The global financial system is likely insolvent

[cs3000]

Jeff snider is informed on this stuff


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjBYhcX5A_I



he talks about deflationary forces, and how the fed has much less impact on the economy than people think.
(they don't actually print spendable money for example)

the eurodollar curve is very inverted (which is where the giant mega money signals for deflation / hedges)


my understanding is debt is different since 2007. extremes of risk-on mindset back then gave rise to perception that mortgage backed securities were reliable instruments to back debt.
when they went south the collateral went to ***t and everyone had to scurry to back their debt or defaulted on it.
now debt is collateralized with only short term treasuries. much more reliable and liquid. but doesnt stop debt contractions still

jeff says that was just the end straw that broke the camel, the real structural issue being a systemic global shortage of dollars


the difference in downturns today is since covid unprecedented stimulus direct to consumers/businesses was established.
that exists as a short term panic button to interrupt the down cycles when the pressure is on government to step in. so likely a lot more inflation-deflation volatility than past cycles from here on

 

[David PS]

Jeff snider is informed on this stuff


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjBYhcX5A_I



he talks about deflationary forces, and how the fed has much less impact on the economy than people think.
(they don't actually print spendable money for example)

the eurodollar curve is very inverted (which is where the giant mega money signals for deflation / hedges)


my understanding is debt is different since 2007. extremes of risk-on mindset back then gave rise to perception that mortgage backed securities were reliable instruments to back debt.
when they went south the collateral went to ***t and everyone had to scurry to back their debt or defaulted on it.
now debt is collateralized with only short term treasuries. much more reliable and liquid. but doesnt stop debt contractions still

jeff says that was just the end straw that broke the camel, the real structural issue being a systemic global shortage of dollars


the difference in downturns today is with covid unprecedented stimulus direct to consumers/businesses was established.
that exists as a short term panic button to interrupt the down cycles when the pressure is on government to step in. so likely a lot more inflation-deflation volatility than past cycles from here on

Thanks, here is another analysis. Basically, worldwide debt and limited access to oil is going to shatter the economies of the world.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2VIm_aRWPo

 

[Regina]

The Missing Money – The Missing Money

missingmoney.solari.com

 

[AlaskaJono]

@Regina
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/01/add-4281-hedge-fund-clients-to-what-makes-jpmorgan-chase-the-riskiest-mega-bank-in-the-u-s/
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1601793189286801408
Hi -The first link just a random recent one from wallstreet on parade.... and shows how many Trillions $$$ was printed from Sept, 2019- Dec. 31, 2019!!!
I have read recently numbers of anywhere from 8 to 16 Trillion $$$ official Covid Relief - US only... who can say really how much. Mind Blasting!

Also the second link up ^ there, ,,,,, from investopedia: "The Bank for International Settlements says there could be as much as $80 trillion of off-balance sheet debt in the foreign exchange market, held by non-US institutions."

They seem to be laying down the foundations of a Narrative so Big, that yeah, that is the thing we can't control, Non-US Banks secret money... . Yeah right.

I can't believe the monstrous financial sh@tfuckery hasn't collapsed yet. Lotsa dollars in worldwide circulation... . I read in the last 7 days somewhere that the US/Western financial system is basically a Ponzi scheme. So when the oil biz starts to utilize Non-USD, as some speculate is already happening, then the USD globally will become even less valuable, and cause a spiralling downwards. How fast we do not know.

I am no expert on any of this financial stuff but... I try. And I know when the smart men and women, Alex Krainer, John Titus, CAF, Tom Luongo, MoneyCircus, etc..., start to explain to the rest of us FOR FREE (mostly) what the hell is going down; The (usual) plan is and has been initiated= the Bigs get Bigger, and the little guy gets shafted. Again.

 

[Peatful]

The Titanic and the Federal Reserve Act.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAPYSeOGoD8

This is great Regina

Less than 1/2 way through

But thanks for posting

Recommending to others

 

[Alpha]

The first link just a random recent one from wallstreet on parade.... and shows how many Trillions $$$ was printed from Sept, 2019- Dec. 31, 2019!!!
I have read recently numbers of anywhere from 8 to 16 Trillion $$$ official Covid Relief - US only... who can say really how much. Mind Blasting!

Breaking down science papers isn't enough it seems, I have to breakdown finance and economics as well.

Money isn't "printed" if you are referring to Quantiative easing. It's outside of circulation.

Also the second link up ^ there, ,,,,, from investopedia: "The Bank for International Settlements says there could be as much as $80 trillion of off-balance sheet debt in the foreign exchange market, held by non-US institutions."

That's false. They are not debt obligations, they are contingent liabilities, hence why they are off-balance sheet. Its how the majority of large financial or real money institutions exchange currency, through FX swaps.

I can't believe the monstrous financial sh@tfuckery hasn't collapsed yet. Lotsa dollars in worldwide circulation... . I read in the last 7 days somewhere that the US/Western financial system is basically a Ponzi scheme. So when the oil biz starts to utilize Non-USD, as some speculate is already happening, then the USD globally will become even less valuable, and cause a spiralling downwards. How fast we do not know.

There is no Ponzi scheme. Its called fractional reserve banking, and it has worked for over 70 years so far, longer than any financial system in history.

The USD will not "spiral" downwards because the US is still the strongest economy in the world and the global military superpower, that's what gives dollar its value. Oil is irrelevant, the US is now the biggest producer for oil. The concept of Petro-dollar is from the 80s, we live in a different world now. Oil won't even be relevant in a decade or two.

 

[AlaskaJono]

Breaking down science papers isn't enough it seems, I have to breakdown finance and economics as well.

You are welcome or not to breakdown whatever you want to.

Read/Listen to Richard Werner is my advice. Fractional Banking is Ponzi. Period.

Dollar purchasing power has already devalued by 20-25% since 2020. Real world, not the msm numbers. QE is not money printing, I know, but it 'circulates' directly FED/BlackRock and the Big Banks to PURCHASE assets like stocks, real estate, gold, etc.. .
You have an opinion, and so do I.
So does Martin Armstrong, Catherine Austin Fitts, John Titus, Moneycircus, Pam Martens and Russ Martens. Worth reading even if you disagree.

The Oligarchy (Atlantacists) and their hegemony will be declining rapidly, therefore the downward spiral of the economy/political mayhem, and the strength of the Fiat USD will follow. It is a natural cycle.

And yes, US produces oil. Lately a lot of it, just surpassing Russia's production by about 10%. Good day to you.

United States	11.6M	2021-12-01
Russia	10.5M	2021-11-01
Saudi Arabia	10.2M	2022-02-01
Canada	4.7M	2021-11-01
Iraq	4.3M	2022-02-01
China	4M	2021-11-01
United Arab Emirates	3M	2022-02-01
Brazil	2.9M	2021-11-01
Kuwait	2.6M	2022-02-01
Iran	2.5M	2022-02-01
Kazakhstan	1.9M	2021-11-01
Norway	1.7M	2021-11-01
Mexico	1.7M	2021-11-01

 

[revenant]

There is no Ponzi scheme. Its called fractional reserve banking, and it has worked for over 70 years so far, longer than any financial system in history.

The US dollar has lost over 96% of its value since 1913. Do you call that "working"? I'd say gold has worked for much longer.

 

[Alpha]

The US dollar has lost over 96% of its value since 1913. Do you call that "working"? I'd say gold has worked for much longer.

Yes, it worked with great success. You don't understand how finance and economics work. You are the type of person who would say Netflix is more expensive than Apple because the stock price is $486 vs $192. That's exactly the same thing you are saying.

The average person today is 4x as wealthy as was in 1913. In fact, we are in a decade in history where the average person is extremely wealthy compared to history. The average person today would be in the top 0.1% of wealth a hundred years ago.

If you are going to make these straw man points that are entirely irrelevant with no cohesive thought placed behind them, I can't have a discussion further.

 

[revenant]

What does the wealth of the average person have to do with fractional reserve banking? The average person would be even wealthier without fractional reserve banking.

You are the type of person to say "thank you sir, may I have another" after the government beats you with a stick.

 

[Peater]

In fact, we are in a decade in history where the average person is extremely wealthy compared to history. The average person today would be in the top 0.1% of wealth a hundred years ago.

It turns out debt is indeed wealth.

 

[Alpha]

What does the wealth of the average person have to do with fractional reserve banking?

Literally everything, it is the predominant financial system globally.

The average person would be even wealthier without fractional reserve banking.

There is zero evidence of that. Wealth quadrupled in a hundred years, that magnitude was never achieved before in history before modern fractional reserve banking.

You have a long way to go to proving that without making empty statements.

You are the type of person to say "thank you sir, may I have another" after the government beats you with a stick.

Oh I see who I'm dealing with here, a sour conspiracy theorist who blames the government for all his personal shortcomings.

 

[Alpha]

It turns out debt is indeed wealth.

Yes it is. If it wasn't, then all wealth had to be accumulated in absence of a society, like building your own house, manufacturing your own smartphone in the bedroom, growing your own food in the garden.

If you don't want to do all these things, then you have to be in debt to the people who can do these things for you, and in turn be indebted to do some other task that you specificalize in to fund them in exchange.

But as usual, you will have the average person come out of the woodwork and say "oh look how much debt the government is taking, the system is failing!", that was the case since the end of world war 2 people calling for the financial collapse, and still the case today, but I'm not holding my breath until they realize debt is wealth, debt is money.

 

[Peater]

Yes it is. If it wasn't, then all wealth had to be accumulated in absence of a society, like building your own house, manufacturing your own smartphone in the bedroom, growing your own food in the garden.

If you don't want to do all these things, then you have to be in debt to the people who can do these things for you, and in turn be indebted to do some other task that you specificalize in to fund them in exchange.

But as usual, you will have the average person come out of the woodwork and say "oh look how much debt the government is taking, the system is failing!", that was the case since the end of world war 2 people calling for the financial collapse, and still the case today, but I'm not holding my breath until they realize debt is wealth, debt is money.

Praise be to the currency lenders and their inherently inflationary system!

Must be great to get the first round when they issue currency, not so great for the lower orders once it's "Trickled down" (Like piss down yer leg!) and lost its purchasing power.

Trickle-down economics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[revenant]

Literally everything, it is the predominant financial system globally.



There is zero evidence of that. Wealth quadrupled in a hundred years, that magnitude was never achieved before in history before modern fractional reserve banking.

You have a long way to go to proving that without making empty statements.



Oh I see who I'm dealing with here, a sour conspiracy theorist who blames the government for all his personal shortcomings.

I could argue similarly that cancer rites have been going up steadily for a 100 years, so we must thank cancer for wealth.

Anyone with half a brain can see that conjuring money from thin air does not produce wealth.

I see I'm dealing with a Redditor here.

 

[Alpha]

I could argue similarly that cancer rites have been going up steadily for a 100 years, so we must thank cancer for wealth.

Now you are moving goalposts. We are talking about causation, not correlation. Wealth creation and the financial system are both correlated and causal. Cancer is a spurious correlation with no evidence of a mechanistic explanation. Using reductionist faulty analogies part and parcel of your logical fallacy toolbox is unsurprising.

Anyone with half a brain can see that conjuring money from thin air does not produce wealth.

You're right, why don't you throw away the smartphone or laptop you are using to write that comment since it was produced by thin-air money, and give me all the fiat currency you have to my bank account since they are worth nothing.

DM me for details.

 

[Peater]

since it was produced by thin-air money

How did the thin air money produce it?

 

[ThinPicking]

Oh I see who I'm dealing with here, a sour conspiracy theorist who blames the government for all his personal shortcomings.

You're busy elsewhere trying to blame sugar for yours. It's laughable.

Personally I'm of the well read opinion that fractional reserve banking could be a stroke of genius, if commercial banks were legislatively bound to create their own reserves in the first instance, set their own base rates and underwriting standards. No central banks at all. No socialisation of losses and no corporate labels to hide behind. Bank managers would do their jobs regionally and fear their heads being piked. Meanwhile it would be depositors responsibility to pay attention or lose their loot.

In such a paradigm there could be no Keynesian expansion and the scope of government would be limited by their ability to convince an electorate to fund it. No real work, no real gains. Money would be created and destroyed locally in line with demand and labour. The money supply would be a distributed concern. "Growth" would be naturally limited.

The USD will not "spiral" downwards because the US is still the strongest economy in the world and the global military superpower, that's what gives dollar its value. Oil is irrelevant, the US is now the biggest producer for oil. The concept of Petro-dollar is from the 80s, we live in a different world now. Oil won't even be relevant in a decade or two.

You missed a spot. A loan contract is a futures contract of sorts. Money is (or was) created on the understanding there will (or would) be labour in the future to earn it back and destroy the principal, removing it from circulation. All energy sources including oil act as a lens with respect to labour. You can do more work operating a machine than you can with your hands. Minus the labour required to extract the energy, refine it, distribute it and build machines to use it.

The Keynesian end of all fiat currencies, including the USD absolutely will spiral downwards without one of the following. A hybrid helicopter drop and debt jubilee, combined with a dismantling of central banks and write down of their balance sheets. Or another manufactured crisis, rescindment of liberty and a ramp in the force of law. Just like the one you were advocating for in 2020. Happy new year "Alpha".

 

[Peater]

Money is (or was) created on the understanding there will (or would) be labour in the future to earn it back and destroy the principal, removing it from circulation.

With the interest charged being a claim to future labour. The system then becomes reliant on ever more credit creation, or you get a deflationary collapse - but they never say why deflation being the natural order of things in a fully-backed system, would be such a bad thing....funny that.

 

[Alpha]

You're busy elsewhere trying to blame sugar for yours. It's laughable.

I'm not trying to blame sugar, I'm presenting the scientific literature. How you arrived at the conclusion that sugars evident detrimental effects in longitudinal studies is a personal vendetta will remain one of life's big mysteries.

Personally I'm of the well read opinion that fractional reserve banking could be a stroke of genius, if commercial banks were legislatively bound to create their own reserves in the first instance, set their own base rates and underwriting standards. No central banks at all. No socialisation of losses and no corporate labels to hide behind. Bank managers would do their jobs regionally and fear their heads being piked. Meanwhile it would be depositors responsibility to pay attention or lose their loot.

Create their own reserves is word-salad. Fiat currency is legal tender regulated and funded by a central monetary authority towards a fiscal entity. One that in turn keeps reserve requirements to create fractional reserve banking in a centralized system.

In such a paradigm there could be no Keynesian expansion and the scope of government would be limited by their ability to convince an electorate to fund it.

Keynesian expansion is also word-salad. I will make an educated guess and assume you mean fiscal expansion. Fiscal expansion is inherent in the creation of fractional reserve, excluding the roles of public policy in national infrastructure, ministerial funding, military spending, and job creation, a perpetual fiscal surplus is not sustainable and drives aggregate demand down to zero, effectively an authoritarian goverment that does nothing but collect taxes providing citizens nothing but the right to exist.

No real work, no real gains. Money would be created and destroyed locally in line with demand and labour. The money supply would be a distributed concern. "Growth" would be naturally limited.

That's a barter exchange society that only works in tribal settings thousands of years ago, not a capitalistic one in a world of open-economy globalisation.

You missed a spot. A loan contract is a futures contract of sorts. Money is (or was) created on the understanding there will (or would) be labour in the future to earn it back and destroy the principal, removing it from circulation.

A loan contract is not a futures contract. Loans are obligations to pay back debt with interest. Futures are obligations backed by assets to purchase at a predetermined date. Money is not created on the understanding that there will be labor in the future that earns it, that is a very simplistic view. Rather what you meant to say is credit is created with a promise that it will be either repaid back in the case of no interest, or create marginal production, labor, goods, or services, backed by more credit to repay it back.

All energy sources including oil act as a lens with respect to labour. You can do more work operating a machine than you can with your hands. Minus the labour required to extract the energy, refine it, distribute it and build machines to use it.

You are referring to capital and productivity factors, not oil or energy sources, that's how wealth is created over time.

The Keynesian end of all fiat currencies, including the USD absolutely will spiral downwards without one of the following. A hybrid helicopter drop and debt jubilee, combined with a dismantling of central banks and write down of their balance sheets. Or another manufactured crisis, rescindment of liberty and a ramp in the force of law.

All evidence and historical contexts points to that fiat currency and the "USD" will not spiral downwards. The economy is as strong as its ever been mostly thanks to the monetary interventions that would not be possible without fractional reserve banking and monetary policy regulations. The current financial system in theory and practice can be sustained with great success on wealth creation in perpetuity. Will there be booms and busts characteristic of credit formation? Absolutely. Will the entire system breakdown because of it? Absolutely not.

Just like the one you were advocating for in 2020. Happy new year "Alpha".

Happy new year to you too. Thanks for stopping by.