Ukraine Crisis

[rockarolla]

:)

 

[rockarolla]

they have a 5 day time window to achieve success

Why Hohols are so pleased with themselves, while Russians, on the contrary, constantly squabble. And ((they)) say nations do not exist, this is all an invention of people of good will, i.e. allegedly, there are only races.

Tell the Ukrainian: "You are an idiot, now jump out of the window", - he will spread himself in the window, or even try to push you instead. But tell the Ukrainian: “You are the greatest genius of all times, it's okay that you burned all the books and you can't read anymore, your ancestors dug the Black Sea though, so now go on and jump out of the window”, and the desired bang will be heard in a second. Very predictable and basic robotic reactions.

 

[rockarolla]

We know from history that a slave does not seek freedom, but only a new good master. For centuries, the Ukrainians (aka South Russian peasants) were dominated by Poles, then Russians, then again Poles, then again Russians, and now the Americans. But who will take Vladimir? Is it Comrade Xi? :)

View: https://imgur.com/a/t3sup2f

 

[rockarolla]

 

[Peachy]

Thanks @Veritas IV for all the sources.

Which book is this from?

“Page 25
Russian nuclear doctrine puts even more emphasis on the importance of striking first, achieving surprise and preemption, than did Soviet doctrine. 70 Moscow’s strategic posture relying so heavily on ICBMs (even Russian SSBNs are armed with ICBMs that can be launched dockside) appears designed for surprise attack.”

It’s my understanding that Russian nuclear doctrine doesn’t allow first strike. But it also doesn’t allow second. Meaning if they track an incoming nuke they have a dead hand option for a massive nuclear strike. This is per Scott Ritter a couple months ago, I just can’t find the video.

 

[Perry Staltic]

View attachment 48686

It will be a blessing to get that place cleansed. That's where UAF has been shelling civilians in Donetsk from


View: https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1637808931765469186

View: https://twitter.com/LogKa11/status/1637808249616359426

View: https://twitter.com/tretter50001/status/1637768547563700225

 

[Peachy]

Thanks @Veritas IV for all the sources.

Which book is this from?

“Page 25
Russian nuclear doctrine puts even more emphasis on the importance of striking first, achieving surprise and preemption, than did Soviet doctrine. 70 Moscow’s strategic posture relying so heavily on ICBMs (even Russian SSBNs are armed with ICBMs that can be launched dockside) appears designed for surprise attack.”

It’s my understanding that Russian nuclear doctrine doesn’t allow first strike. But it also doesn’t allow second. Meaning if they track an incoming nuke they have a dead hand option for a massive nuclear strike. This is per Scott Ritter a couple months ago, I just can’t find the video.

Actually now that I think about it, I don’t see how a no-first-strike clause would be compatible with Russia allowing nuclear strikes if their survival is threatened conventional weapons. Which they do.

 

[rockarolla]

It will be a blessing to get that place cleansed. That's where UAF has been shelling civilians in Donetsk from

3 residential areas of Donetsk were 155mm shelled today.

 

[Peachy]

Interesting thread on a Yale report funded by the US State Department on Russia’s deportation of children to camps (released just weeks before the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin).

Purely based on open source data. Zero actual investigation.

They slipped this little side note of truth into the otherwise junk report.

View: https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1637804470808584194?s=20


View: https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1637807543094312960?s=20


View: https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1637809969524269064?s=20


Full report:

https://hub.conflictobservatory.org/portal/sharing/rest/content/items/97f919ccfe524d31a241b53ca44076b8/data

 

[Veritas IV]

Thanks @Veritas IV for all the sources.

Which book is this from?

“Page 25
Russian nuclear doctrine puts even more emphasis on the importance of striking first, achieving surprise and preemption, than did Soviet doctrine. 70 Moscow’s strategic posture relying so heavily on ICBMs (even Russian SSBNs are armed with ICBMs that can be launched dockside) appears designed for surprise attack.”

It’s my understanding that Russian nuclear doctrine doesn’t allow first strike. But it also doesn’t allow second. Meaning if they track an incoming nuke they have a dead hand option for a massive nuclear strike. This is per Scott Ritter a couple months ago, I just can’t find the video.

Very welcome, i see i've missed a few links and am always gathering more, will post more in the future.

That page 25 excerpt you're inquiring about actually comes from an assesment, it's the PDF download link i posted right below it.

As for first strike, the reality is Russia, US, China would all do a first strike despite pledges to the contrary. They're just seeking ways to do it, and time it just right, where there will be minimal repercussion to themselves. The US's greatest protection from sneaky first strikes is the Triad of land based, airplane bomber, naval/submarine. It's this system that's kept first strikes at bay. The newer Russian subs may nullify our naval/sub component, as per that PDF.

Thanks @Veritas IV, some interesting sources and sites I didn’t know before.

Just finished the last installment about the potential Bakhmut deblocking OP. Reads concerning, and if UAF manage to strike simultaneously from Kherson and towards Zapo then collapse of Russian positions is a real possibility

My pleasure!

And yes i agree, there's a real possibility that some lines will bend or be be redrawn in the upcoming counter-offensives. Afterwards imagine someone shouting "ok everyone, let's have peace talks" which buys everyone time to consolodate, regroup and later resume hostilities. It can pan out so many different ways.

One insipid motivation is that long held lust for a Crimean NATO naval base and thus control of the Black sea. Circumventing an uncooperative Turkey would be yet another benefit.

Speaking of an uncooperative Turkey, has anyone here monitored developments in Cyprus over the past year or so? It's new president sounded like he was reciting from the same zombie script as Moldava's Sandu, which is actually a repeat performance of the Ukraine script, The Cyprus stirrings are to pressure Turkey's Erdogan into cooperating. So fully enacting the Cyprus option is either paused or still slowly underway. It's not too difficult to guess what other nations would get involved here, including the one who would get the "Poland cheerleader, supply role with possible irredentist intention", cough.

I didn't bookmark all of the Cyprus articles but here's two of them:

1) Washington Ratchets Up Maritime Disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean | naked capitalism (scroll down)
2) Anastasiades: Cyprus will continue its energy policy despite Turkish threats | Cyprus Mail

Tell the Ukrainian: "You are an idiot, now jump out of the window", - he will spread himself in the window, or even try to push you instead. But tell the Ukrainian: “You are the greatest genius of all times, it's okay that you burned all the books and you can't read anymore, your ancestors dug the Black Sea though, so now go on and jump out of the window”, and the desired bang will be heard in a second. Very predictable and basic robotic reactions.

Lol, am going to file this under things i've learned from constructive criticism.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

It's not too difficult to guess what other nations would get involved here, including the one who would get the "Poland cheerleader, supply role with possible irredentist intention", cough.

Saals Greece would be easily stirred and manipulated into such an exact role.

 

[Peachy]

View: https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1637854021581955081?s=20

 

[Perry Staltic]

Can testify that it was a thing when I was growing up


View: https://twitter.com/Amon_Fire/status/1637728464080973824


View: https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1536151847781601280

 

[rockarolla]

Why Russia’s Poseidon Thermonuclear Torpedo Is Atomic Overkill

Even Dr. Strangelove would find this weapon to be a bit much.

nationalinterest.org

But that leaves the question of why Russia would choose to nuke an American city with an underwater drone – even one that allegedly travels 100 miles an hour – when an ICBM can do the job in 30 minutes.

 

[Peachy]

The experienced DPR troops are spearheading the battle for Adveevka. The Sparta battalion, etc. Troops that’ve been involved since 2014. They certainly have a personal stake in it. (newer Russian forces are involved with shelling, bombing, supplies)

(21:00)


View: https://youtu.be/oEGp5k4Nw1U

 

[rockarolla]

 

[Perry Staltic]

 

[rockarolla]

~~~>>>


View: https://imgur.com/a/c8Fhz3u

 

[Perry Staltic]

View: https://twitter.com/mickmackpaullin/status/1618308195554058241

 

[rockarolla]