Determining Effect Of Diet On Metabolism And Weight Loss/Gain Through Data Collection

Cirion

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I decided to make this its own thread because I was kind of hijacking another guys' thread (Sorry Amarsh!) and also to help consolidate information/data/thoughts.

The premise is from personal experimentation, I believe there is a strong link between diet and food choices, and metabolism and weight gain (or loss) also, and I intend to find the links through personal data collection and experimentation. I do not have enough data to make 100% conclusive statements yet, but I have enough data to at least make some interesting plots to spark some further investigation and debate. I also acknowledge that linear plots like these will not be fully conclusive. Later, with more data, I intend to make multi-dimensional plots that account for the interaction effects between parameters and determine what 20% parameters to tweak to get 80% of the metabolism benefits. My main hypothesis is that you can use Water weight change on a day-to-day basis to get a window of stress and metabolism. Ray Peat wrote about water weight and that excess water weight typically correlates to estrogen and other stressors in the body, so that's why this is my working theory. So, I'm using weight gain or loss on a daily basis as an indicator of metabolism.

All plots are from measured data from my own personal dietary manipulations.

Usually, and historically, people would just take a calories plot like this

upload_2019-5-22_12-7-48.png
And take that and say 4000 calories is the cutoff point for weight gain or loss. Well, I propose a different theory, that you can increase your max calorie threshold via dietary manipulation and thus improve metabolism and lose weight more easily and in a more healthy manner than simple caloric restriction methods. That was inspired after noticing the huge scatter of data in the calories plot. Historically people thought that water weight change is completely random and not quantifiable, but I disagree and intend to prove that there is no random-ness in water weight changes, and you absolutely can quantify it. The body is complex, to be sure, but it's not random.

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Cirion

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S-VV

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Nice graphs.

If you could add the R^2 values it would be great to see how well the model fits
 

Cirion

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Nice graphs.

If you could add the R^2 values it would be great to see how well the model fits

I certainly can. Though the R^2 for most the charts probably won't be super terrific, because these linear plots miss alot of the inter-active effects, so I acknowledge they just give a "First Look" at what's going on. The real fun will be when I make the R^2 fits better, by looking at things at greater detail and thus getting better fits. You'll note many points that seem out of place as a result. For example cases of high sfa/pufa resulting in weight gain, high sugar:starch resulting in weight gain and so forth. These are not "outliers" in my opinion though, and not random either. In fact, for example in the case of high sfa/pufa resulting in weight gain, it was also a day I had too much total fat and also too much protein. But, without enough data, this claim of course isn't provable without a shadow of doubt, but I am like 95-99% confident in some of these trends like tryptophan causing weight gain reliably and also lowering metabolism, and is exactly what Ray has also written about. I find the temperature vs. weight changes fascinating too. It also is trending towards what I've always thought, that higher waking temperatures (usually) means better metabolism and thus trends towards weight loss. Another reason why caloric restriction shoots you in the foot ultimately, because you can not maintain high 98F waking temperatures on caloric restriction diets (Chronic dieters often have temperatures in the 96-97F or even 95F range).

SO far the ONLY thing that has shocked me is the Calcium:Phosphorus ratio showing an OPPOSITE trend as expected from Ray Peat's articles. However, I'm not yet ready to say that calcium causes weight gain, even as a first look, and that's because high calcium foods are usually also high in tryptophan, confounding the results. To be less confounding, I'd need to eat high calcium veggies and/or supplement eggshell calcium or something. What IS somewhat conclusive, is that using dairy for your calcium needs is probably not a good idea... at least if you're hypothyroid.
 
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Cirion

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Just made a new plot, Fernstrom Ratio times Total Protein intake. My hypothesis is that protein is more damaging when fernstrom ratio is higher, but excess protein (even gelatin) is also harmful due to ammonia. Introducing the Fernstrom Ratio x Protein plot.

upload_2019-5-22_14-56-21.png

Sure enough, this actually has an even better trendline than just fernstrom ratio! All points, with zero exceptions, result in weight gain when this # is above 7.
 

S-VV

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Thanks for including R^2.

Looking forward to the multivariate analysis!
 

Cirion

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Here's a fun chart I just put together.

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The message of this chart is that there is a narrow band of calories that can result in a perfect waking temp of 98.6 (If you follow the rules like low PUFA, low fernstrom, etc), which, as I suspected, is at roughly 4000 calories. For me, then, this is the threshold at which too much more tends to cause endotoxin, ammonia, other problems and thus water -> fat gain, and any less is not enough energy for my body which also causes problems like lack of glucose -> drop in body temp also.
 

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sladerunner69

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Just made a new plot, Fernstrom Ratio times Total Protein intake. My hypothesis is that protein is more damaging when fernstrom ratio is higher, but excess protein (even gelatin) is also harmful due to ammonia. Introducing the Fernstrom Ratio x Protein plot.

View attachment 13281

Sure enough, this actually has an even better trendline than just fernstrom ratio! All points, with zero exceptions, result in weight gain when this # is above 7.

Actually 2 of the points indicate no weight gain.

Also in terms of data science, I don't believe there are enough observations to draw reliable conclusions. Still interesting to surmise from, though.

I'm particularly intrigued by your thoughts on tryptophan preventing weightloss, as many people here use milk/dairy as their main protein source, and many peaters also experience unflattering weightgain. If this is true, that tryptophan heavily promotes serotonin synthesis, then why would it be that so many report getting high temperatures and weight loss from milk, while others do not? @tca300 for example, drinks essentially nothing but milk in his diet, and has been able to lose fat and stay lean.
 

Cirion

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Actually 2 of the points indicate no weight gain.

Also in terms of data science, I don't believe there are enough observations to draw reliable conclusions. Still interesting to surmise from, though.

I'm particularly intrigued by your thoughts on tryptophan preventing weightloss, as many people here use milk/dairy as their main protein source, and many peaters also experience unflattering weightgain. If this is true, that tryptophan heavily promotes serotonin synthesis, then why would it be that so many report getting high temperatures and weight loss from milk, while others do not? @tca300 for example, drinks essentially nothing but milk in his diet, and has been able to lose fat and stay lean.

Tryptophan is absolutely a disaster for most but probably not all people. Most people convert tryptophan into serotonin. The answer as to why some people can tolerate it is actually quite simple. And usually you find it is people already healthy that can tolerate tryptophan. In that scenario, the tryptophan converts into niacin, and not serotonin. Ironically, in this scenario, tryptophan can be metabolism inducing. Which, is one of my suspicions as to why Ray Peat speaks favorably towards milk. IF YOU'RE ALREADY HEALTHY. Not if you're not healthy already. Also, milk can be okay, if it's raw milk, and especially freshly milked raw milk. Also others like waremu and ilikecats here on these forums did not tolerate milk well at first but later did. I have observed what others here drink in regards to milk. If you notice, almost EVERY person here who does thrive off of milk, are all drinking raw milk and not garbage commercially farmed milk.

@Hans though is quite healthy, and even he has noted that milk was causing fat gain for him. For what that's worth.
 

sladerunner69

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Tryptophan is absolutely a disaster for most but probably not all people. Most people convert tryptophan into serotonin. The answer as to why some people can tolerate it is actually quite simple. And usually you find it is people already healthy that can tolerate tryptophan. In that scenario, the tryptophan converts into niacin, and not serotonin. Ironically, in this scenario, tryptophan can be metabolism inducing. Which, is one of my suspicions as to why Ray Peat speaks favorably towards milk. IF YOU'RE ALREADY HEALTHY. Not if you're not healthy already. Also, milk can be okay, if it's raw milk, and especially freshly milked raw milk. Also others like waremu and ilikecats here on these forums did not tolerate milk well at first but later did. I have observed what others here drink in regards to milk. If you notice, almost EVERY person here who does thrive off of milk, are all drinking raw milk and not garbage commercially farmed milk.

@Hans though is quite healthy, and even he has noted that milk was causing fat gain for him. For what that's worth.

That "almost EVERY person here... *is* drinking raw milk" I just don't see that as being the case. There was poll done a couple years back, surveying what type of milk was most popular on the forum. The vast majority of users were using either organic lowfat, or conventional lowfat. I know of a significant number of people who drink conventional lowfat/nonfat, up to a gallon each day and claim that it is pro-metabolic and heat inducing. @tca300, @DaveFoster, @haidut all drink milk by the supermarket gallon full, and there are plenty others to boot.

I do think the tryptophan and estrogen content is concerning, though. Perhaps you're right in that these people on the forum all have strong metabolisms to begin with, and so the stress effects are mitigated.
 

Cirion

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Still trying to track down the finer details. Did some more data assessment today. Filtered data down to those days which temps were > 98.4F AND either no weight was gained, or weight was lost.

Calories between 3700-4100 (just like I thought, somewhere in the 4000 ish range for calories)
Protein between 100-200 (wide range, seems like)
Tryptophan between 0.6-1.0g ( which definitely points towards low Tryptophan)
Carbs between 700-800 gram (now starting to get more interesting, a more narrow band)
Fats between 17-62 gram (much like protein, it seems there is some "leeway" here...)
Sugar/Starch ratio, 2.25-5:1 .. fair bit of leeway, but with minimum of 2:1 or so
PUFA < 3.7 grams

The "medal" goes to the 141 gram protein, 24 gram fat day, 800 gram carb, with 0.6 gram tryptophan, 5:1 sugar to starch ratio, very low fernstrom (0.024), with a waking temp of 98.8F as a result and 2 lbs lost and 3800 calories. Oh also 1.9 gram PUFA.

So, surprising and not surprising at the same time, some parameters seem to have a narrower band than others, leading one to believe that indeed, some parameters do indeed impact the results more than others, while others, with a wider band, seem to have a minimum. It seems calories, tryptophan, and carbs have the strictest ranges so far, with some leeway between protein and fats, seemingly. Looks like my body likes to have 700-800 gram of carbs.

As always though, the more data I get, the better. I'm still only at about 50-60 data points total, so stay tuned.
 
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lampofred

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Have you found any correlations with sodium intake?

Asking because I'm too lazy to do something like this myself... Thanks for doing this.
 

jamies33

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Most people convert tryptophan into serotonin... [in healthy people] tryptophan converts into niacin, and not serotonin.
This is it, and if youre converting to serotonin, Peat's gelatin recommendation should be observed.

Also, I think Ca:P (and, really, all of Peat's advice) promotes anabolism, which could explain weight gain on milk, aside from serotonin.

ALSO also, it may be worth making a solid:liquid vs. weight change graph. Liquid foods (especially all-liquid meals, like a large glass of milk alone...) will tend to promote serotonin, as well.
 

Cirion

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Have you found any correlations with sodium intake?

Asking because I'm too lazy to do something like this myself... Thanks for doing this.

I want to do some trend assessments for sodium but that's hard to do because I often sprinkle salt on starch or meat and don't really measure it out so I honestly have no idea how much I am getting. I know it definitely matters though.
 

Cirion

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This is it, and if youre converting to serotonin, Peat's gelatin recommendation should be observed.

Also, I think Ca:P (and, really, all of Peat's advice) promotes anabolism, which could explain weight gain on milk, aside from serotonin.

ALSO also, it may be worth making a solid:liquid vs. weight change graph. Liquid foods (especially all-liquid meals, like a large glass of milk alone...) will tend to promote serotonin, as well.

Oh trust me I abuse the heck out of gelatin these days. But when you run the numbers, gelatin is NOT enough to counter-act the tryptophan, if tryptophan heavy foods like milk are your main protein sources. At best you might reduce, let's say, a Fernstrom ratio of 0.06 to like 0.05 or something... Just to make up a #. 0.05 is still very high, and many days I am that high results in weight gain and temperature drop.

I do have liquid intake as a variable. However, I haven't filled out the column yet with enough data so not anything really to plot there yet.

Peat has said that water does NOT increase serotonin - IF you couple it with sufficient salt. I doubt most people are drinking salted milk and salted OJ =P
 

jamies33

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Oh trust me I abuse the heck out of gelatin these days. But when you run the numbers, gelatin is NOT enough to counter-act the tryptophan, if tryptophan heavy foods like milk are your main protein sources. At best you might reduce, let's say, a Fernstrom ratio of 0.06 to like 0.05 or something... Just to make up a #. 0.05 is still very high, and many days I am that high results in weight gain and temperature drop.

I do have liquid intake as a variable. However, I haven't filled out the column yet with enough data so not anything really to plot there yet.

Peat has said that water does NOT increase serotonin - IF you couple it with sufficient salt.
Salted milk does not sound tasty
 

Cirion

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Quote from HAIDUT:
Amino Acid Supplementation For People With Poor Digestion

Note 2. Protein is a “Dirty” and inefficient way to get energy… Sensible energy acquisition is by way of carbohydrates primarily, and fats secondarily.
Other typical protein sources; milk, soy, casein or whey (the main proteins found in most protein supplements), only provide an average of 16% NNU. This means that only 16% of their constituent amino acids act as precursors of BPS (What your body wants) . Meanwhile, the remaining 84% are catabolized, thus releasing nitrogen catabolites (What the body does not benefit from).

84% of the proteins from milk is wasted, on top of all the tryptophan you get. I just don't see how Peat recommends milk. There are too many problems with it.
 

Ron J

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@Cirion
I use spoons to measure the amount of salt per day that I dissolve in a small amount of water. Instead of salting milk/water, you can simply take some of the dissolved salt right after ingesting the liquids.
 

lampofred

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Cirion

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Still trying to nail down the right % macro breakdown. I found out the plots are a bit more interesting if I filter down to calories intaken between 3700-4300 as this is in the range I'm interested in (4000 calories). Seems to suggest roughly 70-75% calories from carbs, 15-20% from protein, and 10-15% from fats.

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