Risk Management Expert And Engineering Manager Discuss Coronavirus Strategies

[David PS]

Two professionals, who are not part of the government or mainstream media, discuss the issues.

 

[BeefPineapple]

Here’s a very solid strategy:

1) not being an overweight fat piece of lard who eats all kinds of fatty crap all day

Thusly
2) restoring glucose metabolism and oxidation and healthy immune response

It’s gonna be funny when scared, obese, low HDL, (pre)diabetic westerners realize that 3rd world countries where people are leaner and hungrier don’t get panicky because of a somewhat more aggressive flu.

I wonder why Asia is fine... must be their fantastic risk management. Or is it that they’re just massively healthier as a whole?

 

[David PS]

The video is about the lack of a need for lockdowns.

In Italy, the explosive surge in new case was already on the wane before the lockdown was in place. It is similar in other countries as well (watch the video)>

In Sweden, there is no lockdown (the government stood up to international pressure) and they are fairing no worse than other countries. They use common sense distancing and the like.

The economic impact of the lockdown is going to last for months. The lockdown is going to be partially lifted in May. Part of the economy are being destroyed even as you read this.

 

[Peater Piper]

In Sweden, there is no lockdown (the government stood up to international pressure) and they are fairing no worse than other countries. They use common sense distancing and the like.

I'm keeping an eye on this. Sweden has more deaths than every other country in Scandinavia combined, and more than quadruple the number of deaths per capita, but their numbers are still very mild compared to the likes of Italy and Spain. What's interesting is their rise in cases and deaths per day. Both looked like they were starting to decline, but they spiked significantly in the past few days. Their all-cause mortality is still only slightly above their average, but again, above every other Scandinavian country. So their approach thus far has led to worse numbers than their neighbors, but it's in a region that's been mostly spared to this point.

 

[David PS]

I'm keeping an eye on this. Sweden has more deaths than every other country in Scandinavia combined, and more than quadruple the number of deaths per capita, but their numbers are still very mild compared to the likes of Italy and Spain. What's interesting is their rise in cases and deaths per day. Both looked like they were starting to decline, but they spiked significantly in the past few days. Their all-cause mortality is still only slightly above their average, but again, above every other Scandinavian country. So their approach thus far has led to worse numbers than their neighbors, but it's in a region that's been mostly spared to this point.

I agree they may have cherry-picked their countries in the movie. However, Sweden is the best control for whether or not the lockdown is needed. The other countries are all in lockdown. Here are the numbers from today (my picks).

Deaths per
Million​

Belgium 260
Netherlands 147
UK 132
Sweden 86
Ireland 58
Denmark 43
Germany 33
Norway 21

Sweden and Denmark have a landbridge and one might expect them to have about the rate. The other countries are near the same latitude. Sweden seems to be in the middle of this pack and yet no lockdown.

The virus is playing out in slow motion; weeks and not days. Let's keep an eye on the control country as compared to the rest.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,697,082 Cases and 102,650 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

 

[Regina]

I agree they may have cherry-picked their countries in the movie. However, Sweden is the best control for whether or not the lockdown is needed. The other countries are all in lockdown. Here are the numbers from today (my picks).

Deaths per
Million​

Belgium 260
Netherlands 147
UK 132
Sweden 86
Ireland 58
Denmark 43
Germany 33
Norway 21

Sweden and Denmark have a landbridge and one might expect them to have about the rate. The other countries are near the same latitude. Sweden seems to be in the middle of this pack and yet no lockdown.

The virus is playing out in slow motion; weeks and not days. Let's keep an eye on the control country as compared to the rest.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,697,082 Cases and 102,650 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

"Recovered" (Billy Gates loves that word)

 

[Peater Piper]

Sweden and Denmark have a landbridge and one might expect them to have about the rate. The other countries are near the same latitude. Sweden seems to be in the middle of this pack and yet no lockdown.

I'd add in Finland since they're also a direct neighbor, and they're at 9 deaths per million, though with Russia along one border it's possible they don't get the kind of through-traffic that other EU countries do. I haven't had a chance to watch the video yet, but judging from the comments, they're suggesting the virus had already been spreading for two months prior to the quarantines, making them too late to be effective? If that's true, then it should mitigate a second wave of infections once the quarantines are lifted. We won't know true infection rates until antibody testing begins.

 

[David PS]

I'd add in Finland since they're also a direct neighbor, and they're at 9 deaths per million, though with Russia along one border it's possible they don't get the kind of through-traffic that other EU countries do. I haven't had a chance to watch the video yet, but judging from the comments, they're suggesting the virus had already been spreading for two months prior to the quarantines, making them too late to be effective? If that's true, then it should mitigate a second wave of infections once the quarantines are lifted. We won't know true infection rates until antibody testing begins.

Okay. I did not include Finland because it seemed isolated and did not have the population density. My thoughts about the NYC crisis is that they were in denial about the need for everyone to wear gloves and masks when riding the subway. Mass transit systems speed the rate of spread. I did not think that Finland has the population density to have high numbers yet. Population density may account for much of the variation between the EU countries.

Europe: population density

Edit - Was Crowded Mass Transport Cars In NYC The Cause Of Their Epidemic?

 

[David PS]

 

[Waynish]

Risk management expert is an expert at selling his risk analysis without risking litigation or business...

 

[charlie]

"Trump claimed -- repeatedly -- that Sweden was "paying a price" for its policy of not locking down. The data (found here) says otherwise. The same "R" calculation that I run daily for the US and selected states I also run for them, because they did not lock down."
Enough Of The Lies @RealDonaldTrump

 

[Marcine]

Here’s a very solid strategy:

1) not being an overweight fat piece of lard who eats all kinds of fatty crap all day

Thusly
2) restoring glucose metabolism and oxidation and healthy immune response

It’s gonna be funny when scared, obese, low HDL, (pre)diabetic westerners realize that 3rd world countries where people are leaner and hungrier don’t get panicky because of a somewhat more aggressive flu.

I wonder why Asia is fine... must be their fantastic risk management. Or is it that they’re just massively healthier as a whole?

I live in Ecuador where your projection is not the case. this is a CIA state so The info is hyped here so people are in total fear, even as they starve, since the military is monitoring all movement. You are very judgemental with your fat piece of lard comment and you would benefit from some compassion and a different outlook toward your fellow humans. If you follow Peat seriously you know that people have been led down a path of poor nutrition via the evil corps, so get off your high horse, it's not helping.

 

[Waynish]

"Trump claimed -- repeatedly -- that Sweden was "paying a price" for its policy of not locking down. The data (found here) says otherwise. The same "R" calculation that I run daily for the US and selected states I also run for them, because they did not lock down."
Enough Of The Lies @RealDonaldTrump

So you believe there is a virus that is worth locking down for?
Sweden is and has paid the price. They're effectively a locked down society. I've lived there. It is nuts.

 

[charlie]

So you believe there is a virus that is worth locking down for?

Did you even read the article?