Covid-19 Models And Predictions

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous Health Discussions' started by LeeLemonoil, Mar 19, 2020.

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  1. LeeLemonoil

    LeeLemonoil Member

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    The currently most important one, heeded by most western governments:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    It's a dire situation. Most concerning seems to me that there is the method now in place to decelerate the spread of the infection by lockdwons and semi-lockdowns - but these carry the risk that herd immunity will not establish itself.

    Lethaiy in China 0,66%. Europe and US will be higher.
     
  2. RealNeat

    RealNeat Member

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  3. tankasnowgod

    tankasnowgod Member

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    Which means, instead of the supposed 3,405 and number you see everywhere (still nowhere near justifying even a quarantine of a city, let alone country or globe), the actual death toll in Italy is closer to 31. Just 31 people.

    From the article-

    "The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions."

    So even worse than 31, they can only confirm 3.

    "The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5. As of March 17, 17 people under 50 had died from the disease. All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions."

    Only 17 deaths for those under 50.

    A complete clownshow.

    Nice to actually see the Italian Health Officials try and discredit this nonsense, even as Bloomberg news continues to spin it in the title of that article (through prints facts in the article that clearly discredit the narritive). This isn't the first report I've seen of this, either.

    Google Translate
     
  4. Collden

    Collden Member

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    No way is lockdown for 18 months feasible. Even if people would somehow tolerate it, the negative health consequences of social isolation that long would outweigh any gains from deceleration of corona spread.

    The recent Ray Peat review got me thinking, so far in Italy about 3500 people have died with Coronavirus infection in the past 30 days, but the normal total average number of people dying of disease in any given month in Italy is 43,000. It seems we can't actually know whether Corona was the cause of death or whether the fact that a small fraction of the people who died of illness also tested positive for Corona was incidental.

    The only way to know for sure would be to check if the total death rate for the past 30 days in Italy is substantially higher than normal, but haven't found any available stats on that.
     
  5. Collden

    Collden Member

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    The relevant number is not how many people who died with Coronavirus also had other diseases, it would be just as bad if Corona acted as a trigger that kills anyone with a weakened constitution, what matters is whether total deaths from disease has actually gone up during this outbreak.
     
  6. RealNeat

    RealNeat Member

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    Thats IF the virus is accurtely measured as the reason for death instead of any other garden variety of yearly health "complicators."
     
  7. tankasnowgod

    tankasnowgod Member

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    If it has gone up at all, it would be minuscule. The average prediction is that 7.1 people per thousand will die every year. That's about 50 million people worldwide, and 426,000 in Italy. So, about 1167 die in Italy every day. The number of people who died in Italy who also tested positive for Corona Virus is 3405. Considering the age of people affected and those with serious illnesses, it's very likely that the vast majority of that 3405 number (spread over two months) would have been in the yearly death toll, anyway. Even if that number were on top of the average death toll (which can have significant variations year to year), you are only looking at a 1% increase so far.
     
  8. Collden

    Collden Member

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    At the moment I'm not sure how you could conclude that the cause of death is Corona or something else if 99% of patients suffered from other potentially fatal diseases.

    Only time will tell if the total death rates during this outbreak actually went up beyond the normal, since at the moment the number of deaths attributed to corona is still miniscule compared to total deaths.
     
  9. Collden

    Collden Member

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    I agree the number is still too small, if things keep escalating you should be able to see an effect in a few weeks though, assuming that corona is actually causing any additional deaths.
     
  10. tankasnowgod

    tankasnowgod Member

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    What's escalating, exactly? The only thing I see escalating is testing for a certain virus (out of potentially trillions), and hysteria from media and governments.

    Even serious cases remains at about half what it was on at the peak on Feb 17th of 12,067. It currently sits at 6,810
     
  11. Collden

    Collden Member

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    If the number of corona-attributed deaths in a day start climbing above the normal average, which is not that far off (427 vs 1400), then its definitely doing something.
     
  12. tankasnowgod

    tankasnowgod Member

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    1000 is pretty far off. There are only 2,498 people in serious/critical condition in Italy, so even if it did, it would likely be only a one day spike.
     
  13. sladerunner69

    sladerunner69 Member

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    Well apparently Italy is out of respirators and hospital beds for treating Corona cases. They've had to retro fit two cruise ships as hospitals to accommodate the increase in cases.
     
  14. Collden

    Collden Member

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    You may be right, so far the total mortality numbers in Europe as well as Italy are at or even below average.
    EURO MOMO
     
  15. Collden

    Collden Member

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    I'm skeptical till I see hard numbers on total deaths and hospitalizations and how they compare to previous comparable periods, the Italian healthcare was apparently overwhelmed also during the flu season of 2017, so there may be nothing uniquely bad about this outbreak.
    A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19
     
  16. Kram

    Kram Member

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    Exactly. This isn't just about the number of deaths that may be attributed to covid-19 (although important), many people require hospitalization which leads to all sorts of issues. Lots of other factors come into play. Many people on this forum don't seem to understand this and are simply looking at this as an issue of fatality rate.
     
  17. tara

    tara Member

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    I agree this is relevant.
    Also, if hospitals and ICU wards get overwhelmed, and people suffer severe illness, even if they eventually survive, this is also a concern.

    On this page:
    Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
    you can scroll down to the growth by country section, and see how long it is taking for confirmed deaths to double per country. Gives an idea of why there is widespread concern. China and South Korea have slowed it down. Italy and Spain not so much .

    Scroll a bit further down to confirmed deaths by country graphs, and you can see the total and new cases for the world and particular countries.
    Easy to see why anyone paying attention to the facts would be concerned.

    Further again, and you can see testing by country and by confirmed cases.

    Yeah. I heard an Italian doctor talking about it. The current situation is unprecedented.
     
  18. schultz

    schultz Member

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    Yah I think they had about 25,000 deaths in the 2016/2017 season that they attributed to the flu and 15,800 the previous year. It will be interesting to see the numbers of this season once it has passed. It would also be interesting to also see the amount per month.
     
  19. JudiBlueHen

    JudiBlueHen Member

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    I would like to see total numbers of pneumonia deaths for the same time periods over the past few years. I would like to know how many autopsies have been done outside China, and what were the findings.
     
  20. tara

    tara Member

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    Is this relevant?
    INFLUENZA AND PNEUMONIA DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY
    It's by population and country, not by case.

    Italy:
    influenza deaths: 8.15/100 000
    population: ~ 60 000 000
    population x flu death rate: 600 x 8.15 = 4890

    If you look at this page:
    Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research
    Italy has deaths attributed to covid-19 of about 5/100 000 (about 3000 so far this year), and it doubled in about 4 days.

    Iran has a usual flu death rate of about 20/100 000, and covid-19 confirmed deaths so far at ~1.4/ 100 000, doubled in 5 days.

    You can make comparisons for other countries.
    You can select specific countries to add to some of the graphs if they don't already show.

    Since the covid-19 epidemic is just beginning, we can't yet know what country/population-wide death-rates will be when it spreads. The rates of doubling in many countries seem to indicate it's likely to go up before it levels off.
     
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