Ukraine Crisis

Peachy

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The latter would be a highly risky proceeding.
Also, where are the rest of the regular Russian ground forces?

Wouldn’t it be prudent by now to engage most of the pros and have the draftees and reservists full vacancs in the domestic and border garrisons. Apart from those that are required to train them
Maybe, maybe not. Russia seems to be acting with patience and a bigger-picture view. I guess we’ll see how things happen in the next few weeks.
 

rockarolla

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:lol:
 

Perry Staltic

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Whatever the case, I think things are about to change dramatically and rather quickly.

It does look and seem like something significant is imminent. Numerous countries are telling their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately
 

Perry Staltic

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Peachy

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It does look and seem like something significant is imminent. Numerous countries are telling their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately
Oh I hadn’t heard that. I’d certainly be leaving of my own accord! I did hear countries are telling their citizens to leave Russia - for show.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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„Ukraine is applying for NATO membership in an accelerated manner, Zelensky's office reports. Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia for as long as Putin is the president“
- Zelensky

Ok, the hidden puppet masters have decided for keeping this war going and entangle Russia in it until it implodes. Another early prediction seemingly fulfilling.
They also put pressure on Putin domestically with this condition, a clever move since everytime the war will seem going badly for Russia there will be some infighting in Russia about Putin.

And also: Putin‘s fate as Russian leader now definitely dependent and connected to the outcome here.

Higher stakes after higher stakes.
Up until today I never really feared that nuclear escalation is really an option for either side. This certainty is gone on my part and it doesn’t feel nice.
Completely unsure about Russia’s further goals and plans, they will surely try to use wintertime for preparations and planning, so does the other camp.

What will China do?
 
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LeeLemonoil

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It does look and seem like something significant is imminent. Numerous countries are telling their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately
Don’t think anything specific or special is the Reason for this repeated and renewed call. It’s in reaction to the mobilization.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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A Full transcript of Putins speech is necessary. So many talking points that seems like „fanservice“, catering to a certain contrarian population. He even talks about western satanism.

It’s crazy. Even this speech can be squared with the 3 scenarios. If this is genuine then Putin more or less declared total war.

If this is a scheme then the schemers too declared total resetting.
 

Perry Staltic

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Russia reportedly deploying 120k troops to Belarus. Belarus said it will match with 100k and is obligated to support Russia. It's either a buildup in anticipation of a NATO invasion from Poland, or prep for an invasion into Ukraine from the north. IMO it would be an epic move with that size force to blitz through soft central Ukraine to cut supply routes to the east, link up with the ammo depot in Transnistria and move on Odessa. Possibly couple it with a sea invasion into south Odessa oblast and an assault on Nikolaev. Ukraine wouldn't know what to do. They need to do something like that to totally shift the momentum in their favor. This slow grind BS is just dumb.


View: https://twitter.com/Navsteva/status/1575881118653747201
 

rockarolla

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NATO somehow performed very weakly today.

Probably too scared that Moscow had already re-equipped some of the Iskanders with nuclear heads.

1664558012605.png
 

rockarolla

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A Full transcript of Putins speech is necessary. So many talking points that seems like „fanservice“, catering to a certain contrarian population. He even talks about western satanism.

It’s crazy. Even this speech can be squared with the 3 scenarios. If this is genuine then Putin more or less declared total war.

If this is a scheme then the schemers too declared total resetting.

He said that Germany is still occupied by US.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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Russia reportedly deploying 120k troops to Belarus. Belarus said it will match with 100k and is obligated to support Russia. It's either a buildup in anticipation of a NATO invasion from Poland, or prep for an invasion into Ukraine from the north. IMO it would be an epic move with that size force to blitz through soft central Ukraine to cut supply routes to the east, link up with the ammo depot in Transnistria and move on Odessa. Possibly couple it with a sea invasion into south Odessa oblast and an assault on Nikolaev. Ukraine wouldn't know what to do. They need to do something like that to totally shift the momentum in their favor. This slow grind BS is just dumb.


View: https://twitter.com/Navsteva/status/1575881118653747201

Would at least be finally a nice surprise move on Russian side and lukaschenko playing his role very well so far. Like you said, Russia needs to cut off supplies close to west Ukrainian borders

We‘ll see if anything of that scope ever happens. Is autumn/winter not a difficult season for such an operation. They’d need all their Air Force power for it too, which is held in reserve to large extents still

Well and if some laymen can anticipate it so would western military and intel by now. So it would be an all or nothing move.

If Poland would invade Belarus I‘m gonna take iodine
 
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Peachy

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This convoy shelling is making my blood boil. Very few interviews coming out from the survivors in line despite a Reuter’s reporter being there. I guess Kyiv’s story about the cars headed there to bring relatives to the “free part of Ukraine” don’t hold. Shocker.

“A reporter with the Reuters news agency saw bodies lying on the ground or still in vehicles at the city’s sprawling Orekhovo car market. A blast had left a crater in the ground near two lines of vehicles full of blankets and suitcases, the reporter said.”

But the only interview I’ve heard is with a woman who says she was going home to Mariupol. (In another article.)

Really just a long line of “collaborators” conveniently in one place.

 

Perry Staltic

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We‘ll see if anything of that scope ever happens. Is autumn/winter not a difficult season for such an operation. They’d need all their Air Force power for it too, which is held in reserve to large extents still

The ground will be frozen, so easy to maneuver, but really all Russia would have to do is stay on the roads and move as quickly as possible to Transnistria where there is more ammo than they need. Unopposed they could be there in 24 hours. I don't think there is much along the way able to stop them.
 

Perry Staltic

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I’m trying to figure out another possible reason for Germany’s craziness. If anyone knows of one, please tell!

Progressivism is a self-destructive paradigm. Once it evolves completely the host has no other option but to destroy itself.
 
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LeeLemonoil

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He said that Germany is still occupied by US.
That’s an old talking point. Look at Germany and Japan, both defeated major power where the US managed to coopt remaining elites and established new elite networks depending on them.

85% though of Germans wouldn’t feel they are occupated and it isn’t black and white really

I’m trying to figure out another possible reason for Germany’s craziness. If anyone knows of one, please tell!
I know them all. Too much to expand on it right now. But Russians shouldn’t put there hopes on Germany turning because of energy prices and economic fallout. It won’t. It’s sad because Germany and Russia would, as many times before make for natural allies, all of Europe benefiting from it, including Poland. But it’s not happening.
 
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