Worth the read

[rothko]

Are the vaccines doomed, or are we?

In the period from 6 December to 2 January (Table 5 on p. 25), double (but not triple) vaccinated teenagers and adults were substantially over-represented in Omicron infections across Germany. About 45% of teenagers aged 12–17 are vaccinated but unboosted, but they accounted for almost 55% of...

eugyppius.substack.com

This is a generally pessimistic view of the outcome -- although more or less realistic, I believe. I specifically agree with the point of the quoted passage -- I have not seen enough of a signal in all cause mortality. Unless this is delayed by several years, it wont be obvious enough to not ignore. And by that time maybe no one would ever care. Hopefully we win some of these cultural debates around mandates. I'm not sure how to win the larger war though.

 

[Havde]

Haidut posted a similar thread and I still havn't gotten an answer to my critique:
The study from Germany only looked at Omicron.
I want to know if vaccinated also had a greater risk of getting infected with Delta compared to unvaccinated.
Otherwise I can't see how the data is relevant.

 

[rothko]

I want to know if vaccinated also had a greater risk of getting infected with Delta compared to unvaccinated.

I think that they didnt for first 6m post first vaccination. But then forever after did and will. Including after any booster - besides short period of supression ... possibly... probably not.

Also can you expand on what you mean. Your comments to short to get the jist of what you mean

 

[Havde]

I think that they didnt for first 6m post first vaccination. But then forever after did and will. Including after any booster - besides short period of supression ... possibly... probably not.

Also can you expand on what you mean. Your comments to short to get the jist of what you mean

If I understood the data correctly it says that vaccinated people had a higher "risk" of getting infected with Omicron compared to unvaccinated people.
That could be either good or bad depending on what the alternative is;
Not infected at all (better outcome) or infected with Delta (worse outcome).

A hypothetical scenario: 100% of vaccinated people get infected with Omicron and 100% of unvaccinated people get infected with Delta.
Since the data is only looking at Omicron infection it would seem like the vaccinated people are at a disadvantage which would be a huge mistake IMO.

Besides, the data doesn't say anything about severity of the infection.

Another hypothetical scenario: 100% of vaccinated people get infected but develop no symptoms at all but only 20% of unvaccinated people get infected but develop severe symptoms. Again, interpreting that as a disadvantage to being vaccinated would be a mistake IMO.

Hope that clears up any confusion about my sceptisism of the data.