Open-mindedness, Intelligence Key For Predicting The Future

[haidut]

Good article discussing the many shortcomings of the so-called "experts" and how open-mindedness, which is largely determined by the metabolic rate (as Ray has written before), is much more important in making good estimates/decisions about the future than an accumulation of known "facts". Also, according to the study, open-mindedness correlated highly with intelligence, which is another way of saying that metabolism and intelligence go hand in hand. Another win for Peat I think.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2014061 ... the-future

"...As you might expect, these elite forecasters tended to score better on measures of intelligence than the other participants. But they all shared one other trait too: open-mindedness. In everyday life, open-mindedness may be mistaken for having liberal political views, but in psychology it is thought to reflect how well you deal with uncertainty. Crucially, open-minded people tend to be able to see problems from all sides, which seems to help forecasters overcome their preconceptions in the light of new evidence. “You need to change your mind fast, and often,” says Tetlock."

It reminds me of the other article I posted about 5-year old children making uncannily accurate predictions about the far future (10-20 years), and nothing is as open minded and metabolically active as a curious child.

 

[jaa]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

Open-minded people, by definition, update their beliefs (probabilistic model of the world) based upon new evidence, whereas those who just collect facts see the world in a more binary mode and are unlikely to adjust their beliefs based on evidence that goes against their facts.

 

[Curt :-)]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

Before reading about Peat's views on this topic, I had already noticed that unhealthy people struggle with new idea's. Ill people can even deny things in the face of clear evidence to the contrary. It's quite sad, particularly, if say, the thing you cannot accept is hurting someone else (accepting someone's sexuality, for example).

My Dad is very unwell and he constantly argue's with my other family members about menial things, usually to try to prove that he is right. He makes himself unhappy in the process, which is hard to sit by and watch.

 

[Such_Saturation]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

the other article I posted about 5-year old children making uncannily accurate predictions about the far future (10-20 years)

Where is that? I've been searching!

 

[haidut]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

the other article I posted about 5-year old children making uncannily accurate predictions about the far future (10-20 years)

Where is that? I've been searching!

Here you go:
http://www.dvice.com/archives/2012/08/k ... 995_pr.php
http://www.fastcompany.com/3010768/chil ... -computing

There was a much longer article on Yahoo News but it seems most references have disappeared. I guess the article is old and most websites delete old links after some time.

 

[Such_Saturation]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

the other article I posted about 5-year old children making uncannily accurate predictions about the far future (10-20 years)

Where is that? I've been searching!

Here you go:
http://www.dvice.com/archives/2012/08/k ... 995_pr.php
http://www.fastcompany.com/3010768/chil ... -computing

There was a much longer article on Yahoo News but it seems most references have disappeared. I guess the article is old and most websites delete old links after some time.

Let's open a children-based analysis firm

 

[haidut]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

the other article I posted about 5-year old children making uncannily accurate predictions about the far future (10-20 years)

Where is that? I've been searching!

Here you go:
http://www.dvice.com/archives/2012/08/k ... 995_pr.php
http://www.fastcompany.com/3010768/chil ... -computing

There was a much longer article on Yahoo News but it seems most references have disappeared. I guess the article is old and most websites delete old links after some time.

Let's open a children-based analysis firm

I hear you. But if it's successful I am pretty sure we will get sued for child exploitation and we will get shut down. The estblishment will not take lightly the insult that a bunch of children regularly outperform the crowd of so-called "experts".

 

[Such_Saturation]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

the other article I posted about 5-year old children making uncannily accurate predictions about the far future (10-20 years)

Where is that? I've been searching!

Here you go:
http://www.dvice.com/archives/2012/08/k ... 995_pr.php
http://www.fastcompany.com/3010768/chil ... -computing

There was a much longer article on Yahoo News but it seems most references have disappeared. I guess the article is old and most websites delete old links after some time.

Let's open a children-based analysis firm

I hear you. But if it's successful I am pretty sure we will get sued for child exploitation and we will get shut down. The estblishment will not take lightly the insult that a bunch of children regularly outperform the crowd of so-called "experts".

You know how Microsoft guessed Scotland's referendum results? Instead of asking "who will you vote" they asked "who do you think will win". Basically we do all the work. I personally predicted 44 to 47 percent in favor of secession and it turned out 44.7%. Microsoft's guess was 48.7% I think.

 

[gummybear]

Re: Open-mindedness, intelligence key for predicting the fut

the other article I posted about 5-year old children making uncannily accurate predictions about the far future (10-20 years)

Where is that? I've been searching!

Here you go:
http://www.dvice.com/archives/2012/08/k ... 995_pr.php
http://www.fastcompany.com/3010768/chil ... -computing

There was a much longer article on Yahoo News but it seems most references have disappeared. I guess the article is old and most websites delete old links after some time.

Let's open a children-based analysis firm

I hear you. But if it's successful I am pretty sure we will get sued for child exploitation and we will get shut down. The estblishment will not take lightly the insult that a bunch of children regularly outperform the crowd of so-called "experts".

You know how Microsoft guessed Scotland's referendum results? Instead of asking "who will you vote" they asked "who do you think will win". Basically we do all the work. I personally predicted 44 to 47 percent in favor of secession and it turned out 44.7%. Microsoft's guess was 48.7% I think.