Substituting Polyunsaturated Fat For Saturated Fat

[Mito]

Substituting polyunsaturated fat for saturated fat: A health impact assessment of a fat tax European countries

Published: July 10, 2019
Substituting polyunsaturated fat for saturated fat: A health impact assessment of a fat tax in seven European countries

Abstract
There is evidence that replacing saturated fat (SFA) with polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) lowers ischemic heart disease (IHD). In order to improve the population’s diet, the World Health Organization has called for the taxation of foods that are high in SFA. We aimed to assess the potential health gains of a European fat tax by applying the SFA intake reduction that has been observed under the Danish fat tax to six other European countries. For each country, we created a fat tax scenario with a decreased SFA intake and a corresponding increase in PUFA. We compared this fat tax scenario to a reference scenario with no change in SFA intake, and to a guideline scenario with a population-wide SFA intake in line with dietary recommendations. We used DYNAMO-HIA to dynamically project the policy-attributable IHD cases of these three scenarios 10 years into the future. A fat tax would reduce prevalent IHD cases by a minimum of 500 and 300 among males and females in Denmark, respectively, up to a maximum of 5,600 and 4,000 among males and females in the UK. Thereby, the prevented IHD cases under a fat tax scenario would correspond to between 11.0% (in females in the Netherlands) and 29.5% (in females in Italy) of the prevented IHD cases under a guideline scenario, which represents the maximum preventable disease burden. Henceforth, our quantification of beneficial health impacts makes the case for the policy debate on fat taxes.

 

[postman]

**** government

 

[lampofred]

In order to improve the population’s diet, the World Health Organization has called for the taxation of foods that are high in SFA.

Who is the WHO, our mom? "If you don't eat your veggies, you're punished." They seem a bit hysterical about this. Even if SFA is bad for us, it's our choice isn't it?

 

[jb116]

They first should understand the fundamentals of what comprises saturated fat. When you rattle off a list of things under that category and say "oils and margarine" as a general statement you know right off the bat this is all bull**** agenda.

 

[haidut]

to dynamically project the policy-attributable IHD cases of these three scenarios 10 years into the future

This is not even an epidemiological study comparing SFA to PUFA. It is a prediction of what should happen 10 years into the future based on their model. I am not even sure why stuff like this is being published in health journals. It should be in a computer science / algorithmic journal or something similar. There is nothing causal/actrionable that can be extracted from a study like this. When studies looked at what actually happened when SFA was replaced with PUFA, the results were the opposite of what this model-study predicts.
Eating PUFA Instead Of Butter Increases Overall Death Rates And CVD

 

[jb116]

This is not even an epidemiological study comparing SFA to PUFA. It is a prediction of what should happen 10 years into the future based on their model. I am not even sure why stuff like this is being published in health journals. It should be in a computer science / algorithmic journal or something similar. There is nothing causal/actrionable that can be extracted from a study like this. When studies looked at what actually happened when SFA was replaced with PUFA, the results were the opposite of what this model-study predicts.
Eating PUFA Instead Of Butter Increases Overall Death Rates And CVD

Want to add too, that what they predict is based on the on-going assumption or from their perspective, tricky language with premises that are loaded. For example when they say things like "reduces risk factors...," etc.

 

[haidut]

Want to add too, that what they predict is based on the on-going assumption or from their perspective, tricky language with premises that are loaded. For example when they say things like "reduces risk factors...," etc.

Yep, that too. But this is one of very few "studies" where they model and try to predict (based on assumptions of course) instead of actually testing for cause-effect or even findings correlations. Again, such "studies" do not belong in a health journal. They should be published in some kind of computer science / technical sector. Too many people will not even see how weak the setup of the study is and will take it for evidence as solid as an intervention or epidemiological study. As Yogi Berra used to say - "Predictions are VERY hard. Especially about the future"

 

[morgan#1]

?

 

[jb116]

Yep, that too. But this is one of very few "studies" where they model and try to predict (based on assumptions of course) instead of actually testing for cause-effect or even findings correlations. Again, such "studies" do not belong in a health journal. They should be published in some kind of computer science / technical sector. Too many people will not even see how weak the setup of the study is and will take it for evidence as solid as an intervention or epidemiological study. As Yogi Berra used to say - "Predictions are VERY hard. Especially about the future"

True, agreed.