Coronavirus: How Come Germans Have 40 Times Less Chances To Die Than Italians ?

tankasnowgod

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the best socialised medicine system in the world ;)

Easy free full access for all, proper investment into staffing and provision of intensive care beds etc.

9 Deaths, and 9 in "serious or critical" care in Germany. Is the medical system really making that much of a difference if it only has to care for 20 cases?
 

tankasnowgod

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Italy also has the most number of cases outside of China, and as a percent of the total population as well. They all happened in about a three week period. The hospitals are overwhelmed. There's probably many people dying due to inadequate care. I would expect the same thing could happen anywhere, including Germany and S. Korea, but they've been able to keep the spread manageable to prevent overloading their healthcare infrastructure.

I listed Germany numbers above, S. Korea has 72 Deaths, 59 in Serious or Critical condition. It just doesn't sound like people are even using the medical system in those areas.
 

Peater Piper

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Giraffe did an entire post on how one of the most polluted areas in all of Europe accounts for most of the "Corona Deaths" in Italy.

One Of Europe's Most Polluted Areas Accounts For Most Of Italy's 'Corona Death': The Po Valley

Air Quality in Germany is significantly better overall than Italy, and no areas appear to approach the poor quality of Po Valley.

Air Pollution in Germany: Real-time Air Quality Index Visual Map
I'm skeptical. Poland's air quality looks worse than Italy's, and both S. Korea and Taiwan get a nice dose of China's pollution. All of them have fared better than Italy.

World's Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index
 

nigma

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Italy is simply ahead in numbers because it started there first. I expect rest of Europe to just be delayed.
 

Indicatrice

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Italy is simply ahead in numbers because it started there first. I expect rest of Europe to just be delayed.

I thought the same thing before things blew up in Spain, the situation will become more uniform throughout Europe
 

yerrag

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Stereotyping here: but don't people further up north have less social life than down south? COVID-19 control about social distancing? Don't a Italians like to mill around plazas? I've been to Italy and not been to Germany.
 

YamnayaMommy

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Italy is simply ahead in numbers because it started there first. I expect rest of Europe to just be delayed.
Exactly. Sorta surprised everyone doesn’t see this. Northern Italy is overrun by Chinese workers and tourists. It’s the canary in the coal mine.
 

Kingpinguin

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Italy is just ahead. Nothing special. They might have higher numbers of death because of factors like many in old age. Smaller villages with less sophisticated hospital settins and also hospitals got over crowded fast. Same will eventually happen in other parts of europe within 2-4 weeks is my guess. 60% will get covid. 10% gets severly sick and 90% get managable symptoms out of those 60%. And between 0,5-1,5% will die out of the 60%. I believe that will be sorta the numbers when this is blown over. Proper measures will help tho.
 

yerrag

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Is it Italy where people are always kissing each other on the cheek?

I think so, just very much a Latin thing.

Another thing is a different mindset towards following rules. I took a taxi in Italy and then I realized how much I felt at home. He was running the red lights, but feeling very natural about it. So when people there are asked to form a line, it's likely it won't look like a line in Germany.

So, when told to stay indoors and keep a social distance, who's more likely to follow: a German or an Italian? It gets worse the further down South you go.

As to why this isn't happening in Napoli, maybe Milan is where the high fashion houses are, and Chinese tourists like to buy expensive high fashion, and go to Milan. And it has to do with affluence as well. The affluent Chinese tourists go to to Milan, and the affluent travel a lot, and are more likely to be carriers than their less affluent countrymen/women.

I now personally prefer to go to fresh markets to shop, as there are less credit card carrying people there. The fresh markets accept cash only, and the more affluent and credit card-issued people go to supermarkets and membership clubs to shop. And that's also where the panic-buyers load up, and where the large crowds are.
 
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Michael Mohn

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I read that in northern Italy manufacturers brought in tons of Chinese to work in the fashion and clothing factories. The only way to compete a little bit with China's slave labor. A lot of these Chinese workers came from the region of Wuhan.
 

yerrag

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I read that in northern Italy manufacturers brought in tons of Chinese to work in the fashion and clothing factories. The only way to compete a little bit with China's slave labor. A lot of these Chinese workers came from the region of Wuhan.
So the luxury goods mfr saw how much better the Chinese were making counterfeits, and decided to pirate their workers to make the real stuff. And now they realize what a raw deal it was!
 

Michael Mohn

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So the luxury goods mfr saw how much better the Chinese were making counterfeits, and decided to pirate their workers to make the real stuff. And now they realize what a raw deal it was!

Chinese mafia takes over entire service industries like nail & beauty salons or massage spas. The workers live in bunk beds and get a minimal wage. The German administration and union leaders take the bribes and look the other way. Certainly works in other industries too.
 

tankasnowgod

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Italy is just ahead. Nothing special. They might have higher numbers of death because of factors like many in old age. Smaller villages with less sophisticated hospital settins and also hospitals got over crowded fast. Same will eventually happen in other parts of europe within 2-4 weeks is my guess. 60% will get covid. 10% gets severly sick and 90% get managable symptoms out of those 60%. And between 0,5-1,5% will die out of the 60%. I believe that will be sorta the numbers when this is blown over. Proper measures will help tho.

Europe has 741 Million People. Are you suggesting that 444 Million Europeans will get COVID 19, 44 Million will be severely sick, and about 4 Million People will die, all in a single continent? And, to be clear, all you predicting all of this to happen before the end of April?

Amazing. Especially when numbers for similar type "pandemics" like SARS was only 774 dead total worldwide, about 18,183 total dead from Swine Flu.
 

yerrag

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Amazing. Especially when numbers for similar type "pandemics" like SARS was only 774 dead total worldwide, about 18,183 total dead from Swine Flu.
So what is the point of your bringing up the recent past like it is repeatable? Do you think 1918 is all in the past, like it's so last century?

And are you in any way saying it's impossible until it's proven?

And are you telling people to just relax? It's highly probable that they will not be affected because the probabality is so low?

Tell us what we should do please.
 

Giraffe

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Something's going on in Germany as they seem to cope incredibly well with the infection and show astoundingly low death rates compared to Italians, at identical infection levels.
Air pollution in Germany is much less of an issue than in the north of Italy.

Then for patients in acute critical conditions (as in acutely fighting for their lives) good nursing care is the single most important factor. They need a (trained) nurse at their bedside more or less all of the time. I read that a nurse in ICU can care for 2.5 patients at most. When it comes to hospital beds and ICU beds per capita, Germany is among the leading countries worldwide. Though quite a few hospital beds are 'vacant' only because the hospitals are understaffed, we still are better off than most countries, and hospital capacities have not become a critical factor yet.

In press conferences several journalists from abroad asked what we are doing right here. The official answer was: (1) our testing and tracking system has been effective right from the beginning partly because private labs got on board very early (unlike in the US for example), and (2) we are still in the beginning and the number of deaths will rise. The officials have avoided to answer the question if the treatment is different. An Italian doctor (I linked the video somewhere) has said that they are using HIV and malaria drugs. German experts who are not officials were very skeptical when asked about the use of HIV-drugs. I hope they are not using them in Germany.

Maybe the fact Germany has the most liberal health care system in the world, and alternative therapies can be administered by doctors ?
In hospitals they strictly follow their protocols. If it is a 'novel disease' there will be room for experimental treatments, I guess, but this is not unique to Germany. Some alternative treatments are indeed covered by some health insurances.
 

yerrag

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Air pollution in Germany is much less of an issue than in the north of Italy.

Then for patients in acute critical conditions (as in acutely fighting for their lives) good nursing care is the single most important factor. They need a (trained) nurse at their bedside more or less all of the time. I read that a nurse in ICU can care for 2.5 patients at most. When it comes to hospital beds and ICU beds per capita, Germany is among the leading countries worldwide. Though quite a few hospital beds are 'vacant' only because the hospitals are understaffed, we still are better off than most countries, and hospital capacities have not become a critical factor yet.

In press conferences several journalists from abroad asked what we are doing right here. The official answer was: (1) our testing and tracking system has been effective right from the beginning partly because private labs got on board very early (unlike in the US for example), and (2) we are still in the beginning and the number of deaths will rise. The officials have avoided to answer the question if the treatment is different. An Italian doctor (I linked the video somewhere) has said that they are using HIV and malaria drugs. German experts who are not officials were very skeptical when asked about the use of HIV-drugs. I hope they are not using them in Germany.


In hospitals they strictly follow their protocols. If it is a 'novel disease' there will be room for experimental treatments, I guess, but this is not unique to Germany. Some alternative treatments are indeed covered by some health insurances.
Japan has their own version of TCM, called Kampo, and it is used by Japanese practitioners of Western medicine, which had German roots from the Meiji era decision to adopt western practices.

TCM and its derivatives are no strangers to many western medicine practitioners in the other Sino sphere of countries - China, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. A cursory look at the death rates will show that:

Coronavirus: Real-time News Updates and Data

A medical tradition that is open to ideas and not solely wedded to indoctrination by big pharma is proving to be more effective. It's good that other countries are showing the way, as this should make people question more the efficacy of their own medical idiocy.

I hope the death rates in these countries provide a guide to the ceiling for the US and Europe, and elsewhere where western pharma medical dogma reigns dogmatically. But I'm afraid those rates may be providing the floor.

A key reason, which we all know, is that unpatentable and unprofitable yet effective drugs are simply written off as lacking in evidence and never considered. In an insurance-centric system, going outside the system means one bears all the risk- to life as well as to his financial survival.
 
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yerrag

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Incidentally, Germany is open to the use of homeopathy. The US doesn't. Ironic. Since it was invented in the US.
 

Giraffe

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[emphasis mine]
Italy is just ahead. Nothing special. They might have higher numbers of death because of factors like many in old age. Smaller villages with less sophisticated hospital settins and also hospitals got over crowded fast. Same will eventually happen in other parts of europe within 2-4 weeks is my guess. 60% will get covid. 10% gets severly sick and 90% get managable symptoms out of those 60%. And between 0,5-1,5% will die out of the 60%. I believe that will be sorta the numbers when this is blown over. Proper measures will help tho.
The vast majority of those who have died were old or had pre-existing diseases.

Germany - death rate 2007-2017 | Statista
The statistic shows the death rate in Germany from 2007 to 2017. In 2017, there were about 11.3 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants in Germany.
So this is 1,3%. It's the same group who is at risk. It is mainly the old and the sick that die. Being old or being sick is a risk factor independent of Covid-19 infection.

If 60% got ill and 1.5 % of those would die (= 0.9 % of the population), and all this would happen within 4 weeks: This would be scary. But neither the Chinese nor the South Korean nor the Italian figures are even in the vicinity. If all this happened over the course of two years for example, it would probably not alter the total number of deaths at all.
 

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