ELI5: Help me demolish the claim that covid vaccines are 95% effective

Tim Lundeen

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that is very observant. Nice find
Infection rate depends more on your immune health than anything else. The people selected for the vaccine trials were extremely healthy, and they already have herd immunity (and then some) to COVID-19. The vaccine trials demonstrate conclusively that healthy people don't need the vaccine.
 
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ecstatichamster
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the difficult thing to refute is "95% effective" when only a tiny number supposedly get the Covid in the trial. I guess that's the bottom line. Very nefarious public relations, isn't it? The significance is difficult to refute, at least for me.
 

boris

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@haidut Great catch, thanks. Peat mentionend in a recent interview that they excluded allergic people and older people, and yet ironically people in old age homes are supposed to be the first ones to receive the vaccine:

...based on a research study my team and I have conducted, older adults, particularly those in their 70s and 80s, may be systematically excluded from the clinical trials necessary to develop and test them.
And yet, those same people are the group hardest hit by the pandemic. Adults 65 and older currently account for 40% of the hospitalized cases and over 80% of the deaths related to Covid-19.




The chief of the german equivalent CDC already announced that a lot of old people will die after the vaccination campaign, but that we shouldn't make conclusions too fast, because "people die every day and have underlying conditions". Interesting how that logic doesn't apply to COVID for him. @Giraffe




@ecstatichamster I think people who were already immune to coronaviruses were not exluded from the trial, there could easily be more of those people in the vaccine group to create a favourable outcome.
 

Giraffe

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The chief of the german equivalent CDC already announced that a lot of old people will die after the vaccination campaign, but that we shouldn't make conclusions too fast, because "people die every day and have underlying conditions". Interesting how that logic doesn't apply to COVID for him.
And the CDC that was not able or willing to standardize the PCR-test is telling us that adverse effects of the so-called vaccine will be monitored.
 

amd

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2) If the official COVID-19 cases are taken as the more reliable number then the group selection/randomization for the trial was poor and the groups are not good representatives of the general population. As such, the trial results are invalid.

Heated Vaccine Debate - Kennedy Jr. vs Dershowitz

"The people that they test them on are not typical Americans. They use what they call exclusionary criteria, they are only giving these vaccines, in these tests that they're doing, to the healthiest people.

If you look at their exclusionary criteria, you cannot be pregnant, you cannot be overweight, you must have never smoked a cigarette, you must have never vaped, you must have no respiratory problems in your family, you can't suffer asthma, you can't have diabetes, you can't have rheumatoid arthritis, or autoimmune disease, there has to be no history of seizure in the family.

There are the people they are testing the vaccine on, but that's not who they're going to give them to.

These people are like The Avengers, they're like Superman. You can shoot them with a bullet and they won't go down.

What happens when they give them to the typical American, you know, Sally six-pack and Joe bag-of-donuts, who's 50 pounds overweight and has diabetes? What is going to happen then? You're not going to see 20%. You're going to see a lot of people dropping death.

These people lost consciousness, they had to go to the hospital, they had huge fevers. And they're the healthiest people in the world.

Any other medicine that had that kind of profile in its original phase-one study would be DOA."

Note: Subjects tested on for other vaccines were monitored for side effects for between 48 hours and 4 days.
 
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boris

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@fico
A few do get included (or slip through the cracks) but they don’t fare well.

Page 43
A total of six deaths occurred in the reporting period (2 deaths in the vaccine group, 4 in placebo). In the vaccine group, one participant with baseline obesity and pre-existing atherosclerosis died 3 days after Dose 1,...

@ecstatichamster Yeah, I think Peat mentionend immune people being accepted into the trials in one of the last interviews, but I don‘t remember where he said it.
 

tankasnowgod

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Now, the placebo (or meningitis vaccine) group in the Pfizer trial got just 150 new cases out of a group size of almost 22000, so that's about 0.6% new cases for the non-vaccinated trial participants. Why is the infection rate of the placebo group in the trial more than 3 times lower than the infection rate in the general population for the same time period?!? There are two options here:

1) If the placebo group infection rate is taken as the more reliable number then the official numbers reported in the media about COVID-19 cases in the US is potentially inflated/misreported by at least a factor of 3. This means the actual COVID-19 case count for the US is about 6.85mil for entire 2020, compared to the 35.5mil flu cases in 2019. Even assuming mortality rate 3-4 times higher for COVID-19 based on these numbers we still get about the same total mortality numbers between COVID-19 and the flu.

I think option one is highly likely, even with all the issues surrounding the PCR and COVID tests, and all the false positives they generate. I would think the Placebo/Meningitis vaccine group would be just as subject to the false positive rate as the general pop.

Sharyl Attkisson reported in the 2009 that the CDC was vastly over reporting Swine Flu infections-


Jon Rappoport then reports that the CDC made up even bigger numbers to help cover up their own over reporting-


"But that wasn’t end of it. The CDC wanted to commit another crime. About three weeks after Attkisson’s findings were published on the CBS News website, the CDC, obviously in a panic, decided to double down. If one lie is exposed, tell an even bigger one. A much bigger one.

Here, from a November 12, 2009, WebMD article is the CDC’s response: “Shockingly, 14 million to 34 million U.S. residents — the CDC’s best guess is 22 million — came down with H1N1 swine flu by Oct. 17 [2009].” (“22 million cases of Swine Flu in US,” by Daniel J. DeNoon)."

So, for Swine Flu, the CDC upped their estimate to as many as 34 Million. And in the decade or so since, that number seems to have about doubled again. I keep on seeing estimates on Social Media that there were "60 Million cases of Swine Flu in the US." Apparently, even Mike Pence claimed that-

Fact Check: Mike Pence Says 60 Million Americans Got Swine Flu

How long before there were more cases of Swine Flu in 2009 than the total US population?
 
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Jstar

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It comes down to wording / misdirection.. The first question to ask when the media reports that the vaccine is 95% effective, or more correctly put, has 95% efficacy, is: 95% effective at what? 95% effective at preventing you from getting covid-19, from preventing you from “catching the virus”? No. 95% effective at preventing you from “spreading the virus” to others? No. 95% effective at reducing your chance of dying? No. ... It’s supposedly 95% effective at preventing a person from displaying certain symptoms, which is the clinically defined disease. And what are the symptoms? Fever, cough, headache, etc. Oftentimes, in people who are not that healthy, whose system cannot deal with toxins without displaying symptom, symptoms are necessary. So artificially preventing symptoms, especially minor ones, is of no benefit. (And, of course, a large number of symptoms were brought about by the vaccine, 10%-15% of the vaccine participant, but they were not included counted as “clinical disease.”)

This is clearly the case of “lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

Fauci said, “And that’s the primary endpoint of most of the virus (i.,e, vaccines)—it’s to prevent clinical disease, to prevent symptomatic disease, not necessarily to prevent infection”
 

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