see the word "Democracy" anywhere in that document. It also didn't appear in the Declaration of Independence, nor the Bill of Rights. If I am wrong, can you point me to where I might find that word in any of those documents, or the Aritcles of Confederation, for that matter?

The United States of America isn't a "Democracy," and was never supposed to be.

If you are interested in how a President is elected in the United States of America, I suggest you re-read Article 2 of the Constitution. It tells you the process very clearly.

Legal does not equal legitimate.
Slavery was legal.

 

[tankasnowgod]

Legal does not equal legitimate.
Slavery was legal.

If this is your position, then no President of the United States in history is "legitimate." This is how the process has worked since 1789. I don't know what other metric you can go by, other than the official rules set up beforehand.

 

[Peatful]

Asking primarily the Americans on here that follow the developments.
I‘m not from the US and it is difficult to get a serious overview about polls and surveys and chances of the coming election.

In Germany virtually all msm are extremely anti-Trump and predict his loss or wishing him a severe loss. Voices that are more cautious or neutral about the possible outcome are scarce despite the previous „upset“

So, what I gather is that most polls see Biden in front but with differing margins. It’s unclear how reliable those polls are when there is increasing pressure not to openly support Trump.
Then there are the swing states that really decide the electoral college/the election, I’m at a loss how things stand there and which states are especially close and crucial this year.

What is your assessment? Is there a real chance that Trump could be elected again or no? And why?

Thanks!

Hi @LeeLemonoil

before this thread blows up in size and possibly diminishes in social graces I want to add a thought...

I am a registered Democrat.
My husband is a registered Republican.

In the mail from our state or local government- I have received SIX different invitations and TWO BALLOTS for our upcoming election.

My husband has received nothing. No flyers. No ballots. No reminders. Nothing.

November 3rd will be chaos.

Biden will win due to “lost and found” absentee ballots and votes.
If he doesn’t win quickly I believe Pelosi will therefore be our interim President?

More to say but I will leave it there.
Thx for your interest in the States.

 

[Light]

If this is your position, then no President of the United States in history is "legitimate." This is how the process has worked since 1789. I don't know what other metric you can go by, other than the official rules set up beforehand.

The other metric is to count the votes.

 

[tankasnowgod]

The other metric is to count the votes.

That's like saying the other metric to determine the winner of a basketball game is to count the assists.

There has never been an election at the Federal level in United States of America. All elections are state run. "Counting the votes" doesn't have any real meaning in this context. Again, the process is not new, it's been around for hundreds of years.

If the rules were changed, that could indeed change candidate strategies, and voter behavior. How many Republicn/Conservative voters in California didn't bother to vote in 2016 because they didn't have any Republican candidates to vote for in local races, and knew that Clinton was a forgone winner of the state's electoral votes? Many more might have, if they knew the "popular vote" was the thing that mattered.

And depending on how the rules were laid out, it could have changed quite a few historical results. If it required a "majority" of votes, Clinton might never have gotten into office. He never had a majority either time he ran.

 

[Light]

If the rules were changed, that could indeed change candidate strategies, and voter behavior. How many Republicn/Conservative voters in California didn't bother to vote in 2016 because they didn't have any Republican candidates to vote for in local races, and knew that Clinton was a forgone winner of the state's electoral votes? Many more might have, if they knew the "popular vote" was the thing that mattered.

I want things to be FAIR.
If Republicans can win the poeople's vote - so be it.
That would be legitimate.
But if that is true - why the Gerrymandering? Why the voter suppression?
This is minority rule.
This is jungle rules - the most power hungry wins.
The most corrupt wins.
This is NOT by the people, for the people.

Remember Maximilien Robespierre - Wikipedia ?
If you don't stand for what's right for everyone,
How can you expect things to be right for you?

 

[Geronimo]

Race has nothing to do with it?

Saying racism isn't real in the face of clear evidence is simply gas-lighting.
Gas -lighting is the most sinister of lies, because it denies you of your experience of reality-
"Who are you going to believe? me or your lying eyes?"
It allows evil to persist - we see black men getting executed by police, we see synagogues burned to the ground -
We SEE it.
When do we stop centuries of lies and start believing our own eyes?


Just like the flat-earthers - who see a flaw in the system but don't have any true scientific understanding- so they retreat into conspiracy theories,
So do some people on this forum, who see the medical and pharmaceutical lies, but don't have the tools to find the truth, so they retreat into conspiracy theories, and all too often into anti-Semitism.
Believing racist theories is the most authoritarian way of thinking, disguised as "seeing the truth others cannot see". It's a double lie.

It's so f**ing disappointing that most people cannot be true free thinkers.

Consider one of the main ideas of Ray's work - that everything in your life affects your health - your job, your partner, your friends, what you eat, what you breath and what you think and believe.

What do you think it might do to your body when your mind is drowning in HATE?

The classic "flat earth is a conspiracy so all conspiracy theorists must be wrong" argument. You even fall into the common trap of broadly and blindly associating it with anti-semitism lol. Could you willfully expose your own stupidity more than you did here? I don't think that's possible. I almost feel bad, because this is such a layup. I say "almost" because your type of ignorance is the most pathetic and dangerous of all. Keep hiding behind your "moral superiority" while ignoring complex thought. If you think we haven't exposed truth about health industry lies, then you must be very very new to this forum. I have a question for you, since you're such an expert on the matter: which conspiracies are real?