High Risk Stock Trading

[rei]

Because you save 3% in credit card costs.

 

[Makrosky]

Because you save 3% in credit card costs.

So I am a buyer and for saving a 3% for let's say a 2000usd watch sold at overstock.com I risk that in two months my btc could buy me two or three of the same watches? Or not that dramatic : that in a couple days my btc are worth a 4% less? So 1% loss. You see it makes no sense??

 

[Makrosky]

For the small purchases it is not worth the hassel and for big things even a 1% is A LOT of money.

I don't see it sorry.

 

[rei]

Well, keeping the money as USD guarantees a loss through inflation. So everyone makes their choices...

 

[Cirion]

3% is really nothing anyway when you consider Rewards credit cards like my southwest airlines rewards card that lets me take 1 or 2 free round trip flights a year. Even if that 3% was consistent, that's at best equal to what I'm already getting or even inferior. I have an amazon store card that gives me 5% back, and I order a lot from amazon, so that's even better than bitcoin if the only selling point for bitcoin is a 3% value.

 

[Makrosky]

Well, keeping the money as USD guarantees a loss through inflation. So everyone makes their choices...

It is controlled inflation man, we are not talking about Zimbawe here. And you can easily counteract the inflation putting the money into very conservative stocks, or government bonds or whatever.

 

[Makrosky]

Now the thing I can think of is for people in countries with no monetary stabilization, from Zimbawe to Argentina to Cuba and the like. But still... for the average joe... you still risk a massive price down of BTC or when youbwant to cash it back to any localncurrency you can expect taxes and stuff...

 

[Makrosky]

So yeah I see now a use for it, for these kind of countries. But I would rather buy some diamonds or silver and put it 10m underearth in the garden.

 

[Cirion]

Now the thing I can think of is for people in countries with no monetary stabilization, from Zimbawe to Argentina to Cuba and the like. But still... for the average joe... you still risk a massive price down of BTC or when youbwant to cash it back to any localncurrency you can expect taxes and stuff...

Now that seems like a valid point. There are many countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela that have OBSCENE inflation. Last I heard, doesn't a loaf of bread cost 1 trillion local currency in Zimbabwe?

 

[Makrosky]

Now that seems like a valid point. There are many countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela that have OBSCENE inflation. Last I heard, doesn't a loaf of bread cost 1 trillion local currency in Zimbabwe?

But you know what Cirion? If I was in a country like that and I wanted to save my money, I would rarher buy a diamond. If things go bad in your country you can put it up your ****, take a plane to London or Brusels, sell it to a jewish jeweler and get your money in a safe currency like EUR or GBP.

 

[rei]

3% is really nothing anyway when you consider Rewards credit cards like my southwest airlines rewards card that lets me take 1 or 2 free round trip flights a year. Even if that 3% was consistent, that's at best equal to what I'm already getting or even inferior. I have an amazon store card that gives me 5% back, and I order a lot from amazon, so that's even better than bitcoin if the only selling point for bitcoin is a 3% value.

If you tie yourself to one shop then why not use bitcoin at that? purse.io lets you trade bitcoin for amazon orders and you get 10-50% discount

 

[Cirion]

If you tie yourself to one shop then why not use bitcoin at that? purse.io lets you trade bitcoin for amazon orders and you get 10-50% discount

Ok well 50% discount, now we're talking. I don't know anything about that. It sounds worth looking into though.

 

[tankasnowgod]

But you know what Cirion? If I was in a country like that and I wanted to save my money, I would rarher buy a diamond. If things go bad in your country you can put it up your ****, take a plane to London or Brusels, sell it to a jewish jeweler and get your money in a safe currency like EUR or GBP.

You could do the same thing with Cryptos, and you wouldn't even have to potentially aggravate your GI tract with a foreign object.

 

[tankasnowgod]

Now the thing I can think of is for people in countries with no monetary stabilization, from Zimbawe to Argentina to Cuba and the like. But still... for the average joe... you still risk a massive price down of BTC or when youbwant to cash it back to any localncurrency you can expect taxes and stuff...

Ah, "Monetary Stabilization." That's a nice sounding way of saying "The Taxpayers are Forced To Bail Out The Bankers." Or "The Markets are Rigged."

 

[LeeLemonoil]

In a more practical sense, if there will ever be a similar Bitcoin-rise as 2 years ago, you can always jump on the bandwagon when the tendency is reasonably clear and still take in huge profits. Maybe not like if you speculated when it was at the bottom ... but many people 2 years ago made good gains weeks into the bitcoin rise ... even a few days before the peak. The gains are not extreme but neither would the risks be

 

[LeeLemonoil]

I think if Bitcoin ever shows serious signs of going up seriously again, FOMO would be a huge factor - almost a guarantee that an value-explosion will occur. Everybody now remembers the last time - FOMO will be ridiculous

 

[Makrosky]

You could do the same thing with Cryptos, and you wouldn't even have to potentially aggravate your GI tract with a foreign object.

We are going in circles here tanka? What part of tomorrow your BTC can be worth half its value you don't want to accept?
Diamonds :

I would risk my GI tract.

 

[tankasnowgod]

We are going in circles here tanka? What part of tomorrow your BTC can be worth half its value you don't want to accept?
Diamonds :

I would risk my GI tract.

Then put it in a Stable Coin like TUSD or USDC. Boom, still no problem with orafices.

By the way, if you are going to attach a chart talking about potential daily losses, you should not attach yearly chart to make your point.

 

[Makrosky]

Then put it in a Stable Coin like TUSD or USDC. Boom, still no problem with orafices.

By the way, if you are going to attach a chart talking about potential daily losses, you should not attach yearly chart to make your point.

You get the idea man... no need to go to such fine details.

Anyway I didn't know about USDC. I'll have to look at it.

 

[Pdohlen]

I have been testing long-only strategy on Nasdaq from 1971 until today. CAGR unlevered 11%, not bad at all. If you apply a volatility filter to this and add leverage you can up this to almost 30% pro anno.
More specifically:
In a low volatile period, go long with 5*leverage, i.e. if you start with 10k capital, get an exposure to Nasdaq for 50k.
Run a spreadsheet and keep note on closing quotes for Nasdaq. Continually calculate standard deviation (stdev) for the previous 10days. If Stdev goes above 1.1 - half your position. If stdev goes above 1.7 close the rest of your positions.
When stdev goes below 1.7 again - > reenter with half (2.5*leverage), and when it goes below 1.1 go into full exposure again -> 5*leverage.

On average you would make approximately two trades a month, scaling adjusting positions, controlling your exposure to fit the current risk aversion/tolerance seen in the market. When tolerance is low, volatility rises, and you scale down.