Ukraine Crisis

[Perry Staltic]

Poland making its move. "Temporary"

Моравецкий призвал Зеленского отдать западную Украину под временный протекторат Польши

Премьерминистр Польши Матеуш Маровецкий призвал Зеленского временно передать западную Украину под защиту Польши

sm.news

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Poland making its move. "Temporary"

Моравецкий призвал Зеленского отдать западную Украину под временный протекторат Польши

Премьерминистр Польши Матеуш Маровецкий призвал Зеленского временно передать западную Украину под защиту Польши

sm.news

Would be nice, since then massive fallout between nationalistic Poles on the one and Nazi-Nationalist Banderites on the other side is guaranteed.

Cant see it happen though. And there is no precedent or possibility in international law. If Russia attacks Liviv, it’s Ukraine, not Poland. NATO countries won’t see it any other way if they have to chose between article 5 or all out war because of chauvinistic wet dreams

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Former Israeli PM Bennett Says US ‘Blocked’ His Attempts at a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

Bennett says the US and its Western allies decided to ‘keep striking Putin’ and not negotiate Originally published by AntiWar...

southfront.org

 

[Christopher R.]

Boris Johnson, if the Israeli PM's testimony is true, seems to be the main politician responsible for the bloodshed that has taken place in Ukraine for the past year. Even more than Biden. Obviously the European leaders have a more rational perspective.

Why? Does Johnson truly believe in the evil of Russia and the goodness of the Western civilization? Even when Trump appeared to be pro-reconcilement with Russia, Boris as Foreign Secretary was cautioning him on the need to oppose Putin. Is he just a good servant to the US deep state, or is the UK objectively more anti-Russian than the US? It seems absurd.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Boris Johnson, if the Israeli PM's testimony is true, seems to be the main politician responsible for the bloodshed that has taken place in Ukraine for the past year. Even more than Biden. Obviously the European leaders have a more rational perspective.

Why? Does Johnson truly believe in the evil of Russia and the goodness of the Western civilization? Even when Trump appeared to be pro-reconcilement with Russia, Boris as Foreign Secretary was cautioning him on the need to oppose Putin. Is he just a good servant to the US deep state, or is the UK objectively more anti-Russian than the US? It seems absurd.

Back in 2014 I was still reading guardian online regularly. The hate and spite towards everything Russia I got to read in the comment t sections from „liberal“ Brits was something else.

Johnson seems to picture himself as some sort of Churchill diadochi, so some extra level of irrationality on his part might play a role.
But in general, UK imperialistic policy always held an anti-Russian streak except when they needed it as tenporary ally in wars against other predominant rivals / a tool for „balance of power“.

If what Bennet sais is true, then Johnson and Zelensky are responsible for every killed person since April 2022

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Somewhat related to the above I read rumors that UK especially was not happy with Ukr dismissing its defence minister. He was one of their guys apparently. Who knows what Z is cooking, maybe preparing to save his head. Also Z is supposed to head to Brussels. Maybe some negotiations are in preparation now that Russia breaks through at Bakhmut and also seems to take Lyman back.

I reiterate that Ukraine is likely to start one more PR-Offensive into Zaporozhie and then will be definitely be defeated militarily beyond offensive capability.

There will be morale blows when the population gets to see that no Challenger or Leopard can break through Russia’s position, maybe then some begin to see sense

 

[rockarolla]

Polish ambition is a complex mass and individual psychopathological phenomenon inherent in Pole elites, and characterizing the foreign policy of Poland for ages. It is expressed mainly in aggressive arrogance (individual and collective), inappropriate behavior and lack of self-control. A Pole covered by the so-called "Polish arrogance" is a city street madman in the stage of exalted self-excitation.

 

[Peachy]

When the topic of price caps first came up in this thread many months ago, we thought it might be a joke. And that’s what they turned out to be.

Sanctions imposed on Russian crude oil have so far “failed completely” and new price caps could prove immaterial as well, analysts told CNBC.

The price cap “was invented by bureaucrats with finance degrees. None of them really understand oil markets,” Paul Sankey, president and lead analyst at Sankey Research, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.

“Its been a total bomb, it has failed completely.”

Sanctions on Russian crude oil have 'failed completely,' oil analyst says

Sanctions imposed on Russian crude oil have so far have "failed completely" and new price caps could prove immaterial as well, analysts told CNBC.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Peachy]

Polish ambition is a complex mass and individual psychopathological phenomenon inherent in Pole elites, and characterizing the foreign policy of Poland for ages. It is expressed mainly in aggressive arrogance (individual and collective), inappropriate behavior and lack of self-control. A Pole covered by the so-called "Polish arrogance" is a city street madman in the stage of exalted self-excitation.

Like when they sent the first fake Dmitry to claim the Russian throne?

The most infamous FAKE tsars in Russian history

These people tried to reach the Russian throne by posing as Tsar’s murdered sons who were miraculously saved. One of them even managed to become Tsar...

www.rbth.com

 

[Peachy]

“Crude oil could soon swing into a deficit that will make next year a difficult one, Goldman Sachs said, as spare production capacity dwindles and underinvestment threatens future supply.

Speaking on the sidelines of an event in Saudi Arabia, Goldman’s top commodity analyst Jeffrey Currie said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that the industry is not spending enough to secure future production and that spare capacity globally is declining.

This could tip the oil market into a serious supply problem next year, but the price for a barrel of Brent could top $100 before then.”

Goldman Sachs Warns Of An Imminent Oil Supply Shortage | OilPrice.com

Goldman Sachs believes an oil supply shortage is looming due to underinvestment, with oil prices set to break $100

oilprice.com

 

[Peachy]

Kyiv floating a Korean scenario

Kiev inching closer to conceding defeat – ex-Russian president

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev says Kiev is moving towards accepting territorial losses

www.rt.com

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Shoigu himself Relcaps Ukranian losses for month of January: 6.500

Interesting figure. Given that January was very intense around Bakhmut, one might deduct the previous month from that.

It seems KIAs of >100.000 is too far fetched

 

[Perry Staltic]

The source of the cancer currently destroying Ukraine. Russia's denazification of Ukraine is their attempt to remedy Krushchev's unfortunate mistakes.

The Soviet Union fought against the followers of a convicted terrorist and Nazi German collaborator Stepan Bandera in western Ukraine—first during World War II and then as an insurgency. As a result, many were tried and incarcerated in Kazakhstan, the Arctic Circle, and the Urals. Yet in 1955, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev pardoned and released Banderites in the tens of thousands. Why did this mass-scale amnesty happen, and what long-term consequences did it have?
...
The exact numbers of pardoned Banderites and other collaborators are difficult to determine. According to some estimates, approximately 100,000 Nazi collaborators were imprisoned by 1955. 50,000 were released that year. The same number was freed in 1960.
...
Finally, some historians like Yuri Yemeliianov, argue that Khrushchev’s western Ukrainian wife also influenced the pardons behind the scenes. She was from Kholmshchyna, the historically Polish-controlled Chełm Land. Khrushchev himself was an ethnic Russian but lived in Donbass, later attached to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, starting from his teens. In 1944, Khrushchev argued that Kholmshchyna must be returned presumably under the influence of his wife. Yemeliianov compares the latter to Khrushchev’s “gift” of Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954. The transfer of Crimea from the Russian to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic was done officially for economic and geographic reasons. Unofficially, it was meant to mark 300 years since the Russo-Ukrainian reunion through the Pereyaslav Agreement and as a personal gift to his wife.

Be that as it may, it appears that Khrushchev believed that these tens of thousands of Banderites would be integrated into society without much effort, while the majority of the population in western Ukraine would not be influenced by them ideologically. Some estimates reveal that in just two decades, up to a third of those released (or their family members) ended up working in local or regional governments in western Ukraine. In light of the gradual rehabilitation of Bandera as a national “hero” in post-Soviet Ukraine, it is clear that Khrushchev set a ticking time bomb with his mass pardon by failing to adequately address the question of ideological rehabilitation.

Why did Soviet Leader Khrushchev Pardon Thousands of Ukrainian Banderites in the 1950s?

The Soviet Union fought against the followers of a convicted terrorist and Nazi German collaborator Stepan Bandera in western Ukraine—first during World War II and then as an insurgency. As a resul…

ninabyzantina.com

 

[Perry Staltic]

The Biden administration as well as Pentagon know that Ukraine’s army is not able to hold the current defense line in its east part. The big fear is that the Ukrainian army will totally collapse and run away, when the frontline is breached in Ugledar, Bakhmut, Seversk and Krasny-Liman.

Russia’s winter offensive is going in full speed but in another way than western “experts” assumed. No “Big Arrows” so far but slowly accelerating pressure along the whole frontline and when break-points emerge, they will be utilized immediately throwing more reserves in those places from back-areas. Due to autumn mobilizations and very low KIA-rate, Russia has plenty of trained reserves available.

The reason for this kind of warfare is the fact that western spy satellites follow the ground situation 24/7 covering the whole theatre of operations. Russia fully knows and understands that and therefore hide their military operations to the latest possible point, thus holding a surprise moment. However, 1-2 massive, “Big Arrow” Russian offensives are probable during February-April period.

A new wave of activity is expected for the Russian side during February. The recent changes in the command of the operation appear to have been carefully planned in order to elevate the combat to a new level and several of Moscow’s strategic objectives may soon be achieved, radically changing the course of the conflict. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was promoted to the position of Commander of the Joint Forces of the Russian Federation in the Special Military Operation Zone. Gerasimov’s arrival to power seems to have been a move towards the final stage of the special military operation.

Obviously, a major offensive (Big Arrow) is being prepared for February with the probable aims: 1) Reaching the borders of the regions recently reintegrated into the Russian Federation, pacifying the new oblasts. 2) capturing Nikolaev, Odessa, as well as the entire Black Sea coast, reaching Transnistria. 3) seizing/blocking Kiev, forcing a political capitulation of the Zelensky regime until early March.

The territory of Belarus will become the main springboard for the upcoming strike. In parallel to Belarus, Zaporozhye and Lugansk are also key zones for the Russian strategy. It is expected that massive attacks will come from these regions during the offensive, destroying enemy units in a short period of time which will allow a rapid Russian advance on the battlefield, reaching the zones listed in the above-mentioned objectives. For the offensive to be successful, Russian forces will focus on blocking all enemy’s supply lines. The main route of arrival of supplies to Ukraine is the border with Poland, where there is the transit of NATO’s ammunition and military equipment.

Some days ago, Washington announced preparing a new package of military aid worth $2.2 billion that is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time. Soon thereafter, in a televised interview, Sergei Lavrov said an important principle of policy: “We’re now seeking to push back Ukrainian army artillery to a distance that will not pose a threat to our territories. The greater the range of the weapons supplied to the Kiev regime, the more we will have to push them back from territories which are part of our country.”

Endgame is going in Ukraine crisis - Great power relations

endgame is going in Ukraine crisis, February 2023

greatpowerrelations.com

 

[Peachy]

The source of the cancer currently destroying Ukraine. Russia's denazification of Ukraine is their attempt to remedy Krushchev's unfortunate mistakes.

Why did Soviet Leader Khrushchev Pardon Thousands of Ukrainian Banderites in the 1950s?

The Soviet Union fought against the followers of a convicted terrorist and Nazi German collaborator Stepan Bandera in western Ukraine—first during World War II and then as an insurgency. As a resul…

ninabyzantina.com

This guy - hit the bottle way too hard. His daughter Nina Kruscheva is a piece of work too (case in point).

 

[Hugh Johnson]

Shoigu himself Relcaps Ukranian losses for month of January: 6.500

Interesting figure. Given that January was very intense around Bakhmut, one might deduct the previous month from that.

It seems KIAs of >100.000 is too far fetched

I feel like it's nonsense. UA started with over 800k trained troops and has spent months throwing untrained conscripts to the front.

Martyanov has discussed that Russia undercount enemy losses. Apparently they only count the kills they can confirm.

So artillery mulching an infantry squad in a building does not even count.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

Endgame is going in Ukraine crisis - Great power relations

endgame is going in Ukraine crisis, February 2023

greatpowerrelations.com

This would be a coherent strategic approach. Something similar I predicted a few posts above.
Also Col. McGregor, who I find not too reliable, has corrected his big arrow predictions to something similar.

Big pushes come with big losses and huge requirements of logistics and so forth. Blitzkrieg work either in the beginning of a war or never (except after positions are crushing before defeat)

And every war has its own theme so to speak. It takes a while before the picture gets clear after everything is factored in; Situation of the opponents, terrain, climate, technology and so forth. I find it probable that Russia now devised a viable approach and the loss numbers speak for it.

Also Ukraine is the likelier side to give up feasible approaches for fanatical or propaganda reasons.

I still speculate:

1.)
Russia will conquer the 4 oblasts. Not least for domestic reasons so the leadership can save face and at the very minimum say: goals achieved. But I think Russia will remain east of Dnjepr for the Time being in Kherson and Zaporishija oblasts.

2,)
Depending on Ukraine’s procedure, Russia will remain flexible but primarily in the defense after that stage. Either after the capture of the oblasts negotiations begin (which I assume Russia will offer at that point) -
But likely Ukraine won’t agree to talks.

We might then see some offensive efforts by Ukraine with all their concentrated remains regulars and western equipment.
Which would be a best case scenario for Russia if they remain in fortified positions.

How Russia will eventually force the end of the war can’t be told at the moment.

Blockading Kiev maybe, for political reasons.

Go further towards Dnjepr maybe.

Seizing Charkov.

Then many speculate Odessa -> Transnistria. That’s very risky in my opinion. Very short terrain, close to enemy’s deepest supply lines. Highly suspectible to harassing attacks.

But you can see a tendency in the political sphere that Moldavia becomes another hotbed of anti-Russian activity. So maybe going to travsnistria now is less costly then in a few years.


What’s the attack helicopter Situation of Russia? Kamovs had some very impressive results in the conflict but Russia also lost many already. Have Hinds seen much action at all? Black Sharks feasting on leopards would be an interesting sight

 

[Perry Staltic]

What’s the attack helicopter Situation of Russia? Kamovs had some very impressive results in the conflict but Russia also lost many already. Have Hinds seen much action at all? Black Sharks feasting on leopards would be an interesting sight

Hinds are used, but mostly KA-52s. Saw a video the other day of one being hit, but the pilots were saved because of the ejection pod. Only chopper in the world with one.

 

[Perry Staltic]

Gonzo, our man in Kharkiv. Aerial drone factory hit


View: https://twitter.com/GonzaloLira1968/status/1623212553710043138

 

[HighT]

There were negotiations in Israel back in May 2022 where Zelenski was willing to sign peace and accept all russian requirments. But he was not allowed to do so by brits and americans. So everybody knows it, but now it comes officialy.