Why Do People Think New Coronavirus Is A Normal Flu?

[tankasnowgod]

Really interesting, and a great argument that quarantining saves lives.

I don't think the lockdown orders and people staying at home can really be called "quarantine." Personally, I still encounter about 20-50 people a day on average. A reduced number from usual, sure, but certainly not zero. I still go shopping, and am getting deliveries (and not by robot or drone), so I am not alone with this. Quarantine implies complete isolation, often with protective equipment like plastic and hazmat suits, this really isn't happening, so it doesn't really prove anything about that practice.

 

[ecstatichamster]

hamster, what measures are you taking to fight it? Vitamin c, pharmaceuticals, etc?

methylene blue, high dose C
losartan
cyproheptadine
acetazolamide
zithromax
amoxycillin

this is very serious. I know if I didn't have the Buteyko knowledge, I'd be gasping for air and would end up in the hospital where they would kill me. We have wonderful health professionals here I don't want to sound mean to them. They are doing what they are told. But the pure oxygen, proning, antivirals are all really really bad.

 

[energyandstruct]

You have death anxiety...otherwise you wouldn't be making such bombastic statements.

edit: quoted the wrong post, but message stands.

Lol. This is just an ad hominem argument. Trying to psychoanalyze people online is dumb and is a sign you're losing the argument

 

[energyandstruct]

But what if it doesn't surpass flu deaths? Seasonal flu is estimated to kill 300,000 to 500,000 a year, every year. This particular mutation of the family of Corona Viruses (which have been going around the planet for decades, at least) has only been associated with 40,000 deaths so far (not necessarily causal, mind you), over 4 months. Assuming it doubles that rate in the summer months (which no other disease ever has), and taking the numbers at face value, you are left with 40,000 plus 80,000 over 8 months, for a total of 120,000. Double that number again in the winter months? Fine. You're up to 240,000. Not even to the Seasonal Flu yearly estimate, and that is being very, very generous with the math.

Then it has to do that same thing next year. And the year after that. And the year after that. And so on.

You're really shifting goalposts

It will kill around 300000 to 1 million in the US alone , if we stay on current trajectory. In one season. Worldwide, it will kill way more than the seasonal flu for this year. But now you say it would have to do that yearly to matter.

So as soon as it becomes worse than the flu the goalpost gets shifted. I think that's dishonest argumentation.

If we come up with a treatment for it and people build immunity it probably won't do that in subsequent years.

But its not about total deaths over time. It's about how fast it spreads and how it overwhelms the healthcare system.

 

[energyandstruct]

know if I didn't have the Buteyko knowledge, I'd be gasping for air and would end up in the hospital where they would kill me. We have wonderful health professionals here I don't want to sound mean to them. They are doing what they are told. But the pure oxygen, proning, antivirals are all really really bad.

I posted elsewhere about how since so much building air is toxic, even pure oxygen which is somewhat toxic, might be temporarily better than just breathing air in a room.

But I do think carbogen would be better


I also think if you have a"mild" case that isnt causing lungs to fill with fluid but causes heart issues, intravenous saline could be very helpful, but otherwise I agree.

Anyway I agree that its very serious, I had a nasty case of it a couple weeks ago and still haven't gotten back to normal baseline. But good luck convincing people of that on here. It's like banging your head against a brick wall

 

[energyandstruct]

@debored13 are you paid by Bill Gates? What a senseless fearmongering. Otherwise it's an anxiety issue, Xanax maybe?

Notice that I didn't attack anyone, and yet because my arguments touched a nerve, many people responded with their amateur psychoanalysis.

I'm not really scared of covid-19 for myself, if you must know. I have still not fully recovered from my case but now that it's over I at least know that I have immunity to it most likely.

I do worry a little bit bc my dad is in the demographic to be most affected (elderly, with hypertension). So when people say "just old people with underlying conditions are dying ", well I have family who fit that category who I wish to live.

So it would be sociopathic to not care about that. But overall I'm not particularly anxious.

 

[tankasnowgod]

You're really shifting goalposts

It will kill around 300000 to 1 million in the US alone , if we stay on current trajectory. In one season. Worldwide, it will kill way more than the seasonal flu for this year. But now you say it would have to do that yearly to matter.

So as soon as it becomes worse than the flu the goalpost gets shifted. I think that's dishonest argumentation.

If we come up with a treatment for it and people build immunity it probably won't do that in subsequent years.

But its not about total deaths over time. It's about how fast it spreads and how it overwhelms the healthcare system.

I have shifted no goalposts. I was simply giving you an example.

You are claiming "proof" that hasn't happened yet. Based on supposed "exponential" numbers of cases and "exponential" numbers of deaths. They only problem with that? It's due to "exponential" levels of testing. The models you based your assumption that it "will kill" x number of people are flawed, and have already been walked back. Besides, that's in the future. You simply don't get to claim something that hasn't happened yet as "proof."

It's not overloading the healthcare system. In fact, I just posted some articles that the lockdowns are causing layoffs within the healthcare system. Regardless, I don't think forcing 47 Million Americans into unemployment, crushing small businesses, causing mass suicides and blood shortages is a good strategy, when maybe getting a few tents and hiring a few nurses would be a much better option.

The only number that truly matters in a pandemic is excess mortality. So far, it's just not there. If anything, excess mortality is less than this time of year. Everything seems to be little more than an artifact of testing.

 

[methylenewhite]

I'm not really scared of covid-19 for myself, if you must know. I have still not fully recovered from my case but now that it's over I at least know that I have immunity to it most likely.

I wish your dad be fine and healthy, sincerely. I have my mom, 60+ with whatever health issues you can even imagine, my father too. And I'm 14000 km far away from them.

The thing is I'm not attacking you. I'm protecting myself against your fearmongering. I don't want to offend you.

Regarding your case, we never know what we have without confirmation tests. I'm NOT saying you are lying. Stay safe and healthy.

 

[energyandstruct]

You are claiming "proof" that hasn't happened yet. Based on supposed "exponential" numbers of cases and "exponential" numbers of deaths. They only problem with that? It's due to "exponential" levels of testing. The models you based your assumption that it "will kill" x number of people are flawed, and have already been walked back. Besides, that's in the future. You simply don't get to claim something that hasn't happened yet as "proof."

The testing is not exponentially high anywhere. I don't know how you'd get the idea. It's actually extremely low in the US, for example, hiding the true amount of cases.

We can wait a month or so and see how things turn out. I am saying that it's likely that we reach 300000 deaths from this in the US. People were saying we wouldn't even have more than a few deaths back in January, and now already changing their tune based on the exponential growth.

As for all cause mortality being lower, I haven't looked at the numbers, and the pandemic is far from over, but I wonder if that's due to beneficial effects from the lockdown?

We cant really do a controlled experiment here so we can only extrapolate from the data we have available and models, but the quarantine reduced pollution in a number of places, Los Angeles, Italy, the industrial interior of china.

Less overwork, less pollution, and less traffic , could all easily account for lower all cause mortality. So maybe the lockdown is intrinsically good even without considering the beneficial effects in terms of protecting the public from the virus.

Air pollution is a big deal and responsible for lots of cardiovascular disease and lung issues. Ray thinks so too.

 

[energyandstruct]

The thing is I'm not attacking you. I'm protecting myself against your fearmongering. I don't want to offend you.

If that's what you need to do to cope, by all means go ahead. I just think its bizarre to tell someone they need xanax bc they are saying pretty milquetoast, well known facts about a pandemic. Whether u agree on the facts or not

 

[energyandstruct]

I wish your dad be fine and healthy, sincerely. I have my mom, 60+ with whatever health issues you can even imagine, my father too. And I'm 14000 km far away from them.

So let's say that I'm not wrong about the extent of covid spread and mortality, but it still mostly only affects the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Would you have different opinions on quarantine, etc, bc you have elderly family members?

I am disturbed by the ethics of just letting people die bc they're old or already sick. I don't think it's right. Many proposals to restart the economy are being framed in those terms. It's like sacrificing people to moloch

 

[methylenewhite]

So let's say that I'm not wrong about the extent of covid spread and mortality, but it still mostly only affects the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Would you have different opinions on quarantine, etc, bc you have elderly family members?

Call me psycho but I have accepted that covid19 could be the end for them or for me. And yes I'm against quarantine or self isolation because it's a flu.

If that's what you need to do to cope, by all means go ahead. I just think its bizarre to tell someone they need xanax bc they are saying pretty milquetoast, well known facts about a pandemic. Whether u agree on the facts or not

What you are saying is not a know facts about the pandemic. You are fearmongering saying it will kill up to a million people in US only. You know why you are fearmongering? Because even if 1 million people are dead in US alone(I don't want it to happen!) It would be 0.3% mortality rate if we assume everyone gets sick, lower than flu. Saying 1 million instead of 0.3% is a sign of psychological pressure.

 

[energyandstruct]

What you are saying is not a know facts about the pandemic. You are fearmongering saying it will kill up to a million people in US only. You know why you are fearmongering? Because even 1 million people are dead in US alone(I don't want it to happen!) It is 0.3% mortality rate if we assume everyone gets sick, lower than flu. Saying 1 million instead of 0.3% is a sign of psychological pressure.

All we have are models and reasonable extrapolations.

The main people who said that the models saying between 200000 and 1 million people are going to be dead were wrong , like Richard Epstein, have already had their models surpassed by current death toll and that's just on the beginning of the pandemic

I don't understand what you are saying is wrong. If we reach 1 million deaths would it be wrong to say that the coronavirus was serious because it's only. 3 percent of the population?

Even if that mortality rate is the same as the flu the infectivity is far higher, so it makes a difference.

Your interpretation makes no sense to me personally but you are free to interpret it any way you want.

My estimation is between 200000 and 2 million deaths in the US, from this, and cascading effects that cause more additional deaths from hospitals being overburdened causing other sick people to die

 

[energyandstruct]

Call me psycho but I have accepted that covid19 could be the end for them or for me. And yes I'm against quarantine or self isolation because it's a flu.

It's not a flu. Nobodys saying it's the black plague but its definitely more infectious than the flu. Even a small change in infectivity /RO makes a big difference on a globalized population scale in terms of how many people it will kill.

I think the cfr is higher than the flu as well, but even if it was the same as the flu, a very increased infectivity would make it worse ...

Also Case Fatality Rate is contingent on actual treatments. It's not some immutable natural number The case fatality rate would be far higher if we didn't give people supportive care.

So even the highest cfr estimates are probably lower than what it would be if we just let the virus run rampant.

I don't think you're "psycho". Its good to be accepting of death. But I don't see how a quarantine is such an awful thing or the end of the world.

If we can save lives and decrease pollution and traffic while shutting non essential business down for a mere month or two, who loses out on that?

I think that on the contrary, people complaining about the quarantines effect on the economy are fearmongering. I don't care if some bankers or airline companies lose money. I don't care if the Dow Jones goes down. Line on graph going down doesn't scare me. So who is the fearmongerer ?

 

[tankasnowgod]

The testing is not exponentially high anywhere. I don't know how you'd get the idea.

Of course it's exponentially higher.

Number of COVID 19 Tests performed in the US in 2015- 0
Number of COVID 19 Tests performed in the US in 2016- 0
Number of COVID 19 Tests performed in the US in 2017- 0
Number of COVID 19 Tests performed in the US in 2018- 0
Number of COVID 19 Tests performed in the US in 2019- 0
Number of COVID 19 Tests performed in the US in January 2020- 0
Numbers performed since January 2020- Well over 215,000

That's beyond exponential. That's infinitely higher. And it has been ramping up week after week. Don't pretend like that isn't a factor. In fact, that is the ONLY reason you see case numbers and COVID associated deaths rising. You have zero proof the disease wasn't here in December and January. Or Even November and October.

That's why every single model is flawed. Again, if you want to compare it to a true pandemic, like Spanish Flu, you need to use a comparable metric, like deaths per 1000 or increase in all cause mortality. Not an artifact of a new test.

 

[tankasnowgod]

My estimation is between 200000 and 2 million deaths in the US, from this, and cascading effects that cause more additional deaths from hospitals being overburdened causing other sick people to die

And I will ask you this.... what are you basing this on? So far, I haven't seen you post a single source or study, or even a news article. So, if you to convince someone, post your sources.

 

[energyandstruct]

And I will ask you this.... what are you basing this on? So far, I haven't seen you post a single source or study, or even a news article. So, if you to convince someone, post your sources.

The White House task force , which it anything would stand to lose from bad press on covid (trump has been downplaying the virus a lot bc low economic performance could hurt his reelection), estimates death toll btwn 100 and 240k now. But this is based on current mitigation efforts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/31/coronavirus-latest-news/

On the other hand, the imperial college study estimates that if nobody did anything to mitigate it (worst case scenario) the us would reach over 2 million dead

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAFegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd

 

[tankasnowgod]

The White House task force , which it anything would stand to lose from bad press on covid (trump has been downplaying the virus a lot bc low economic performance could hurt his reelection), estimates death toll btwn 100 and 240k now. But this is based on current mitigation efforts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/31/coronavirus-latest-news/

On the other hand, the imperial college study estimates that if nobody did anything to mitigate it (worst case scenario) the us would reach over 2 million dead

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAFegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd

Ah yes, the Imperial College Study, with Neil Ferguson, who dropped his predictions like a lead balloon over a 24 hour period. Not exactly solid ground, there. I'd call that fully discredited, at this point.

And I don't have much trust or faith in the CDC or the Corona Virus task force. Nothing in the post article you linked mentions the methodology, so no clue how they do their modeling.

 

[tankasnowgod]

Yeah, I think Gates had originally quoted 65 million of our most vulnerable. (his wet dream, I guess).

I'm beginning to think now that the 65 Million target wasn't deaths, but the number Americans collecting unemployment in the month of April 2020.

 

[Entropy]

Imperial College UK COVID-19 numbers don’t seem to add up

Imperial College UK COVID-19 numbers don’t seem to add up