The global financial system is likely insolvent

[Peater]

All evidence and historical contexts points to that fiat currency and the "USD" will not spiral downwards. The economy is as strong as its ever been mostly thanks to the monetary interventions that would not be possible without fractional reserve banking and monetary policy regulations. The current financial system in theory and practice can be sustained with great success on wealth creation in perpetuity.

LMAO

 

[ThinPicking]

I'm presenting the scientific literature.

You're presenting dogma in attempt to validate it for yourself. And doing an awful job.

word-salad

This is your modus. Waffle .

not a capitalistic one

This isn't capitalism. It's corporatism. No amount of waffle will occlude that fact.

The economy is as strong as its ever been mostly thanks to the monetary interventions that would not be possible without fractional reserve banking and monetary policy regulations.

You're delusional. "Flatten the curve" right "Alpha".

 

[Alpha]

You're presenting dogma in attempt to validate it for yourself. And doing an awful job.

Yes I'm presenting dogma from Nature and Cell. Thanks for stopping by.

This isn't capitalism. It's corporatism. No amount of waffle will occlude that fact.

Uh-huh. Thanks for stopping by.

You're delusional. "Flatten the curve" right "Alpha".

Yes flatten the curve to distribute the number of cases across time and allow healthcare capacity to absorb them sufficiently to increase the probability they get the proper medical care and improve survivability, rather than overwhelm the system and have more deaths as a consequence.

Thanks for stopping by.

 

[Peater]

Thanks for stopping by.

Thanks for stopping by.

Thanks for stopping by.

Are you broken?

 

[revenant]

"The economy is as strong as its ever been"

Sure it is. That's why the number of homeless people is at its highest, while in the 60's people could afford to buy a house working a blue collar job.

 

[Alpha]

"The economy is as strong as its ever been"

Sure it is. That's why the number of homeless people is at its highest

Zero evidence of that.

While in the 60's people could afford to buy a house working a blue collar job.

Zero evidence of that.

 

[Peater]

while in the 60's people could afford to buy a house working a blue collar job.

Zero evidence of that.

Well of course, with a chart that only goes to 1981.

 

[LLight]

Yes flatten the curve to distribute the number of cases across time and allow healthcare capacity to absorb them sufficiently to increase the probability they get the proper medical care and improve survivability, rather than overwhelm the system and have more deaths as a consequence.

I often hear that lock downs were not a serious plan for epidemies before 2020.
Have you checked for yourself? If yes, I'm interested.

What about the impact on health, especially psychological? How do you balance the harm done with the supposed benefits?

Another interesting thing is the fact that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating before february-march 2020.

 

[haidut]

Zero evidence of that.

Plenty of evidence for that.

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/2023-AHAR-Part-1.pdf

Homelessness in US surges to highest-recorded level

Homelessness in the United States is at an all-time high due to rising housing prices and a decline in assistance given during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Biden administration. The repo…

thehill.com

And there is plenty of evidence for reduced housing affordability nowadays compared to the 1960s.

https://www.thezebra.com/resources/home/housing-trends-visualized/

"...

• In 1960, the median home cost $11,900, while the median income was $5,600, indicating a price-to-income ratio of 2.1.
• By contrast, in 2019 the median home cost $240,500 with an estimated median income of $68,703, a price-to-income ratio of 3.5.

..."

"...The cost of housing has risen much more quickly than wages in the past 60 years. Adjusting for inflation, we were able to compare the growth in wages and housing costs.

• The median house of 1960 would cost just $104,619 in 2020 dollars, far below the actual cost of $240,500, meaning housing costs have increased by 129%.
• Median household income has only grown by 39% in that same time period, from $49,232 (2020 dollars) in 1960 to $68,703 today.

..."

There is a widely-used metric for estimating a country's economic health. It is the cost of education, housing, healthcare, and food - the so-called 4 pillars of society. By that metric, US (and Western countries in general) is a third-world country (see 3rd link below), considering real wages have not moved since the 1970s while the cost of the 4 pillars has skyrocketed. Actually, the wages have been flat when using the current CPI formula, which was changed 3-4 times since the 1960s. Using pre-1980s formula for calculating inflation, both real wages and GDP may be in negative territory.

Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart

www.shadowstats.com

For most U.S. workers, real wages have barely budged in decades

Adjusted for inflation, today's average hourly wage has about as much purchasing power as it did in 1978. Most wage increases have gone to the highest earners.

www.pewresearch.org

Why America is the World’s First Poor Rich Country

Or, How American Collapse is Made of a New Kind of Poverty

eand.co

The US economy has been a F.I.R.E. (finance, insurance, real-estate) dominated bubble for decades. The FIRE sector is 20% of GDP, govt spending is another 12%, health care (with abysmal outcomes and insane cost, easily beaten by even dirt-poor Cuba) is about 20%. So 50%+ of the economy is basically hot air. The country has been de-industrializing since the 1970s and now depends on most of its critical industrial, military and health-care components on competitors/enemies like China (and even Russia). Does that sound like economic "strength"?

GDP share by industry U.S. 2022 | Statista

In 2022, the finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing industry contributed the highest amount of value to the GDP of the U.S.

www.statista.com

And even in regards to the soaring stock market, if you remove the rising stock prices of companies (ab)using the "AI" vaporware (maybe 10 companies total), the S&P500 is negative for 2023. And "AI" is a scam, provable scam. If you want, I can provide links on that too.

AI hype is keeping the S&P 500 aloft

Here’s the difference it’s made for the S&P 500, and how you could take advantage.

finimize.com

In addition, the share of USD in world trade and reserve holdings by countries has been steadily dropping and now this drop is accelerating. Most central banks around the world have been dumping Treasuries and dollar holdings since 2022 and that trend is not abating - i.e. inflationary for USD. In fact, unless the US can find more "partners" like Argentina (whose dollarization will absorb some of the inflationary effects of never-ending QE in the US) or continue pushing the crypto scam as another QE "sink", it is quite possible that we will see hyperinflation in 2024. So, in light of all these inflationary pressures and the economy "being strong as hell" the FED is expected to cut rates several times in 2024, down from a meager rate of about 5%, which is the historical average over the last 50+ years? How does that even makes sense...unless the economy is mostly a scam, unable to survive without perennial QE/ZIRP?

Even if you dispute all of the above, the indisputable reality is that Millenials are less fertile, (potentially) less intelligent, sicker, and poorer than their parents, and GenZ is in an even worse shape than Millenials.

American IQ Scores Have Rapidly Dropped, Proving the 'Reverse Flynn Effect'

Are we really getting less intelligent? Here's the truth.

www.popularmechanics.com

Millennials are much poorer than their parents

Forget the "avocado toast" stereotype -- young adults spend their money no differently than past generations did

www.cbsnews.com

People born between 1981 and 1996 had less average wealth

A National Bureau of Economic Research report concluded that those born between 1981 and 1996 had less average wealth than all other age groups in the workforce in 2016.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Intelligence, fertility and general health are the best metrics of the quality of life in a given country, which stems largely from its economic health. But even looking at just economic data, it is hard to argue that the economy is great when two consecutive generations are poorer than the preceding one and the trend is downwards. To the point where about half of adults in the 18-30 age range live with their parents and have no plans on moving out any time soon.

Nearly Half of All Young Adults Live With Mom and Dad — and They Like It

The share of people in the US ages 18 to 29 who are living with family is at roughly the same level as in the 1940s.

www.bloomberg.com

@Peater @ThinPicking

 

[revenant]

Zero evidence of that.

View attachment 59809


Zero evidence of that.

View attachment 59808

You realize it says UNaffordable, right?

 

[Peater]

You realize it says UNaffordable, right?

Words are tricky.

 

[Alpha]

Plenty of evidence for that.

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/pdf/2023-AHAR-Part-1.pdf

Homelessness in US surges to highest-recorded level

Homelessness in the United States is at an all-time high due to rising housing prices and a decline in assistance given during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Biden administration. The repo…

thehill.com

Alright, I'll have to stop responding because this is taking up too much of my time, but because you posted a long response I'll only address your first point.

The number of homeless people did indeed inch up this year, surpassing the peak in 2007 by about 1%.

Now let's do the maths and see how much of the population in US is homeless today compared to 2007. I adjusted the total population by the estimate of illegal immigrants using data from the US Department of Homeland Security.

This clearly tells us that the rate of homelessness is declining in the US, dropping by more than 10% compared to 2007.

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigration-statistics/Pop_Estimate/UnauthImmigrant/unauthorized_immigrant_population_estimates_2015_-_2018.pdf

 

[haidut]

Alright, I'll have to stop responding because this is taking up too much of my time, but because you posted a long response I'll only address your first point.

The number of homeless people did indeed inch up this year, surpassing the peak in 2007 by about 1%.

View attachment 59816

Now let's do the maths and see how much of the population in US is homeless today compared to 2007. I adjusted the total population by the estimate of illegal immigrants using data from the US Department of Homeland Security.

View attachment 59817

This clearly tells us that the rate of homelessness is declining in the US, dropping by more than 10% compared to 2007.

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/immigration-statistics/Pop_Estimate/UnauthImmigrant/unauthorized_immigrant_population_estimates_2015_-_2018.pdf

The more I read about it, the more it looks like "homelessness" is yet another hot potato for economists subject to ever changing definitions, like unemployment.
The History of Homelessness in the United States - Permanent Supportive Housing - NCBI Bookshelf (see section on different types of homelessness)
Case in point, if we use the official definition of the latter, the US has a record low unemployment rate right now. However, if we use the "out of the labor force" definition, we are looking at record high numbers (37%) and it's not because those people are rich and deciding to sail into the sunset on their trust fund money.

More and more Americans are outside the labor force entirely. Who are they?

More than 92 million Americans last month were considered outside the labor force entirely. While most of them are older, the biggest increase has been among teens and young adults.

www.pewresearch.org

So, it is hard to find a definitive source on what exactly is considered a homeless person. Is it 6 months on the street, 12 months, years? What if somebody is couch surfing family/friends due to being chronically unemployed and broke? I would consider such people (who are also record numbers currently) to quality under homelessness. Anyways, I don't think this can be easily decided one way or the other due to lack of standard definitions plus constant change of such definitions. FWIW city data shows ever-increasing rates of homeless, with the biggest US cities being hit the worst. See chart 2 below.

State of the Homeless 2020 - Coalition For The Homeless

www.coalitionforthehomeless.org

 

[ThinPicking]

The more I read about it, the more it looks like "homelessness" is yet another hot potato for economists subject to ever changing definitions, like unemployment.

It certainly is, same here in the UK. Where for example, we can house people who fell through the cracks in shipping containers and strike them off the stats. Or simply fail to account for them at all.

I can appreciate the frames of mind that find the implications of all this hard to bear. The stats become a resort. But the chickens are coming home. And no biotech, Boston Dynamics or conscription "solution" will cut the mustard.

Perhaps only some difficult chats, a modicum of forgiveness and a few megatonnes of sugar. Assuming no blood.

 

[Alpha]

It certainly is, same here in the UK. Where for example, we can house people who fell through the cracks in shipping containers and strike them off the stats. Or simply fail to account for them at all.

I can appreciate the frames of mind that find the implications of all this hard to bear. The stats become a resort. But the chickens are coming home. And no biotech, Boston Dynamics or conscription "solution" will cut the mustard.

Perhaps only some difficult chats, a modicum of forgiveness and a few megatonnes of sugar. Assuming no blood.

Well, I must admit, that made me laugh out loud.

 

[akgrrrl]

RPF members this thread, I love that your crisp dialogue/knowledgeable discourse stands as a beacon of civility in a world gone mad. The grace of Dr. Raymond Peat moves forward.

 

[ThinPicking]

I'll have to stop responding because this is taking up too much of my time

Happy to relieve your angst alphalfa.

 

[Peater]

alphalfa

LOL

 

[AlaskaJono]

Yes I'm presenting dogma from Nature and Cell. Thanks for stopping by.

LMAO - even the Oligarchy owned Guardian has an article on the crap Nature has been known to publish.

How journals like Nature, Cell and Science are damaging science | Randy Schekman

Randy Schekman: The incentives offered by top journals distort science, just as big bonuses distort banking

www.theguardian.com

How journals like Nature, Cell and Science are damaging science​

This article is more than 10 years old
Randy Schekman

The incentives offered by top journals distort science, just as big bonuses distort banking