Ukraine Crisis

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LeeLemonoil

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Fairly intense targeting of Zaporishija NPP recently. Ukraine manageing to capture it would be another massive PR blow.
Detailed analysis on how Surovikin is systematically knocking out Ukraine’s capabilities. Lots of good video too.


View: https://youtu.be/CYWyStCtaRI


Haven’t watched it yet. But: knocking out capabilities by cruise missiles needs to be followed up by offensive operations at some point. The supply to UAF by the west is still massive.

One possibility is that Russia will not go offensive anymore and is digging in. Try to make Ukraine / western handlers accept that a shattered infrastructure and impenetrable Russian defenses got to mean peacef.

To save face Putin would then need to conquer complete Donetsk oblast, as stated numerous times publicly.
And probably get Kherson back, Russian territory. But the latter might be lost in negotiations.

Major Russian offensives towards Odessa must come during the next year or never.
 

Peachy

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Haven’t watched it yet. But: knocking out capabilities by cruise missiles needs to be followed up by offensive operations at some point. The supply to UAF by the west is still massive.
He talks about how these actions prepare for the offensive by hampering their air defense & logistics. He also talks about 500K soldiers being trapped east of the Dnieper if they blow the bridges. I hadn’t realized there were that many. Is that true?

I shared mainly for the level of detail he went into about the infrastructure strikes and drone strategy and how it fits into the big picture.

One possibility is that Russia will not go offensive anymore and is digging in. Try to make Ukraine / western handlers accept that a shattered infrastructure and impenetrable Russian defenses got to mean peace
I’m hoping!! They have to see the writing on the wall. Does Russia actually have to carry through these actions? Maybe so, since no one seems to care about Ukraine except Russia.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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He also talks about 500K soldiers being trapped east of the Dnieper if they blow the bridges. I hadn’t realized there were that many. Is that true?
I don’t know. East of Dnjepr? Seems a lot but in total probably yes.

Through mouth to mouth I’ve recently heard an assessment of KIAs of both side that circulated within the German officer corps:

Roughly: 10k KIA Russia. 50k KIA Ukraine.

I can’t tell how legit any of these rumors / assessments are but these are figures that match my personal feeling (read: a bias) and is congruent with the casualties from the Donbas offensive from month ago and then a decline of theses daily figures.

So if Ukraine lost maybe 100k personell able to fight due to death or incapacitating wounding then they likely still have more than 500k potential troopers left.
 

rockarolla

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Peachy

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A peon was fired for the AP story claiming a Russian missile struck Poland. Not the editors, or the person who hires the editors, just little-old James LaPorta

From Coffee & Covid:

Last Tuesday the AP broke a story, written by investigative reporter James Laporta, that “a senior U.S. intelligence official” had reported that “Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people.” The story went viral — as it should have, given the implications — but was abruptly yanked off the internet the very next day.

Instead, Laporta’s story was replaced with an editor’s note saying the “senior U.S. intelligence official” was wrong, and that “subsequent reporting showed that the missiles were … most likely fired by Ukraine[.]”

So, never mind.

Yesterday, the AP fired Mr. Laporta. The Daily Beast reached out to the AP for a comment, but got back only a generalized response referring to the agency’s rules over the use of anonymous sources. Nor would the AP say who edited Laporta’s story, or whether that person was also disciplined.
 

Perry Staltic

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story went viral — as it should have, given the implications — but was abruptly yanked off the internet the very next day.

An example why OSINT is wonderful. I bet Zelensky et all are cursing the person who took the pictures of the missile debris and posted them online. Without those photos their false flag narrative would have found legs instead of having them knocked out from under them within a day.
 
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Peachy

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An example why OSINT is wonderful. I bet Zelensky et all are cursing the person who took the pictures of the missile debris and posted them online. Without those photos their false flag narrative would have found legs instead of having them knocked out from under them within a day.
OSINT is our only hope. I remember there being a brief uproar in the pro-Ukraine circles about the irresponsibility of the person who released those pictures “prematurely”.
 

Perry Staltic

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