Trump Elected Again?

LeeLemonoil

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Asking primarily the Americans on here that follow the developments.
I‘m not from the US and it is difficult to get a serious overview about polls and surveys and chances of the coming election.

In Germany virtually all msm are extremely anti-Trump and predict his loss or wishing him a severe loss. Voices that are more cautious or neutral about the possible outcome are scarce despite the previous „upset“

So, what I gather is that most polls see Biden in front but with differing margins. It’s unclear how reliable those polls are when there is increasing pressure not to openly support Trump.
Then there are the swing states that really decide the electoral college/the election, I’m at a loss how things stand there and which states are especially close and crucial this year.

What is your assessment? Is there a real chance that Trump could be elected again or no? And why?

Thanks!
 

Frankdee20

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I mean, it’s retarded, Democrats are now on board to follow a vindictive self entitled woman like Pelosi, and attempt another impeachment of this president, and why ? So he can’t replace a vacant justice seat ? Why is it okay for Obama to appoint judges but not Trump ? I’m so sick of this hate and division and appeasing blacks so they don’t vote for Trump, BLA BLA BLA !
 

Blossom

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People in cities here might be hesitant to openly show support for Trump for fear of violence or destruction of their property but it’s very different in the rural areas. I see more and more Trump campaign signs the further you get from metropolitan areas.
 

LeeLemonoil

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Apart from BLM-diehards and Antifa-psychopaths do the black or non-white population was of the US really consider Trump and supporters as racists? I don’t have that impression and from my limited experiences with conservative and rural Americans (white) Id think nobody but small remnants are true racists
 

Kvothe

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Apart from BLM-diehards and Antifa-psychopaths do the black or non-white population was of the US really consider Trump and supporters as racists? I don’t have that impression and from my limited experiences with conservative and rural Americans (white) Id think nobody but small remnants are true racists

I don't think the majority of people consider him a racist. They most definitely consider him an idiot. I think nobody likes Biden, but I think it is highly unlikely that Trump will win a second time. Most people seem pretty sick of a president that is this embarrassingly stupid.
 

LeeLemonoil

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Yes, Trump‘s intellect isn’t the best reason for a pro-vote, but his alleged stupidity is overblown. Sometimes I feel his press conferences and the like are deliberate trolling efforts.

But most people would vote not for him but against the other camp won’t they? Millions and millions of Americans don’t have anything to expect from or thank either party for. Even if a trump admin is in detail doing politics against their interest they gain one thing, the most important thing: a big fat **** you to the establishment and the leftist bubbles.

And that’s the big question. How many are sick of Trumps unconventional politics and persona that wouldn’t vote for him anyway
 
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As in the UK with a 2 party system you are given the 'illusion' of democracy, but only on 'their' terms. A new type of politics is required but I'm not smart enough to know what that could be :(
 

ddjd

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the Zionist powers which essentially run the entire banking and media industry have such huge control that they'll be able to manipulate the entire election for Biden.

it illustrates their unbelievably powerful influence that they're able to get a man that is as unstable cognitively as he is morally corrupt into the oval office.

be aware that anywhere that has electronic voting stations will be fraught with voter fraud. Why replace a system of paper ballots which works perfectly and costs nothing, with a network of electronic voting machines that cost hundreds of millions to install across the country. ONE reason = VOTER FRAUD.

im neither a trump or Biden fan. i detest the whole system. its laughable how everyone still talks about trump or biden, republicans or democrats. ITS ALL A THEATRE FOR THE SHEEPLE. it doesnt matter who's in the oval office. The banks run everything, how long will it take people to realise this.
 

haidut

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But most people would vote not for him but against the other camp won’t they?

Actually, polls on both sides say it is the other way around. Namely, Trump's base is shaking with excitement to vote FOR him and crush the "phony libs". The Democrat voters actually dislike Biden and think he is a poor candidate, but absolutely hate Trump and would vote for Biden as a vote against Trump. I guess time will tell which group/message/approach is more effective.
 

haidut

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The banks run everything, how long will it take people to realise this.

As Homer Simpson once said - "we do have only 2 parties - the haves and the havenots". MLK got killed the moment he exposed that on a national/world scale. Peat talks about that in several interviews. No person I have ever spoken to about this (even black people) knew or had considered that "angle" of MLK's work and why he was suddenly killed. Race had (almost) nothing to do with it.
 

Tarmander

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Gotta see how the debates are handled, but it's leaning Trump. Huge amount of black votes going his way compared to other repub candidates in the past
 

tankasnowgod

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Asking primarily the Americans on here that follow the developments.
I‘m not from the US and it is difficult to get a serious overview about polls and surveys and chances of the coming election.

In Germany virtually all msm are extremely anti-Trump and predict his loss or wishing him a severe loss. Voices that are more cautious or neutral about the possible outcome are scarce despite the previous „upset“

So, what I gather is that most polls see Biden in front but with differing margins. It’s unclear how reliable those polls are when there is increasing pressure not to openly support Trump.
Then there are the swing states that really decide the electoral college/the election, I’m at a loss how things stand there and which states are especially close and crucial this year.

What is your assessment? Is there a real chance that Trump could be elected again or no? And why?

Thanks!

The question isn't whether Trump has a "real chance," but whether Biden has ANY chance.

I don't know why anyone puts any credibility at all in polls. Issues with polling have been well known since at least 1980, when the polls were way off in Carter's favor. Bottom line, it's terrible science- ask some people who they will vote for (usually by cell phone nowadays), and then "adjust" the result to more accurately reflect party split in the country compared with their sample. In other words, part of the formula is to NOT even report the data they get.

Of course, since in cities, wearing a MAGA hat can land you in the hospital, if not dead (hat tip to Razorfist for that analogy), it's no shock that many Trump supporters might not tell a pollster or other stranger their views. A problem with polls regardless.

A better metric is to look at enthusiasm for the candidate (still a ton for Trump as witnessed by the Boat Parades, nothing really for Biden), or campaign donations (if you give a candidate money, you will probably give them your vote), or better yet, look at who people ACTUALLY voted for. This is what the primary model is all about-

The Primary Model

Biden is the bottom of the barrel, even for Democrats, he drew 1 and 2% is so many of the primaries.

Look at Trump rallies that draw tens (if not hundreds, in some cases) of thousands of people, vs. Biden rallies which have 3-5 people socially distanced in odd circles. Look at the Democrat Convention, which was a glorified zoom call, vs. the Republican Convention, which looked epic and historic.

I've seen many Biden signs near where I live, and the only thing they promote is that Biden isn't Trump (using the whole sign to say "Bye Don," or some takeoff on the Make America Great Again slogan).

Beyond all that, if Trump simply holds all the states he had (he can even lose a few)in 2016, he's re-elected. I've not seen any strategy from Democrats to seriously try and flip Florida, Ohio, or Michigan, and realistically, they probably need at least two of those states to have any chance.

To quote Joe Biden himself at one of his campaign rallies, "We Can Only Re-Elect Donald Trump."
 
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Jessie

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Biden put the final nails in his own coffin when he said he was going to "shut down the economy" to combat COVID-19.

Working class Americans won't tolerate this.

The democrats have been stalling with their votes ever since they abandon class. Democrats no longer care about class, they care more about identity politics, intersectionality, and anti-gun policies. None of this resonates with voters, democratic voters want improvements in labour. Until they return to their roots, they will be fighting a uphill battle.
 

Geronimo

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Trump took us out of several globalist groups, notably the Paris Climate Deal. This was the biggest piece of the globalist agenda, putting everyone under their restrictions to prevent climate change. The liberal media is very obviously globalist media. They are pathetically desperate to get Trump out. I was a liberal until 3 years ago when I noticed this stuff. I hate hate hate liberals now. They are intolerable, and are the main group keeping the covid madness going. And they support foreign donors (soros) funding the destruction of our cities. It's madness. It is absolutely impossible to talk to a common liberal right now. They are mentally ill. And I'm definitely not a republican.
 
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Trump has also kept us from starting a new war, but there is plenty of saber rattling and a very bad assassination in Iran that will be creating blowback. Still, no new wars which is good.
 

Regina

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People in cities here might be hesitant to openly show support for Trump for fear of violence or destruction of their property but it’s very different in the rural areas. I see more and more Trump campaign signs the further you get from metropolitan areas.
Very true. I learned that in the first days of entering a dog park in Chicago. Virtually no one would dare say anything supportive of a conservative idea. "Progressivism" is the city's religion.
 
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LucyL

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People in cities here might be hesitant to openly show support for Trump for fear of violence or destruction of their property but it’s very different in the rural areas. I see more and more Trump campaign signs the further you get from metropolitan areas.
Without a doubt, Trump owns rural America - even blue states like Minnesota, the Trump / Biden sign ratio is 100 to 1 and that would include BLM signs, without any mention of Biden.
 

Geronimo

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Very true. I learned that in the first days of entering a dog park in Chicago. Virtually no one would day say anything supportive of a conservative idea. "Progressivism" is the city's religion.

The DNC: Denialist Narcissist Cult. "I don't care what you say, my group is morally superior and we'll do anything to prove it". They're supporting the following: mass biased censorship by the biggest tech companies, complete 100% ignorance of all facts about their candidates, supporting the destruction of American cities made possible by hundreds of millions of dollars from foreign donors who are known to support civil unrest in other countries that led to coups, pushing the incredibly dangerous covid fear mongering because their liberal media tells them to. They are unwitting soldiers in the army of their enemies. Again, I am not a republican.
 
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