Mortality Rate Of COVID-19 Is 0.5%, Much Lower Than CDC / WHO Claims

[S.Seneff]

Correcting under-reported COVID-19 case numbers
View ORCID ProfileAlexander Lachmann
doi: Correcting under-reported COVID-19 case numbers
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

The COVID-19 virus has spread worldwide in a matter of a few months. Healthcare systems struggle to monitor and report current cases. Limited capabilities in testing result in difficult to guide policies and mitigate lack of preparation. Since severe cases, which more likely lead to fatal outcomes, are detected at a higher percentage than mild cases, the reported death rates are likely inflated in most countries. Such under-estimation can be attributed to the under-sampling of infection cases and results in systematic death rate estimation biases. The method proposed here utilizes a benchmark country (South Korea) and its reported death rates in combination with population demographics to correct the reported COVID-19 case numbers. By applying a correction, we predict that the number of cases is highly under-reported in most countries. In the case of China, it is estimated that more than 700.000 cases of COVID-19 actually occurred instead of the confirmed 80,932 cases as of 3/13/2020.

 

[Whichway?]

Here is a review of IFR for the Centre of Evidence Based Medicine at The University of Oxford. Bit more comprehensive, but conspiracy theorists will go nuts I'm sure.

 

[Whichway?]

Some very big variations in IFR there, Cherry pick away!!!!

 

[mimmo123]

Age group and death rates by PRE-EXISTING CONDITION attached
Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

 

[Peatogenic]

The Coronavirus (whatever it is) killed 425 yesterday in U.S., according to Worldometer

 

[theLaw]

The Coronavirus (whatever it is) killed 425 yesterday in U.S., according to Worldometer

I just checked it at : United States Coronavirus: 144,280 Cases and 2,597 Deaths - Worldometer

For March 29th there were 362 deaths, down from 525 the previous day.

 

[Peatogenic]

I just checked it at : United States Coronavirus: 144,280 Cases and 2,597 Deaths - Worldometer

For March 29th there were 362 deaths, down from 525 the previous day.

I know. Further down it says upwards of 500 on 29th. That's still a lot higher than a daily flu average. Even 300.

 

[theLaw]

I know. Further down it says upwards of 500 on 29th. That's still a lot higher than a daily flu average. Even 300.

I scrolled down, but can't find what you are referring to there. Where is it exactly? Thanks!

March 29 (GMT)

• 19913 new cases and 362 new deaths in the United States
  
  
  Among the deaths: a 42-year-old woman in Arkansas with no pre-existing health condition (and who had never been hospitalized before, according to her sister) who felt "a little sick" on March 15 and thought it to be a cold or a sinus infection. After developing shortness of breath and cough that wouldn't go away, she was admitted to the hospital on March 24 and tested positive to Covid-19. She was put on a ventilator in ICU and, after 4 days (on Saturday, March 28), she died. [source]
  

• Trump extends federal social distancing guidelines for an additional 30 days, up to April 30 [source]

West Virginia had retracted its report of 1 death in the state. We have updated our data accordingly [source]

 

[Peatogenic]

I scrolled down, but can't find what you are referring to there. Where is it exactly? Thanks!

I got the date wrong, 500+ on 28th. There's a day by day news summary below graphs. But it doesn't matter, even 200 deaths a day is higher than a national daily flu death average. I think an average flu death daily average would be around 100. Not saying this means that it's more fatal than flu, just keeping ducks in a row. It would make sense for people to be alarmed by 500+ deaths in a single day, caused by Coronavirus (whatever it is).

 

[theLaw]

I got the date wrong, 500+ on 28th. There's a day by day news summary below graphs. But it doesn't matter, even 200 deaths a day is higher than a national daily flu death average. I think an average flu death daily average would be around 100. Not saying this means that it's more fatal than flu, just keeping ducks in a row. It would make sense for people to be alarmed by 500+ deaths in a single day, caused by Coronavirus (whatever it is).

I think that your numbers might be a bit off on the average flu deaths in the US.

2017-2018 flu deaths in the US were estimated at 61,000 (I'm using the high-end est because the death rate would need to be comparable to that to even begin to argue for a shutdown like we've experienced)

The flu season generally runs 6 months out of the year, so that would be around 338 deaths per day on average.

Then you would need to see that number sustained over many months, as there are obviously not 338 deaths exactly per day, but instead a fluctuation.

You could also just use the per month estimate (around 10,000 deaths) for a rough comparison.

From what I can see, we're not even close to those numbers yet.

 

[Peatogenic]

I think that your numbers might be a bit off on the average flu deaths in the US.

2017-2018 flu deaths in the US were estimated at 61,000 (I'm using the high-end est because the death rate would need to be comparable to that to even begin to argue for a shutdown like we've experienced)

The flu season generally runs 6 months out of the year, so that would be around 338 deaths per day on average.

Then you would need to see that number sustained over many months, as there are obviously not 338 deaths exactly per day, but instead a fluctuation.

You could also just use the per month estimate (around 10,000 deaths) for a rough comparison.

From what I can see, we're not even close to those numbers yet.

But the argument in the world is exponential growth. I thought US average was about 30000 a year flu deaths. Either way, with your rationale, that would put current numbers very close to your average and definitely higher (and in April/not winter). What I've shared is not really something that can be argued with. 400-500 deaths all of a sudden is definitely higher than flu and is reason to be concerned, whether it sustains these numbers or grows exponentially is not what im sharing.

 

[theLaw]

But the argument in the world is exponential growth. I thought US average was about 30000 a year flu deaths. Either way, with your rationale, that would put current numbers very close to your average and definitely higher (and in April/not winter). What I've shared is not really something that can be argued with. 400-500 deaths all of a sudden is definitely higher than flu and is reason to be concerned, whether it sustains these numbers or grows exponentially is not what im sharing.

Yes, but keep in mind that the original estimates were if we did not intervene at all. Now those estimates have obviously been recalculated.

The problem is that these numbers will need to (at the very least) exceed the average flu.

Your argument is based on projections without taking into account the flattening of the curve, or even a simple slowing of the growth (see Italy's deaths over the last few days).

This is precisely how the media/government are writing this hysterical narrative, based on what could happen, not what is most likely.

With regards to the spike in death-rate, this could be written off with disorganization and incompetence at a state/government level based on resources.

Finally, 400-500 deaths over a few days could actually be the flu based on the average flu deaths in a season. The difference is that the media has branded this particular flu, and created an enormous amount of panic around it.

Keep in mind, two weeks ago we created a local (not national) toilet-paper shortage in the US through panic-buying. This same idea applies with the panic created from the narrative around the virus.

Flu deaths are never discussed by the media in the US, so it's not unreasonable to suspect that this virus and its effects might be over-hyped. Cheers!

 

[Peatogenic]

Yes, but keep in mind that the original estimates were if we did not intervene at all. Now those estimates have obviously been recalculated.

The problem is that these numbers will need to (at the very least) exceed the average flu.

Your argument is based on projections without taking into account the flattening of the curve, or even a simple slowing of the growth (see Italy's deaths over the last few days).

This is precisely how the media/government are writing this hysterical narrative, based on what could happen, not what is most likely.

With regards to the spike in death-rate, this could be written off with disorganization and incompetence at a state/government level based on resources.

Finally, 400-500 deaths over a few days could actually be the flu based on the average flu deaths in a season. The difference is that the media has branded this particular flu, and created an enormous amount of panic around it.

Keep in mind, two weeks ago we created a local (not national) toilet-paper shortage in the US through panic-buying. This same idea applies with the panic created from the narrative around the virus.

Flu deaths are never discussed by the media in the US, so it's not unreasonable to suspect that this virus and its effects might be over-hyped. Cheers!

Wtf, I did not make an argument. I made no such implication. I specifically said that I was making no projection of the numbers sustaining or growing. Just that 300-500 is a lot. It's important to account for all info. The media has even more reason to paint a negative story now, and neither of us really know.

 

[SOMO]

I wasnt massively concerned, however I just read Doris Loh's articles and they do have me more suspicious.

COVID-19, Pneumonia & Inflammasomes - The Melatonin Connection - EvolutaMente.it

COVID-19 Mutations, Vaccines & Nitric Oxide - The Vitamin C Connection - EvolutaMente.it

COVID-19, Furins & Hypoxia - The Vitamin C Connection - EvolutaMente.it

@haidut if you have time to review these articles, Id be very curious on your thoughts, especially since Melatonin, Ascorbic Acid and Nitric Oxide are touted as something beneficial for treatment and prevention.

Nobody here thinks Melatonin or Nitric Oxide are beneficial.

Vitamin C has a role in restoring metabolism.

 

[theLaw]

Wtf, I did not make an argument. I made no such implication. I specifically said that I was making no projection of the numbers sustaining or growing. Just that 300-500 is a lot. It's important to account for all info. The media has even more reason to paint a negative story now, and neither of us really know.

Not sure what you're referring to exactly. Please note, I was not trying to accuse you of anything, but simply laying out how the data can be misrepresented to fit a particular narrative.

You can't simply take the death-rate at it's highest for a few days, and then claim that it "a lot" when the flu numbers appear to be very close (if not the same). If it were multiple times the average flu over an extended period of time, then you might have an argument, but the data doesn't show that at all.

Do you have the breakdown of the actual exact flu deaths per day from any past years in the US? Was there a running total death-clock on every major network for the flu?

Here's my contention: if the number of deaths don't exceed the flu for the season, then this has been a huge scam for reasons other than saving lives.

 

[Peatogenic]

Not sure what you're referring to exactly. Please note, I was not trying to accuse you of anything, but simply laying out how the data can be misrepresented to fit a particular narrative.

You can't simply take the death-rate at it's highest for a few days, and then claim that it "a lot" when the flu numbers appear to be very close (if not the same). If it were multiple times the average flu over an extended period of time, then you might have an argument, but the data doesn't show that at all.

Do you have the breakdown of the actual exact flu deaths per day from any past years in the US? Was there a running total death-clock on every major network for the flu?

Here's my contention: if the number of deaths don't exceed the flu for the season, then this has been a huge scam for reasons other than saving lives.

Maybe the fact that you think you need to explain this stuff to me? You said I was making an argument and that it's related to media sensationalism. Most sources show average yearly death rate for Flu in US at 20000-ish. Over 6 months that's well under 200 deaths a day over 6 months. I can't believe someone would try and justify how 300-500 is not noteworthy, even with a flattening (whenever it comes). To acknowledge this is not an assertion that it will be worse than flu, which I made ...extremely clear in my first comment. Like, there's nothing to explain away. In technical terms it's noteworthy.

 

[RealNeat]

Nobody here thinks Melatonin or Nitric Oxide are beneficial.

Vitamin C has a role in restoring metabolism.

These are short term applications. There are many other substances that are harmful long term that can benefit in a life or death situation. I know Peat's stance on them. Plus Peat has recently said that low dose melatonin isn't a big deal. Plus different avenues of administration of something like Nitric Oxide can yield different physiological effects. I'm not defending these, but Doris makes some decent points that I wanted a keener eye to inspect. If melatonin is helping people get to sleep or initiate a physiological response in limiting serotonin production it'll be worth it.

 

[theLaw]

Maybe the fact that you think you need to explain this stuff to me? You said I was making an argument and that it's related to media sensationalism.

I apologized in the last post for anything that came off as accusatory, so I'm not going to respond to this any further. I'm explaining my data, and your feelings about how I explain that are your business, not mine.

Most sources show average yearly death rate for Flu in US at 20000-ish. Over 6 months that's well under 200 deaths a day over 6 months.

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates - 62,000 (2019-20)

2017–2018 United States flu season - Wikipedia - The 2017–2018 flu season resulted in an estimated 61,099 deaths.

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC -34,200 (2018-19)

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC - 61,099 (2017-18)

Burden Estimates for the 2016-2017 Influenza Season | CDC - 38,230 (2016-17)

Burden Estimates for the 2015-2016 Influenza Season | CDC - 22,705 (2015-16)

Burden Estimates for the 2014-2015 Influenza Season | CDC - 51,376 (2014-15)

I can't believe someone would try and justify how 300-500 is not noteworthy, even with a flattening (whenever it comes). To acknowledge this is not an assertion that it will be worse than flu, which I made ...extremely clear in my first comment. Like, there's nothing to explain away. In technical terms it's noteworthy.

It's not noteworthy if it's very close (if not exactly) the same as the flu, unless you're making the argument that average flu deaths are noteworthy.

 

[Peatogenic]

I apologized in the last post for anything that came off as accusatory, so I'm not going to respond to this any further. I'm explaining my data, and your feelings about how I explain that are your business, not mine.



Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates - 62,000 (2019-20)

2017–2018 United States flu season - Wikipedia - The 2017–2018 flu season resulted in an estimated 61,099 deaths.

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC -34,200 (2018-19)

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC - 61,099 (2017-18)

Burden Estimates for the 2016-2017 Influenza Season | CDC - 38,230 (2016-17)

Burden Estimates for the 2015-2016 Influenza Season | CDC - 22,705 (2015-16)

Burden Estimates for the 2014-2015 Influenza Season | CDC - 51,376 (2014-15)



It's not noteworthy if it's very close (if not exactly) the same as the flu, unless you're making the argument that average flu deaths are noteworthy.

The info you were sharing, even after the apology, implied I'm trying to push a COVID is worse than flu argument.

You said originally that the average was around 60000. It appears the average is more like around 40000+ over the years. Last year it was 30000+. So to say 60000 is our average is not intellectually honest. If I compare to last year, it's still roughly 150 deaths higher per day this week, but I guess I don't know if that's noteworthy in medical circles. 300 feels noteworthy to me....*if* I'm comparing to last year.

Further, in other threads, it's noted how flu deaths are often attributed even if only pneumonia, implying that flu counts could even be exaggerated.

Admittedly, I was going off a 22,000 average flu mortality in U.S. which definitely makes COVID numbers currently higher, or 200-500 noteworthy, but if going by a 45000 average it's about the same currently.

 

[theLaw]

You said originally that the average was around 60000. It appears the average is more like around 40000+ over the years. Last year it was 30000+. So to say 60000 is our average is not intellectually honest. If I compare to last year, it's still roughly 150 deaths higher per day this week, but I guess I don't know if that's noteworthy in medical circles.

Admittedly, I was going off a 22,000 average flu mortality in U.S. which definitely makes COVID numbers currently higher, or 200-500 noteworthy, but if going by a 45000 average it's about the same currently.

First off, here is some clarification on the 60,000 est that I posted: In the US, we've just decimated our economy due to a claim (from the Gov/CDC/WHO) that we are experiencing a pandemic significantly worse than the flu. Obviously, if it were just a little worse than the flu, then we wouldn't have taken such extreme precautions.

So, given this extreme response, it would be reasonable to expect that it can't simply be just as bad as our worst recent flu season, but even worse than that, hence using the high flu death estimate. If not, then we would have taken these precautions years ago when we had a "bad" flu, which we didn't.

300 feels noteworthy to me....*if* I'm comparing to last year.

Again, the numbers just don't add up to the regular season's, regardless of how anyone feels about them. But more importantly, the flu wasn't a story on every news station every hour of every day in years past.

Further, in other threads, it's noted how flu deaths are often attributed even if only pneumonia, implying that flu counts could even be exaggerated.

The same can be claimed for Covid-19 deaths.

For me, the fact that the data simply hasn't born out even average flu numbers in the US is absolutely astonishing given the massive price we just paid.