Code Review Of Ferguson’s Model That Has Us In Lockdown

Discussion in 'Viruses, Parasites, Fungus, Vaccines' started by Drareg, May 7, 2020.

  1. Drareg

    Drareg Member

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    This is worth your time and please spread the link.

    Professor pants down under lockdown Ferguson’s model is the equivalent of playing candy crush and believing you now have the skills to trade your life savings and others on financial markets while heavily leveraged.

    Imperial college will not release the publicly funded code for others to scrutinize it, it’s known to be riddled with bugs working off one cpu, go above one cpu and it’s incoherent, to try cover up the bug riddled software they sent it to none other than Microsoft! Of course bill Jeffrey Epstein gates just left Microsoft recently and is now on a crusade to vaccinate everyone based on Pac-Man code.

    Code Review of Ferguson's Model – Lockdown Sceptics

    "The model. What it’s doing is best described as “SimCity without the graphics”. It attempts to simulate households, schools, offices, people and their movements, etc. I won’t go further into the underlying assumptions, since that’s well explored elsewhere."


    "Non-deterministic outputs. Due to bugs, the code can produce very different results given identical inputs. They routinely act as if this is unimportant."

    "This problem makes the code unusable for scientific purposes, given that a key part of the scientific method is the ability to replicate results. Without replication, the findings might not be real at all – as the field of psychology has been finding out to its cost. Even if their original code was released, it’s apparent that the same numbers as in Report 9 might not come out of it"

    "Clearly, the documentation wants us to think that, given a starting seed, the model will always produce the same results.
    Investigation reveals the truth: the code produces critically different results, even for identical starting seeds and parameters"


    "The Imperial team’s response is that it doesn’t matter: they are “aware of some small non-determinisms”, but “this has historically been considered acceptable because of the general stochastic nature of the model”. Note the phrasing here: Imperial know their code has such bugs, but act as if it’s some inherent randomness of the universe, rather than a result of amateur coding. Apparently, in epidemiology, a difference of 80,000 deaths is “a small non-determinism”

    "Undocumented equations. Much of the code consists of formulas for which no purpose is given. John Carmack (a legendary video-game programmer) surmised that some of the code might have been automatically translated from FORTRAN some years ago.

    For example, on line 510 of SetupModel.cpp there is a loop over all the “places” the simulation knows about. This code appears to be trying to calculate R0 for “places”. Hotels are excluded during this pass, without explanation.

    This bit of code highlights an issue Caswell Bligh has discussed in your site’s comments: R0 isn’t a real characteristic of the virus. R0 is both an input to and an output of these models, and is routinely adjusted for different environments and situations. Models that consume their own outputs as inputs is problem well known to the private sector – it can lead to rapid divergence and incorrect prediction. There’s a discussion of this problem in section 2.2 of the Google paper, “Machine learning: the high interest credit card of technical debt


    To summarize then , a crack team or crack smoking team of "scientific experts" at imperial college London have practically shut down world economies, ruined lives and small businesses all over the world based on code that is less complex and less robust than pac-man.
    Pacman - Play Pac Man Online

     
  2. OP
    Drareg

    Drareg Member

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  3. OP
    Drareg

    Drareg Member

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    Disclaimer-
    It seems the lockdown sceptic website is run by a far right extremist, I’m not sure but probably best to keep this in mind.

    The code though is still under scrutiny, it would make sense to release it.
     
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