Covid-19 Models And Predictions

[Peatogenic]

Not might, the vast majority simply have not been tested. It is just extrapolations from say 1-2 cases from a certain geographical area. That's what got the person starting the thread suspicious - i.e. how can Italy have tested 200K+ people considering there are not enough machines in the country to run all of those tests (the test accuracy assumption is a whole separate issue). One relevant quote from the thread by an Italian person (at least he claims so in another thread):
"...Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically. One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid."

...and another relevant quote from the same HN thread:

"...From the source, translated: "During the sixteenth week of 2019 mortality was lower than expected, with a daily average of 190 deaths compared to the expected 200." Read Italian news from the past few years regarding then northern region; the numbers of geriatric deaths -- far in excess of other EU members -- has been a long-running scandal. More data here: Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) - ScienceDirect
I trust you've read the recent Telegraph article revealing that only 12% of reported Italian covid deaths could be directly attributed to covid."

But then why are all the old people dropping like flies? There's clearly ...something...going on. "Directly attributed" is odd....as in, they died of COVID only...and the others had COVID and 1-3 other conditions?

 

[Scenes]

@haidut @tankasnowgod
Yeah it all seems fishy but are we really all under the control of some global governmental conspiracy to change world order here?? Seems very far-fetched...

More likely, it has all just snowballed out of control due to China’s overreaction to it and the inaccurate testing and numbers coming from there. Governments around the world have had their hand forced...you can’t be the country that didn’t shut down and let x number of people die.

Having said that, why are we hearing all this coming out of Italy? What’s the story with the lack of respirators?

On a more personal note, all my friends think I’m bonkers and ignoring the obvious data...how does one even begin to share this stuff?

 

[Progesterone]

What the..

 

[Peatogenic]

@haidut @tankasnowgod
Yeah it all seems fishy but are we really all under the control of some global governmental conspiracy to change world order here?? Seems very far-fetched...

More likely, it has all just snowballed out of control due to China’s overreaction to it and the inaccurate testing and numbers coming from there. Governments around the world have had their hand forced...you can’t be the country that didn’t shut down and let x number of people die.

Having said that, why are we hearing all this coming out of Italy? What’s the story with the lack of respirators?

On a more personal note, all my friends think I’m bonkers and ignoring the obvious data...how does one even begin to share this stuff?

This seems more likely to me as well.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

This seems more likely to me as well.

Not unlikely, yes. The problem is that if so, those who got swept away in destrcuctive actionism will in the future with all means try to deflect any responsibilty, leading to
furhter catasrophic measures. also, never underestimates the opportunistic abilities of powerful circles to seize the moment. Something "financial2 is defeitely going on.

@tupolev 's opinion is worth considering:

 

[JudiBlueHen]

I'm not surprised - I would guess Italy has a more effective health system.
[I also added to the post above, not sure if you saw.]

Thanks - that ECDC source is amazing.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

It's simpler and less conspiratorial than that. All over the world governments and corporate elites spent the last 25 years building up unsustainable debt, because it kept working out very well at the time for those involved. This includes your unionized American school teacher and German teacher with a totally unpayable pension, just as much as JP Morgan executives and CCP elites.

There was a hiccup in 2008, but they choked the engine and got the debt spigot spewing again. Now the bill is really coming due. And it can't be paid. The bond and currency market action right now is showing all the old patterns breaking down. No way can the 2008/2009 fiscal and monetary restart be done again. All the national governments are flat broke. China/Japan/USA/EU all broke. They're going to be forced to massively cut budgets in the face of a bad recession.

In exactly the same way these people acted similarly in running up insane debts, they're all acting the same way now to use the virus as an excuse and smokescreen. It's not a conspiracy. It's emergent correlated behavior that makes perfect sense and requires no coordination. It's what I would do, wouldn't you?

China's debt collapse is the most dangerous situation. I worry that as things spiral out of control there they'll do something stupid like invade Taiwan to distract their population from the domestic crises. Technically the USA is on the hook to defend Taiwan. But even if we did nothing there's a real chance Japan would spring to action. Either way it's a total global shitshow.

 

[Peatogenic]

Not unlikely, yes. The problem is that if so, those who got swept away in destrcuctive actionism will in the future with all means try to deflect any responsibilty, leading to
furhter catasrophic measures. also, never underestimates the opportunistic abilities of powerful circles to seize the moment. Something "financial2 is defeitely going on

Right, just solidifying both a perception that the virus is not as significant as is being perceived by Gov....*as well as* a perception that it's not being orchestrated, but rather a perfect storm mistake in policy due to somewhat understandable lack of understanding about viruses and the data in general. It kind of clicked when I realized how little Gov understands how to interpret the Flu. Add to that the variables that supposedly make COVID different than the Flu and there's the perfect storm.

 

[schultz]

I'm not saying this is or isn't just like the flu, but imagine if the media and world reported and had a stat counter for every flu death each year and it was all that was on the news. It would make the flu appear catastrophic.

The estimates for last season by the CDC for the US were 647,000 hospitalized and 61,200 dead, and the 2017/2018 season was worse. Last season started in November, peaked in February and petered off in April. Most of the activity was from week 4 to week 14 (Feb and March), so it was not spread out evenly over 6 months. If half of the deaths landed between week 4 and 14 that would be roughly 2,700 deaths per week. Now imagine if the media reported on all those deaths like they are with COVID-19.

According to worldometer there are currently 15,321 deaths total from covid-19 worldwide, 458 from the US.

Yes I know people are panicking more because the virus is apparently easier to spread, potentially has a higher death rate, and can cause younger people to not be able to breath, which could overwhelm hospitals.

 

[haidut]

@haidut @tankasnowgod
Yeah it all seems fishy but are we really all under the control of some global governmental conspiracy to change world order here?? Seems very far-fetched...

More likely, it has all just snowballed out of control due to China’s overreaction to it and the inaccurate testing and numbers coming from there. Governments around the world have had their hand forced...you can’t be the country that didn’t shut down and let x number of people die.

Having said that, why are we hearing all this coming out of Italy? What’s the story with the lack of respirators?

On a more personal note, all my friends think I’m bonkers and ignoring the obvious data...how does one even begin to share this stuff?

Well, in terms of sharing the data - most of what has been posted on the forum is actual data, so there should be no problem sharing it. However, judging from my friends and other people around me, even if it is something objective it probably would still get you labelled as a nut. Most people are too afraid of thinking about alternative scenarios and "what if" so they stick to the official story and may even become violent against dissenters.
As far as the conspiracy - I don't think the virus itself is a conspiracy. However, the response to it is bizarre and it is quite obvious that quarantining entire countries or shutting down entire economies is making things worse. It is also quite obvious at this point that powerful interests are using the virus to get preferential treatment and even get another bailout at the taxpayer expense. So, while the virus itself MAY be a natural (and thus uncontrolled) event the response to it does not make any sense until you notice that it benefits disproportionately certain groups. As one politician said in the past "never let a crisis go to waste".
The argument about lack of quarantine would overwhelm health systems does not make sense considering that the alternative being implemented (shutting down the entire country) destroys much more than the health system and creates long term problems that nobody really can anticipate or knows how to solve.
Have you seen the statements on TV by large companies, banks, sports venues, etc begging the federal government to shut them down? Why would any private business ask for such a thing knowing it would mean potential failure of the business as a whole. Only one reason - the shutdown order would result in a financial injection/bailout (probably without any strings attached) that is worth more to the business than continuing to operate as usual.

 

[haidut]

But then why are all the old people dropping like flies? There's clearly ...something...going on. "Directly attributed" is odd....as in, they died of COVID only...and the others had COVID and 1-3 other conditions?

Sure, a virus is going around, and the elderly/sick are more vulnerable to it but the impact is overblown is being use as a cover by all sorts of idiotic or nefarious circles. See @LeeLemonoil comment above.
Remember the Ebola "scare" a few years ago? Why was there no proposed shutdown for a virus that has estimated 50% mortality rate and is much more transmissible than this coronavirus debacle?

 

[Peatogenic]

Well, in terms of sharing the data - most of what has been posted on the forum is actual data, so there should be no problem sharing it. However, judging from my friends and other people around me, even if it is something objective it probably would still get you labelled as a nut. Most people are too afraid of thinking about alternative scenarios and "what if" so they stick to the official story and may even become violent against dissenters.
As far as the conspiracy - I don't think the virus itself is a conspiracy. However, the response to it is bizarre and it is quite obvious that quarantining entire countries or shutting down entire economies is making things worse. It is also quite obvious at this point that powerful interests are using the virus to get preferential treatment and even get another bailout at the taxpayer expense. So, while the virus itself MAY be a natural (and thus uncontrolled) event the response to it does not make any sense until you notice that it benefits disproportionately certain groups. As one politician said in the past "never let a crisis go to waste".
The argument about lack of quarantine would overwhelm health systems does not make sense considering that the alternative being implemented (shutting down the entire country) destroys much more than the health system and creates long term problems that nobody really can anticipate or knows how to solve.
Have you seen the statements on TV by large companies, banks, sports venues, etc begging the federal government to shut them down? Why would any private business ask for such a thing knowing it would mean potential failure of the business as a whole. Only one reason - the shutdown order would result in a financial injection/bailout (probably without any strings attached) that is worth more to the business than continuing to operate as usual.

Sure, a virus is going around, and the elderly/sick are more vulnerable to it but the impact is overblown is being use as a cover by all sorts of idiotic or nefarious circles. See @LeeLemonoil comment above.
Remember the Ebola "scare" a few years ago? Why was there no proposed shutdown for a virus that has estimated 50% mortality rate and is much more transmissible than this coronavirus debacle?

I've seen the low transmission data, but it contradicts the number of positive tests, if the testing is accurate.

 

[tankasnowgod]

@haidut @tankasnowgod
Yeah it all seems fishy but are we really all under the control of some global governmental conspiracy to change world order here?? Seems very far-fetched...

More likely, it has all just snowballed out of control due to China’s overreaction to it and the inaccurate testing and numbers coming from there. Governments around the world have had their hand forced...you can’t be the country that didn’t shut down and let x number of people die.

Having said that, why are we hearing all this coming out of Italy? What’s the story with the lack of respirators?

On a more personal note, all my friends think I’m bonkers and ignoring the obvious data...how does one even begin to share this stuff?

Why do you think a global government conspiracy is far fetched? In the very next paragraph, you suggest that government's had their hand forced...... well, who would be powerful enough to force their hand? Certainly, a more powerful entity above you would be a very likely candidate. Can state governments force city governments to do things? Federal forcing state? Why not a World Government forcing National or Federal Governments?

Beyond that, there has been evidence of a World Government forming our entire lifetime. Certainly you've heard of the United Nations. At the very least, it's a framework, and they do appear to have quite a bit of power.

You also have entities like the European Union, International Monetary Fund, and Bank of International Settlements. You have organizations like Open Societies, that are outright calling for the destruction of all nations and a planet with no borders. Ever read "Pawns In The Game" by William Guy Carr?

You can even find references to "World Communism" in the US Code. For example- 50 U.S. Code § 841 - Findings and declarations of fact

"Unlike political parties, which evolve their policies and programs through public means, by the reconciliation of a wide variety of individual views, and submit those policies and programs to the electorate at large for approval or disapproval, the policies and programs of the Communist Party are secretly prescribed for it by the foreign leaders of the world Communist movement."

"Holding that doctrine, its role as the agency of a hostile foreign power renders its existence a clear present and continuing danger to the security of the United States. It is the means whereby individuals are seduced into the service of the world Communist movement, trained to do its bidding, and directed and controlled in the conspiratorial performance of their revolutionary services."

Bottom line, there is at least enough evidence to make it entirely plausible, if not likely, that there are powers working toward a goal of a One World Government.

 

[LeeLemonoil]

More newspapers and scientists now reporting or voicing opinions that there are many possible distortions in the differing numbers of infections and lethality rates. Stating the obvious.
Some virologists also say that the virus is likely longer in Italy than assumed, st least since November where allegedly there were many lung/respiratory cases in Italy already.
German msm reporting and citing international msm, no link right now.

If there were a lot of respiratory cases in Italy already in November, then how long is the virus maling its rounds already? Given that many people from everywhere on this forum say they experienced stubborn throat issues this autumn/winter, many might already be immune.
Crashing entire economies is pathetic

 

[S.Seneff]

Sure, a virus is going around, and the elderly/sick are more vulnerable to it but the impact is overblown is being use as a cover by all sorts of idiotic or nefarious circles. See @LeeLemonoil comment above.
Remember the Ebola "scare" a few years ago? Why was there no proposed shutdown for a virus that has estimated 50% mortality rate and is much more transmissible than this coronavirus debacle?

But it doesn't transmit if you talk with a contaminated person during a prolonged time...

 

[tankasnowgod]

I've seen the low transmission data, but it contradicts the number of positive tests, if the testing is accurate.

Why would you assume the testing is accurate? It was thrown together in less than 4 months time, there is no way the test itself could have been tested and re-tested and refined.

Jon Rappoport has gone into depth on this-

CDC announces test kits for coronavirus don’t work « Jon Rappoport's Blog
CDC begins testing Americans for the Coronavirus—but how? « Jon Rappoport's Blog
The gold standard of medical tests is fake « Jon Rappoport's Blog

 

[Scenes]

Why do you think a global government conspiracy is far fetched? In the very next paragraph, you suggest that government's had their hand forced...... well, who would be powerful enough to force their hand? Certainly, a more powerful entity above you would be a very likely candidate. Can state governments force city governments to do things? Federal forcing state? Why not a World Government forcing National or Federal Governments?

Beyond that, there has been evidence of a World Government forming our entire lifetime. Certainly you've heard of the United Nations. At the very least, it's a framework, and they do appear to have quite a bit of power.

You also have entities like the European Union, International Monetary Fund, and Bank of International Settlements. You have organizations like Open Societies, that are outright calling for the destruction of all nations and a planet with no borders. Ever read "Pawns In The Game" by William Guy Carr?

You can even find references to "World Communism" in the US Code. For example- 50 U.S. Code § 841 - Findings and declarations of fact

"Unlike political parties, which evolve their policies and programs through public means, by the reconciliation of a wide variety of individual views, and submit those policies and programs to the electorate at large for approval or disapproval, the policies and programs of the Communist Party are secretly prescribed for it by the foreign leaders of the world Communist movement."

"Holding that doctrine, its role as the agency of a hostile foreign power renders its existence a clear present and continuing danger to the security of the United States. It is the means whereby individuals are seduced into the service of the world Communist movement, trained to do its bidding, and directed and controlled in the conspiratorial performance of their revolutionary services."

Bottom line, there is at least enough evidence to make it entirely plausible, if not likely, that there are powers working toward a goal of a One World Government.

Sure it’s possible - I still think it’s a stretch. Governments’ hand is forced not by global gov, but by media. You can’t be the gov that didn’t shut down and let something like Italy happen to your country. Similarly with schools, you can’t be the independent school that stayed open and let kids/staff get infected.

I think the whole thing has just snowballed entirely out of control and the medical experts seem to be feeding the hysteria. If anyone is leading the misinformation, it seems to be coming from there.

In Aus, we’ve gone in to a lockdown of sorts affecting most industries to try to ‘slow the spread’ and ‘flatten the curve’. They announced yesterday we have a total of 1700 confirmed cases nation-wide, with something like 5-10 total deaths attributed to the virus...AND WE’VE SHUT DOWN THE COUNTRY FOR THAT...

 

[tankasnowgod]

Sure it’s possible - I still think it’s a stretch. Governments’ hand is forced not by global gov, but by media. You can’t be the gov that didn’t shut down and let something like Italy happen to your country. Similarly with schools, you can’t be the independent school that stayed open and let kids/staff get infected.

I think the whole thing has just snowballed entirely out of control and the medical experts seem to be feeding the hysteria. If anyone is leading the misinformation, it seems to be coming from there.

In Aus, we’ve gone in to a lockdown of sorts affecting most industries to try to ‘slow the spread’ and ‘flatten the curve’. They announced yesterday we have a total of 1700 confirmed cases nation-wide, with something like 5-10 total deaths attributed to the virus...AND WE’VE SHUT DOWN THE COUNTRY FOR THAT...

So you think it's media that is forcing the Government's hand. Okay. Ted Turner is the owner of CNN, Rupert Murdoch Fox News, MSNBC is a joint venture between NBC and Microsoft, which includes Bill Gates.

Are Turner, Gates, Murdoch and a few others the actual one's calling the shots now?

At this point, it's not so much a disagreement about a shadow government, just what exactly that shadow government is (United Nations, Big Media, Intelligence Agencies, a secret cabal or what have you).

 

[haidut]

I've seen the low transmission data, but it contradicts the number of positive tests, if the testing is accurate.

It is not accurate, at least not the currently used version.
[Potential False-Positive Rate Among The 'Asymptomatic Infected Individuals' In Close Contacts Of CO

 

[Entropy]

Global situations like this highlight how silly and fake the money system is.

With proper education, and use of technology we could shift to a resource based economy powered with cleaner energy systems.