The fiasco of the 1976 ‘swine flu affair’
As the world rushes to roll out a vaccine to billions of people today, what might we learn from the ill-fated events of 1976?
It began at a US Army training base in New Jersey. In February 1976, several soldiers at Fort Dix fell ill with a previously unrecognised swine flu. None had been in contact with pigs, so human transmission was assumed. Testing revealed that the virus had spread to more than 200 recruits.
In March, President Ford announced a $137m (£67.5m in 1976) effort to produce a vaccine by the autumn. “Its goal was to immunise every man, woman and child in the US, and thus was the largest and most ambitious immunisation program ever undertaken in the United States,” wrote Imperato in a 2015 paper reflecting on the events.
With hindsight, it’s easy to see that the fears of the time were unfounded. The swine flu strain spotted at Fort Dix was not dangerous, and there would be no pandemic. Later, researchers discovered that benign swine flu strains had been circulating in the US population long before this one was identified at the military base.
So, as has happened throughout the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, the scientists could only give the best advice they could based on incomplete knowledge.
Still, that’s not to say that scientists were neutral in their uncertainties. As former president of the Institute of Medicine Harvey Fineberg concluded in a lacerating review of the events in 2008, plenty of senior scientists supported the vaccine with pre-existing agendas. Some researchers saw the chance to improve the credentials of their institution or field on the national stage, he wrote, while others held a “conviction that prevention of disease by vaccination was an achievable perfection of the human condition”.
As the months continued – still with no outbreak – new problems arose. And this time, they were real side-effects. Millions of vaccinations meant dozens of cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare problem where the body’s immune system attacks the nerves. It leads to weakness and tingling in the extremities, and in some cases can be severe, leading to other complications and paralysis.
As the world rushes to roll out a vaccine to billions of people today, what might we learn from the ill-fated events of 1976?
It began at a US Army training base in New Jersey. In February 1976, several soldiers at Fort Dix fell ill with a previously unrecognised swine flu. None had been in contact with pigs, so human transmission was assumed. Testing revealed that the virus had spread to more than 200 recruits.
In March, President Ford announced a $137m (£67.5m in 1976) effort to produce a vaccine by the autumn. “Its goal was to immunise every man, woman and child in the US, and thus was the largest and most ambitious immunisation program ever undertaken in the United States,” wrote Imperato in a 2015 paper reflecting on the events.
With hindsight, it’s easy to see that the fears of the time were unfounded. The swine flu strain spotted at Fort Dix was not dangerous, and there would be no pandemic. Later, researchers discovered that benign swine flu strains had been circulating in the US population long before this one was identified at the military base.
So, as has happened throughout the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, the scientists could only give the best advice they could based on incomplete knowledge.
Still, that’s not to say that scientists were neutral in their uncertainties. As former president of the Institute of Medicine Harvey Fineberg concluded in a lacerating review of the events in 2008, plenty of senior scientists supported the vaccine with pre-existing agendas. Some researchers saw the chance to improve the credentials of their institution or field on the national stage, he wrote, while others held a “conviction that prevention of disease by vaccination was an achievable perfection of the human condition”.
As the months continued – still with no outbreak – new problems arose. And this time, they were real side-effects. Millions of vaccinations meant dozens of cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare problem where the body’s immune system attacks the nerves. It leads to weakness and tingling in the extremities, and in some cases can be severe, leading to other complications and paralysis.
