Ray Peat On Donald Trump

Discussion in 'Political Talk, Alternative World Theories' started by docall18, Feb 24, 2017.

  1. signalguy

    signalguy Member

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    Breaking News! Trumpcare is DEAD!
     
  2. zztr

    zztr Member

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    There is just no way you're showcasing mere ignorance of the facts. This is about your allegiance to foreigners over Americans, which was already quite clear. Illegal and legal immigrants are massive users of welfare and other public benefits. This is corroborated by many sources. You would have easily learned this with even a cursory investigation into the matter. But you're not actually curious because it's not about the facts, it's about Third Worldism.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. managing

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    Its cute the way you pretend to know what I think. "if'n yer not wit me, yer agin me" may be convenient, but it leaves you in a world filled with false dichotomies.

    Illegal Immigrants are not eligible for welfare. Period. How do 7 million people who can't collect welfare collect welfare?
     
  4. zztr

    zztr Member

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    I don't actually know what you think because I'm not sure if it's willful ignorance or you are being straight-up mendacious. It takes about five minutes to confirm what was indicated in the table I posted, that illegals can indeed collect many forms of welfare.

    https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Non-Citizen_Guidance_063011.pdf
     
  5. managing

    managing Member

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    THERE it is. "Many forms of welfare". No. Welfare is welfare. You mean "many forms of assistance". Yes, some forms are available. Welfare is not.

    And they pay into the system in MANY ways as well. And many of those ways they cannot collect benefit directly from. Those ways never seem to appear in these conversations, do they? Nor do the many ways in which they contribute to society. What is the balance? Even I won't pretend to know. But to look at only one side of the equation is to pretend there are 11 million people sitting on their asses watching telenovelas and eating tacos, waiting for their huge welfare check to arrive.

    A legal guest worker program is what is needed. Not a wall.

    What problem exists with illegal immigration that is not solved by a legal guest worker program?
     
  6. Ahanu

    Ahanu Member

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    I wonder who He will blame this time.
     
  7. Queequeg

    Queequeg Member

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    In addition to the many Government programs and subsidies that single illegal aliens qualify for, many illegal aliens soon have US born children and therefore qualify for every form of welfare available. Many of them come to this country already pregnant with that in mind. This way the whole family will qualify for AFDC among many other programs. The article I linked to before explained that this is costing US taxpayers over $2 billion per year just in food stamps. The analysis was based on USDA statistics. Its too bad that you so quick to dismiss it.
    Here is another source you may like better.

    "According to CIS, 71 percent of illegal-alien headed households with children received some sort of welfare in 2009, compared with 39 percent of native-headed houses with children. Illegal immigrants generally access welfare programs through their U.S.-born children, to whom government assistance is guaranteed. Additionally, U.S.-born children of illegal aliens are entitled to American public schools, health care, and more, even though illegal-alien households rarely pay taxes."
    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/422921/birthright-citizenship-economic-costs-incentives
     
  8. Queequeg

    Queequeg Member

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    I disagree. It’s true that some people who are against illegal immigration may be racist and are probably against all forms of immigration. However it’s wrong to say that people who are for the rule of law and controlled legal immigration do so because they are racist. That's like the common refrain from Obamanoids who say that people who oppose his policies do so because they are racist.

    And to answer your other question, I am half Latin American, so I too know many Latin Americans and Mexicans on a personal basis. The vast majority of them are professionals and immigrated here legally. However I have been involved in real estate development and know that many of the construction jobs done by my sub-contractors are going to illegal aliens who are being paid under the table. These jobs were previously done by American citizens.

    As for proof that illegal aliens are getting all sorts of welfare I answered that in the above post. Also only a tiny percentage of illegal aliens actually work in farming. Of those who work the vast majority are doing jobs that for the most part could be done by out of work Americans. One of the main reasons that the working poor are so poor is because their wages are being suppressed by a surplus of cheap labor who don't ask for benefits. Where America’s undocumented immigrants work
     
  9. managing

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    There is no way for them to avoid paying taxes.
    How much do undocumented immigrants pay in taxes?
    https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-01/study-undocumented-immigrants-pay-billions-in-taxes
    And it far exceeds benefits they receive.
    And they pay billions into social security without a way of ever receiving the benefits.
    The Truth About Undocumented Immigrants and Taxes

    Net positive. But again, what problems that you perceive with illegal immigration would not be solved with a legal guest worker program?
     
  10. managing

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    And yet, once again, I never called anybody racist.

    I am all for controlled legal immigration. But no such program exists for unskilled labor.

    By the way, your example of construction contractors paying undocumented workers "under the table" is not at all plausible for many reasons. A business or individual must pay them minimum wage, or not follow ALL federal, state, and local regs for overtime, breaks, pto, etc. If they were to not do so, the worker could sue them for unpaid wages and damages.

    Are Illegal Immigrants Protected By Labor And Employment Laws? | The Warshawsky Law Firm Blog

    If they were to pay them as subcontractors, this would still apply as there are very rigorous rules for subcontractors and the vast majority in this example would not qualify. Again, they could, and likely would, be sued into oblivion.

    Sure, some laborers may be naive enough not to know better. But I guarantee you there are labor organizers and opportunistic lawyers looking to assist them. Up until the last few months they need not have been concerned about deportation for participating in such an action, and could have seen a considerable windfall. Now, all bets are off. So perhaps it will get easier to abuse illegal immigrants and drive wages down. Too early to say for sure.

    Finally, if a business pays illegal immigrants "under the table" they cannot deduct those expenses from their taxes. Imagine an GC who collects hundreds of thousands of dollars in labor charges but can't show any expenses. They owe taxes on all of what appears to be profit. The taxes would far outweigh the cost of paying a fair wage, so why on earth would they pay "under the table"?
     
  11. Queequeg

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    Seems like another semi-racist implication to me. Again you can be against illegal immigration for many reasons other than not liking to say hola to your neighbors.

    Regardless of what you may have read online I assure you that it is very common for small construction projects to hire illegal aliens as independent contractors. I witnessed it several times and have probably hired an illegal alien as a contractor myself. You may have as well without knowing. The main rule of thumb to be an independent contractor is if they are self directed. This is very subjective and very difficult to enforce. Larger construction companies will hire illegals with false SS numbers but smaller ones won’t bother as they don't want to pay the payroll taxes. Technically it is not under the table as the contractor can show he is paying a sub (the illegal) a fixed amount for a service. The contractor deducts it as an expense and the illegal pockets the money w/o paying taxes. Many illegals start their own firms as LLCs and get an EIN number from the IRS to make it that much more plausible for the contractor.

    As far as the study showing that illegals pay $12 billion a year to social security. Do you really think that $12 billion is a lot of money and fully covers the burden that they and their children place on US taxpayers? It’s not even close. It's estimated that illegal aliens and their children cost the US $113 billion per year.

    The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers (2013)
    • Illegal immigration costs U.S. taxpayers about $113 billion a year at the federal, state and local level. The bulk of the costs — some $84 billion — are absorbed by state and local governments.
    • The annual outlay that illegal aliens cost U.S. taxpayers is an average amount per native-headed household of $1,117. The fiscal impact per household varies considerably because the greatest share of the burden falls on state and local taxpayers whose burden depends on the size of the illegal alien population in that locality
    • Education for the children of illegal aliens constitutes the single largest cost to taxpayers, at an annual price tag of nearly $52 billion. Nearly all of those costs are absorbed by state and local governments.
    • At the federal level, about one-third of outlays are matched by tax collections from illegal aliens. At the state and local level, an average of less than 5 percent of the public costs associated with illegal immigration is recouped through taxes collected from illegal aliens.
    • Most illegal aliens do not pay income taxes. Among those who do, much of the revenues collected are refunded to the illegal aliens when they file tax returns. Many are also claiming tax credits resulting in payments from the U.S. Treasury.
    This puts the issue into perspective.
    Sorry, But Illegal Aliens Cost The U.S. Plenty
    "Bottom line, illegal immigrants have a 10th grade education on average," he said. "In the modern American economy people with that level of education tend to make modest wages and as result pay relatively little in taxes, at the same time they tend to use a lot in public services, regardless of legal status. In the case of illegals, they often receive benefits on behalf of their U.S.-born children. If you had to put it in a bumper sticker it would be: 'there is a high cost to cheap labor.' "
     
  12. Queequeg

    Queequeg Member

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    I am not sure why you think that we don't have a guest worker program. We have several of them. But no matter how large it is, it could never solve the problem of illegal immigration. There are billions of people in the world, many living in poverty, who would love to make their way to America. Though many on the left think we should have open borders, that would be the end of us as a country. It is impossible for us to take in everyone who wants to live here.

    Nobel prize winning economist Milton Friedman once said that you can have open borders or you can have a welfare state, but you can't have them both. That in essence is the problem with illegal immigration.
     
  13. jaguar43

    jaguar43 Member

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    If you listen to the herb doctor interview on Authoritarianism, Peat explicitly mentions why the influx of immigrants came from Mexico. NAFTA subsidized U.S grown corn and allow it to be sold in Mexico. Leaving many farmers out of business, which increased immigration from Mexico. Here is the whole quote.

    Dr. Ray Peat: That’s now being called free trade and the trade deals which are essentially allowing the biggest corporations to impose their political standards on the rest of the world in an empire, so a free trade is really subjecting political rules in other countries to the international corporations benefit the environment in Mexico for example has been deteriorating for several decades with the maquiladora industry along the border but then the NAFTA started because our corn can be grown industrially on a huge scale in the United States. The subsidized corn has to be freely admitted in the Mexico for people using subsistent methods depended for their livelihood on growing their own corn and animals. And so this subsidized cheap corn displaced farmers and created the influx of immigrants who are wondered for cheap labor in the farms and probably eventually if there were any factories left it would be doing maquiladora type work in the US.

    Herb Doctors: Authoritarianism


    And did Milton Friedman support NAFTA ? Yes he did, which is why I also wonder whether Trump and the whole right wing that has followed suite actually care about the damage done by the Free trade deals. Or was it another opportunity to win voters over. You can't be against NAFTA and other free trade deals and quote Milton Friedman at the same time. Thats an oxymoron.
     
  14. managing

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    Okay, so now I've said they are "semi" racist? No, you are the one calling that racism. Not I. I am describing things in order to discuss them. Name calling aims to end discussion by dehumanizing the object of the label. If somebody doesn't like the changing race, ethnicity, etc of their neighborhood and town you may wish to shout them down as "racist." I wish to open up a conversation with them about what they are experiencing, how it makes them feel, what they fear, etc.

    "I don't know what you've read on the internet". Very clever way of implying I don't know what I am talking about. Unfortunately, I do. I am a business owner. Why do you think I keep defending our right to make a profit? The scenario you describe would be almost impossible to get away with, even for small companies. It mostly revolves around you confusing "subcontractor" singular and plural. On a construction site, a "subcontractor" is a company that performs a specialized task like plumbing or carpentry. But in business lingo, a "subcontractor" is an individual performing some function, like, say, fixing a computer. After doing so, they go away and do something else for somebody else. The latter isn't the same as the former because the General Contractor doesn't pay the individuals, they pay the company. In the latter you pay the individual. BTW, my father was a residential GC in the 80s, 90s, and 00s. He taught me accounting. I saw the books. And I knew the subs and the individuals, and what they were paid, and so on.

    So, in the collective sense, if you hire a subcontractor, there are no rules at all in terms of criteria for the relationship. They are a company. You pay them. You give them a 1099 and record what you paid them as an expense. 1099s are compared to the entities own tax filings all the time. If they don't match, you will have to account for it. If it happens more than once in a blue moon, you will get audited.

    In the singular it works the same, except there are all kinds of rules. This changed and became much more rigorous several years ago. There are many more criterion than just "self-directed". https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-regs/subcontractorsfaq&a.prn.pdf . These are regularly enforced through audit by state and federal agencies. Improperly classified "subcontractors" also successfully sue employers for large sums of money. It is very difficult for unscrupulous people to get away with this. There are of course a small % of bad apples as there always are who try. But it is increasingly difficult for them to get away with it. And, getting back to 1099s--when a business sends an individual a 1099, you can be virtually guaranteed that state and federal agencies will compare that to the income reported on the individual's tax return. And if no return, you can be sure the case will be handed off to enforcement.

    There is of course one gray area. Individuals can and almost certainly do hire a handyman or gardener or housekeeper this way. And yes, it used to be native, well, native born, Americans doing that work. ANd in many places it isn't anymore. I used to mow lawns when I was a kid. When I was really small my mother cleaned homes while going to college at night. I just spoke with her about how much she made. She didn't make minimum wage. Neither did I when I mowed lawns. We both bid low to get the job. Kinda like it operates now. Are we really chasing these jobs? I know I'm not. And when my kids are old enough to do odd jobs for spending money, they may be better off making minimum wage at Starbucks. Jobs that were almost impossible to get for a 16 yr old then, and very easy now.

    You latched onto the 12 billion in social security payments but it is but one of many contributions. You may, or may not, have come up with an exhaustive list of costs. I don't know and neither do you. Like I said before, none of us know the balance. But you know what would make it easier for the experts whose job it is to figure these things out? A legal guest worker program that clearly delineates rights and obligations.

    I've asked several times without a reply. Do you care to respond? What problems with illegal immigration could not be solved by a legal guest worker program?
     
  15. Queequeg

    Queequeg Member

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    I see you’ve gone back out to the ledge. So let’s back it up and not get it twisted. You are the one impugning the motives of those who disagree with you. It is not fair to say that people who are against illegal immigration are that way because they “can’t accept that America is getting less white” or the “Mexicans and other Latin Americans [are] becoming a large population (trending toward majority).” In my opinion only a racist would think that way. Claiming that is the reason for their opposition to illegal immigration is the same as accusing someone of racism. Accusing me of what you did is right out of The Rules For Radicals.
    Yes, I was politely implying that you don’t know what you’re talking about when it comes to construction. I am in the business and can tell you first hand that many of my sub-contractors will hire their workers as independent contractors. Most of these construction projects last only 3-6 months and each subcontractor is on the project for a few weeks at most. There is less of a chance for the GC or sub to get in trouble by hiring an illegal independent contractor than by hiring an illegal full time employee. In both case 1099s need to be matched but never will be.

    I admire your persistence but again you are basing your knowledge on limited personal experience. Most GC’s may have played by the rules 20 years ago but that is not the case anymore. Here is a good description of the issues from a news source I hope you won’t dismiss as being biased against illegals. Also pay attention to how rampant illegal immigration has driven down construction wages to poverty levels of $12/hr.

    Texas Contractors Say Playing By The Rules Doesn't Pay
    “Trent, who asked that NPR not use his last name because the IRS might take an interest in his business, designs and builds landscapes in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. "I don't pay anyone by the hour. In fact, I treat the guys that work on my crew as subcontractors — they are self-employed," he says.

    This is a key distinction. If Trent were to classify his workers as employees, he'd have to pay taxes, Social Security, unemployment and overtime. But by saying his workers are actually independent contractors — in essence, business owners — he's off the hook.

    Trent says his workers have been working with him for years. He has between four and seven laborers per day on most projects. And he knows most of them don't have papers. "I would say 10 percent are documented," he says.”
    The $12 billion over-payment into social security is important because it is often misused by the media to “prove” that illegals pay far more than they receive. However this is a pretty blatant sleight of hand because it tries to artificially restrict the analysis to only social security while ignoring all the other benefits paid out. I linked to a study from a respected immigration think tank that has calculated the net cost of illegal immigration as over $113 billion per year. Other studies have come up with similar numbers. Instead of refuting it you just dismiss it by saying “none of us know the balance.” That’s funny because you previously claimed that the balance was knowable and was a net positive.

    So lets summarize were we are.
    You previously claimed that illegals cannot qualify for welfare. I and @zztr have shown you that they can, especially through their children.
    You claimed that we haven’t had a guest worker program in decades. We actually have several.
    You sad that they pay all the same taxes we do. They don’t. Certainly not income taxes and many don’t pay payroll taxes either.
    You claimed that abuses of H1B visas are a minority. Not true. There is no restriction to its use for jobs over 60k and companies are using it to replace their tech workers in all industries.
    You claimed that illegal immigrants are not lowering construction pay. The above article shows otherwise.
    You claim that illegals are not clustered in sanctuary cites but are out working on the farm. According to Pew research, only 3% of illegals work in agriculture.
    And lastly you insisted construction companies don’t hire illegals as independent contractors. I hope the above article has put that to bed as well.

    I don’t mean to be harsh, and I hope you take this as part of a good spirited internet debate, but how many times do you need to be proven wrong before you take a step back and reassess your beliefs? You previously asked what propaganda has you so hoodwinked. Well I would ask what have you been reading or watching on TV.

    As for your legal guest worker cure-all, I already answered that, twice.
     
  16. Queequeg

    Queequeg Member

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    NAFTA screwed Mexico in many ways as well as screwed us in many ways. The only ones who benefited where the large corporations. But I am not sure about your point on Milton Friedman. You don't have to agree with everything a person says in order to use one of their more memorable quotes. How many times have people quoted Goebbells on the use of propaganda? Must they be in agreement with everything he did or said?
     
  17. managing

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    Look, you started out principled but now you are just repeating the same propaganda. So I am not going to waste time with most of this.

    But, as for guest worker programs, no you haven't answered. You've said "we have several of them". You want to roll it all up with H1B and similar. We have no legal guest worker program for unskilled labor. None. And you've identified no problems that such a program could not address. There may be some, I don't know. that is why I thought I was reaching out to someone who has thought this through that might identify a few. I can't think of any issues that couldn't be addressed by such a program, including, but not limited to everything you've said about problems with illegal immigration. But you've said nothing in response to this question. Unless my browser is hiding them from me :):.
     
  18. zztr

    zztr Member

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    Why the heck would we want any sort of unskilled guest worker program when there are unemployed americans? I'm pretty sure you're a Third Worldist, but I'm also realizing you're probably just greedy and you don't like paying people in whatever your line of business.
     
  19. x-ray peat

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  20. managing

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    You are quite possibly the sweetest most open-minded individual . . . [snicker]

    How many unemployed Americans are there? I mean the ones looking for unskilled labor positions? In my area there are next to none. Unemployement, total unemployment is 3.4%. And of course many of those people are not seeking unskilled labor positions. But an unemployment rate below 4% is unsustainable. I advertise positions at $20/hr almost constantly and can't get decent applicants. I'd happily pay guest workers that rate if they are reliable and hard-working and at least average intelligence.

    But that is the beauty of a legal guest worker program. If there are no unfilled jobs, then nobody gets a guest worker visa.

    Do I still sound like a third-worldist? If you already read my mind, why are you reading my posts?
     
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