High Risk Stock Trading

Discussion in 'The Ray Peat Forum Lounge' started by Cirion, Apr 10, 2019.

  1. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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    @Pdohlen

    Interesting. If the markets get more volatile as they might in the US and Europe soon, is this approach still feasible?
     
  2. Pdohlen

    Pdohlen Member

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    The strategy has survived very volatile periods.. 2000-2003, 2008.... worst period was actually bear market in 73-75ish. Market grinded down on low vol. This indicates of course that the strategy has room for improvements, although the risk of curve fitting is there.
    So, yes I would think it could do great going forward, but when it comes to trading and investing, nothing is certain. One might think one have a statistical edge, but its all correlation not causation.
     
  3. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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    thanks, agreed!
     
  4. Vicecaz

    Vicecaz Member

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    ??
    If you purchase a book with your bitcoins and the book is worth 15$, your payment is unlikely to be worth 200$. It would require a 1400% increase in bitcoin to be so. In a day the biggest fluctuations we’ve seen these past two years is 20%
    In the worst case scenario your payment will be worth 18$ , 12 if you’re lucky

    Lots of good comments in this thread but lots of ignorance too.
    Crypto doesn’t boils down to btc, there’s much more. Especially when it comes to fast/convenient transactions, disruptive tech and privacy

    There are scam and overhyped projects too and those that were present from 2016/2017 know the ROI was probably a once in a lifetime opportunity

    That said with the massive correction all year long last year, crypto was at a bi-yearly low 2 months ago. With the stock market being almost at its ATH, one would be silly not to dump some of its investment portfolio into serious projects

    Even if you don’t believe in crypto, and you’re a competent and experienced trader, there is a good opportunities and it’s an exciting market
    Keep in mind, however, that the majority cannot win
     
  5. Pdohlen

    Pdohlen Member

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    ixic.jpg
    As an example, given certain assumptions... The indices are by itself an excellent bet on the economy, and over the past 100 years nothing has been better. Cryptos an others are nothing more than lottery tickets in comparison. Control the risk and ride the waves of the globe printing machine....
     
  6. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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    That’s true but the thread is dedicated to lottery/high-risk no?

    If riding the indexes and markets well even that tends to get more complicated. Smart-Beta-EFS, Robo-Advisers and so forth try to outsmart the traditional indexes and habe their merits.
     
  7. Pdohlen

    Pdohlen Member

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    Fully agree, but having been a trader for so long, seeing the short term zero-sum game unfold- I realise that one continous edge is to be found in the expanding amount of money created, either through credits or printed by central banks. If you dig deeper and research the velocity of these, you wil realise that asset reprising has just started, and even with some volatility, the markets are bound to go higher en higher. So if risk are controlled - stay long.
    And my point beeing that if you control risk you can be exposed in a matter which makes an index investment similar to a bet on Cryptos.
     
  8. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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    Yup, thanks for sharing your experience here.

    Even in 2008/Lehman and 2012/Euro-crisis indexes rebounded rather quickly. DAX in Germany „crashed“ about 20% in December/January this year. It’s April now and it’s back from where the „crash“ started. Many panicked, even professional and institutional investors, but it was only a „political market“ influenced by US-China-Trade conflicts and Brexit uncertainty.
    Political markets are short lived is a trading-wisdom and there is much truth to it. You could grab value-titles for a 20% discount is whar it really was.

    Im not invested in them, but ETFs like Morningstar wide-moat that focus on values titles with intrinsic market advantages or the minimum volatile compositions by Ossiam seem a safe form of investment to mee with reasonably good ROI.

    As said I’m an ETFler with some ventures into stock-picking. Long is where my money is so I also put my mouth there
     
  9. Pdohlen

    Pdohlen Member

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    Likewise, and certainly YES we are in april. Google “stay out of the Markets from May through September...”.


    Agreed any asset can be a spice to a well diversified portfolio.

    One point is that the early wisdom of Livermore and other legends of the early 19th century is not really relevant after Bretton woods and the loss of a fixed point for value of money. I.e. gold standard. Now every thing is relative, and the central banks have been printing money/credit as mad since 2008. So indices is going to reflect the companies ability to transfers the cost of financing to the consumer. So if you want to hedge the future inflation you should be invested. Fix your mortgage And invest your surplus.

    Just stay max invested, otherwise you’re left at the platform
     
  10. tankasnowgod

    tankasnowgod Member

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    Well...... maybe. No doubt there were scam projects (looking at you Bticonnect and Centra), and sure, there was some overhype, but please, the stock market has MUTLIPLE cable channels designed to do nothing but hype that market (CNBC and Fox Business, cough cough). I've never heard a single good argument for why Tesla stock should be valued over one dollar, and it trades in the hundreds.

    But "once in a lifetime" opportunity" depends on your perspective. There are plenty of investments where you could make a 20x (or more) in 13 months (look at Amazon stock chart on that first pump), but more to the point, did you notice that when BTC was hovering around $4200 just in the past 30 days, it jumped over $1000 in less than an hour on a the recent pump?

    You likely won't get the same ROI on the same projects (but that's true in every investment, again, look at Amazon stock after that first pump), but as a new asset class that has so many advantages over previous assets? I don't think the opportunity has passed by.
     
  11. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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    Question to US-traders or those who trade there. Are there any good websites that provide chart-analyses for US indexes, ideally not only Dow but S&P and Nasdaq 100?

    How do you guys think the US-economy will develop this year with Corona and the election? More setbacks, more rebounds? Recession.

    Also, if someone got some experience here. How are US-REITS poised in the current uncertain market? Are there any that survive a potential recession if they hold a portfolio of business real estates of which some might bust this year?
     
  12. Gadsie

    Gadsie Member

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    When everyone is heading for the exits, it's your time to move in. I'd put most of your investment in a leveraged S&P ETF. SPXL or SSO. Don't be afraid and have some patience. Even if you invested in SSO (2x leveraged S&P) at the worst possible time (Oct 2007), you'd still be up a nice 138% right now. Investing right now would obviously not be the worst time, since we're down from all time high quite a bit. My advice is DCA into SSO and SOXL slowly starting right now. Don't miss out the 2008 buying opportunity again.
     
  13. Pdohlen

    Pdohlen Member

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    Check out SDYL... S&P dividend fund - 2*leveraged. 5%+ payout yield per anno before the correction. Down approx 40%.

    www.marketwatch.com has som nice charting options, in all asset classes.
     
  14. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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  15. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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    There was a „where to invest during Corona“-thread I think, can’t find it right now.

    Anyway, if you’re frustrated or angry because mandatory Covid-vaccination is coming or Big Pharma will make a nice Sars2-Profit on patentable medication -
    you might just as well mitigate your anger by atleast profiting a bit along with the devilish pedos and NWO-scum (enough Forum code?)

    So. Remdesivir gets shilled like mad in MSM.
    Stocks of Gilead soar accordingly. Might still leave a lot of potential for quick double-digit rises by itself or as a good leveraging choice.


    GlaxoSmithKline is the worlds biggest manufacturer of vaccine adjuvants and carriers. They seem to be heavily involved in Gates Foundations „research“.
    Pays a solid dividend too. Can’t see it not profiting.

    Many smaller enterprises that are involved in providing basic lab materials should be interesting. Testing, more testing and even more testing to come. Lots of material used in labs around the world

    Sartorius is a very solid and growing enterprises in that sector, sbout to buy that section of Danaher corp too
     
  16. S.Seneff

    S.Seneff Member

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    Did Amazon will reach to 4000 $ ?
     
  17. Gadsie

    Gadsie Member

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    Eventually, yes I think so
     
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