ecstatichamster
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Thank You for this information.....I enjoy the Barnes/Frei exchanges and absolutely loath Dershowitz attacks upon our freedom as regards vaccinations, but his arguments can be stopped...Robert Barnes / VivaFrei and Dershowitz are going to have a debate on this too, upcoming on VivaFrei's youtube channel.
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Look at the trial data. The groups were something like 22,000 apiece. They only made that claim off of 95-160 cases of COVID, total. 95% of "Covid" cases happened in the placebo group. They were using PCR tests that have their own issues, but still.
And there's no true "Placebo" group, I think the other group got the meningitis vaccine.
So, there were something like 150 cases in the meningitis vaccine group vs. 10 in the experimental mRNA so called "Covid" vaccine group. But doing the math, you still had 21,850 people in BOTH groups that didn't test positive for COVID, and 10 in both groups who did. This is more like a 0.3-0.5% effectiveness, if it's even statistically significant. And, apparently, the trials are still ongoing. So that "effectiveness" number could change.
What Vaccine Trials?
Iain Davis COVID 19 vaccine trials appear to have caused some confusion. Hopefully, this article might help clear things up a bit. People genuinely appear to believe that the COVID 19 vaccines have…off-guardian.org
okay so to simplify I'm going to use a thought experiment.
20,000 get the vaccine
20,000 get a placebo
100 people in placebo group get Covid
5 of the people in the vaccine group get Covid.
Is that the basis for 95%?
That would be massively significant. In fact, it would probably be the biggest difference of any health intervention in history.Your point is a good one, that the number of people who got Covid was very very small compared to the number in the test group, and therefore the 100 people (in my thought experiment which I think is pretty close to the "real" trials) is not significant statistically. Sure it is 95%, but the significance is probably near zero.
If 10,000 people got Covid in the placebo group, and only 500 people got it in the vaccine group, that would be significant, yes?
Covid-19 vaccine candidate is unimpressive: NNTV is around 256 | The BMJ
Dear Editor
Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.” (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4347, November 9) Specific data are not given but it is easy enough to approximate the numbers involved, based on the 94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039). The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them……We’ve already heard that an early effect of the vaccine is “like a hangover or the flu.” Will vaccinees who are later exposed to coronaviruses have more severe illness as a result of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection (ADEI), a known hazard of coronavirus vaccines? Is there squalene in the Pfizer vaccine? If so, will vaccinees be subject to autoimmune diseases, like Gulf War Syndrome and narcolepsy that have been associated with the adjuvant?
We already know that current Covid-19 vaccine trials are unlikely to show a reduction in severe illness or deaths. (Doshi, BMJ 2020;371:m4037, October 21) Will they be like seasonal influenza vaccines, which have not proved to be lifesavers, and may even have increased overall mortality in the elderly? (Anderson et al, Ann Intern Med 2020;172:445) We need a lot more time and a lot more data, especially in view of massive uncertainties about Covid-19 case definitions and statistics.
ALLAN S. CUNNINGHAM 13 November 2020
Competing interests: No competing interests
13 November 2020
Allan S. Cunningham
Retired pediatrician
Yep, that's the whole basis. And that difference could be massively reduced or even entirely wiped out if the trials went on for a few more months.
That would be massively significant. In fact, it would probably be the biggest difference of any health intervention in history.
that is very observant. Nice findBtw, there is something much more revealing in the Pfizer trial that I did not catch until now. The trial started on July 27, 2020 and lasted until August 25, 2020. Basically 28 days. The total number of reported COVID-19 cases in the US on July 27, 2020 was 15,739,150. The total number of reported cases on August 25, 2020 was 22,934,522. So total new cases for that period in the US was 7,195,732, which comes down to about 2.2% new cases against the total US population for that period. Here is where I am getting the numbers for those statements.
The Covid-19 Tracker
As the virus that causes Covid-19 spreads worldwide, this dashboard offers a snapshot of confirmed cases by geographic location. Click a country name to get a more detailed geographic breakdown at the state, province, or county level. Learn more.www.statnews.com
Now, the placebo (or meningitis vaccine) group in the Pfizer trial got just 150 new cases out of a group size of almost 22000, so that's about 0.6% new cases for the non-vaccinated trial participants. Why is the infection rate of the placebo group in the trial more than 3 times lower than the infection rate in the general population for the same time period?!? There are two options here:
1) If the placebo group infection rate is taken as the more reliable number then the official numbers reported in the media about COVID-19 cases in the US is potentially inflated/misreported by at least a factor of 3. This means the actual COVID-19 case count for the US is about 6.85mil for entire 2020, compared to the 35.5mil flu cases in 2019. Even assuming mortality rate 3-4 times higher for COVID-19 based on these numbers we still get about the same total mortality numbers between COVID-19 and the flu.
2) If the official COVID-19 cases are taken as the more reliable number then the group selection/randomization for the trial was poor and the groups are not good representatives of the general population. As such, the trial results are invalid.
Neither one is a palatable option for the powers that be, but I don't see how this can be explained away. We should be watching the numbers for the other vaccine trials and if they are just as skewed as the Pfizer numbers then it adds even more to the pile of evidence that this whole thing is a scam.
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