Are Coronavirus Lockdowns Working?

yerrag

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Speaking for where I live in Metro Manila, the way the lockdowns are becoming more restrictive, the goal isn't really to flatten the curve.

It's to make the curve into an infinite low plateau. Carrying social distancing to the max, how are people getting to get infected and become immune as a result?

The answer is obvious: They aren't.

The funny thing is the government is just playing follow the leader - be it China or Singapore, or the US. Yet all these governments are muddling through. They all don't have a strategy. Everybody is on wait and see, as if waiting for a cue from each other. But as they play this guessing game, the noose is getting tighter and tighter on the people. When people become hungry, as the trend is towards more shortages the longer this thing lasts, it will become unbearable for communities all over.

The scramble for face masks and ventilators by governments that happened earlier will be repeated, as each government seeks replenishment of food supply. It will become food wars, between countries, and between government and the people.

And it doesn't help that lockdowns are designed towards a resolution through vaccination. As the pressure grows, vaccines will just be hastily approved and made and distributed. And people will be forced to get vaccination with a gun to their head.

I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I'm seeing the situation devolving.
 

aussiebaldguy

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When 1000 people die nobody bats an eye
To save 1000 people we will shut down a country
Its obviously not maths
 

InChristAlone

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“The Justice Department will consider taking legal action against governors who continue to impose stringent rules for dealing with the coronavirus that #infringe on #constitutional #rights even after the crisis subsides in their states, Attorney General William Barr said.
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Blunt means to deal with the pandemic, such as stay-at-home orders and directives shutting down businesses, are justified up to a point, Barr said in an interview Tuesday. ‘Eventually, though, states should move to more targeted measures,’ Barr said.
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Barr said ‘these are very, very burdensome impingements on liberty. And we adopted them, we have to remember, for the limited purpose of slowing down the spread, that is bending the curve. We didn’t adopt them as the comprehensive way of dealing with this disease.’
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‘You can’t just keep on feeding the patient chemotherapy and say well, we’re killing the cancer, because we were getting to the point where we’re killing the patient,’ Barr said. ‘And now is the time that we have to start looking ahead and adjusting to more targeted therapies.’ “
attorney general.jpg
 

David PS

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When 1000 people die nobody bats an eye
To save 1000 people we will shut down a country
Its obviously not maths


I agree. As of April 22, 8 states had not locked down.
The leaders of Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming have taken steps to limit the size of gatherings, close schools and some nonessential businesses, and prohibit on-site dining at restaurants. But they have stopped short of directing all residents to stay home except for essential business.
These eight states haven't issued stay-at-home orders to fight the coronavirus outbreak

Total Deaths per million population
US average
, , , , , , , 146 from Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,695,418 Cases and 188,802 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer and states are from United States Coronavirus: 866,148 Cases and 48,868 Deaths - Worldometer
Arkansas . . . . . . . . . . 15
Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
North Dakota . . . . . . 20
South Dakota . . . . . . 10
Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . 46
Nebraska. . . . . . . . . . 24
Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
Wyoming . . . . . . . . . 10

These states seem to be doing much better than the national average here in the US both in terms of deaths per million and in terms of keeping their state economies functioning. I wonder if their numbers would have been significantly different if they lockdowned in accordance with feds recommendation.

Do we need another couple weeks of a blanket lockdown in each of the other 48 states? Are these numbers yet another elephant in the room?
 

InChristAlone

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I agree. As of April 22, 8 states had not locked down.
The leaders of Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming have taken steps to limit the size of gatherings, close schools and some nonessential businesses, and prohibit on-site dining at restaurants. But they have stopped short of directing all residents to stay home except for essential business.
These eight states haven't issued stay-at-home orders to fight the coronavirus outbreak

Total Deaths per million population
US average
, , , , , , , 146 from Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,695,418 Cases and 188,802 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer and states are from United States Coronavirus: 866,148 Cases and 48,868 Deaths - Worldometer
Arkansas . . . . . . . . . . 15
Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
North Dakota . . . . . . 20
South Dakota . . . . . . 10
Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . 46
Nebraska. . . . . . . . . . 24
Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
Wyoming . . . . . . . . . 10

These states seem to be doing much better than the national average here in the US both in terms of deaths per million and in terms of keeping their state economies functioning. I wonder if their numbers would have been significantly different if they lockdowned in accordance with feds recommendation.

Do we need another couple weeks of a blanket lockdown in each of the other 48 states? Are these numbers yet another elephant in the room?
I have family in Nebraska they are definitely staying home. But I don't agree with any lockdown. Quarantine the sick not the healthy.
 

yerrag

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Modifying Humidity:

There is no evidence that modifying humidity (either increasing humidity in dry climates, or reducing humidity in hot and humid climates) is an effective intervention, and this is not recommended because of concerns about cost, feasibility and safety. -WHO

I've used a humidifier before during winter months where indoor heaters dry up the air. It certainly helps. I've even brought my own humidifier into a hospital room when caring for my mom, as the hospital room was simply very dry.

I don't care about WHO's recommendations many times. It just parrots the misguided "NO EVIDENCE" reasoning so often used by cocky medical experts.

There is such a thing about air being too dry that it dries up our nasal passages and mucous linings, making them less effective in doing their job of trapping contaminants and pathogens. If it's too dry, then increase the humidity. Of course, too much humidity is not good either as it promotes growth of molds.
 

BearWithMe

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Modifying Humidity:

There is no evidence that modifying humidity (either increasing humidity in dry climates, or reducing humidity in hot and humid climates) is an effective intervention, and this is not recommended because of concerns about cost, feasibility and safety.

I've used a humidifier before during winter months where indoor heaters dry up the air. It certainly helps. I've even brought my own humidifier into a hospital room when caring for my mom, as the hospital room was simply very dry.

I don't care about WHO's recommendations many times. It just parrots the misguided "NO EVIDENCE" reasoning so often used by cocky medical experts.

There is such a thing about air being too dry that it dries up our nasal passages and mucous linings, making them less effective in doing their job of trapping contaminants and pathogens. If it's too dry, then increasing the humidity. Of course, too much humidity is not good either as it promotes growth of molds.
What would be the optimal humidity range in the room / house?
 

yerrag

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I remember that range to be 40-70%.
 

Max23

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There is no lockdown in Nicaragua. 6 million people. 13 cases and 3 deaths reported. The football league is also going:

upload_2020-4-28_9-53-21.png
 

thomas00

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looks like the lockdowns could be claiming lives

200417_non_covid_splke2.png

Here are some possible explanations of what is happening from people with relevant expertise.

  • Francesco Checchi, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine: “Initially, the health system is just unprepared to make adequate triage decisions, to actually decide whom to admit and whom not to admit, and therefore what you get is a lot of people dying basically because they can’t get the proper care that they need.”
  • Dr. Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University. “But for the back of the envelope, all you need to do is think out a scenario where mortality rates from the leading causes of death, like heart disease, cancer, and so forth, increase by 10 percent and you’re suddenly dealing with very big numbers.”
  • A study in The Lancet connected at least 250,000 cancer deaths to the 2009 recession, and the stress of the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic crisis it has ignited will likely precipitate increased smoking, alcohol consumption, and drug use, as well. “The opioid epidemic was in the headlines until this came along, and it really hasn’t gone away,” said Woolf. “Now my colleagues in addiction medicine are reporting an increase in opioid overdoses during this pandemic.”
  • NHS Doctor, Dr Max Pemberton writing in the Daily Mail:
    • "In our understandable but frenzied drive to 'Save the NHS' from the scourge of coronavirus, are we inflicting long-term damage on millions of individuals with health problems — some of them life-threatening — that have nothing to do with Covid-19?"
    • In the week ending Friday, April 3, there was an excess of more than 2,500 deaths over what would be expected at this time of year. It is possible that some of them may have occurred among
      • heart attack and stroke victims who haven’t sought or received the treatment they needed fast enough
      • people whose heart bypass or stent operations were cancelled
      • individuals with sepsis, meningitis or serious urinary tract infections, and who did not get the drugs they needed in time because they were worried about going to A&E or adding pressure to the health service
    • Cancer patients have had operations, chemotherapy and radiotherapy cancelled.
    • Stroke and heart attack victims may not get the emergency treatment they need.
    • I shudder at what the fall-out will mean for all these patients — but as a psychiatrist, what I am seeing makes me profoundly worried for the mentally ill and for those who may become so.
    • The chilling truth is that the number of deaths will potentially be far higher if we include mental health patients who can’t get the help they need.

    • 2,500 extra non-Covid deaths in a week! Collateral damage from the lockdown?
 

Drareg

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WHO recommendations published 2019-10:

Non-pharmaceutical public health measures for mitigating the risk and impact of epidemic and pandemic influenza

Not recommended in any circumstances:
  • UV light
  • Modifying humidity
  • Contact tracing
  • Quarantine of exposed individuals
  • Entry and exit screening
  • Border closure
View attachment 17616

Incredible how no journalist will pull them up on this.

The death rates here at the moment seem the most legit but I can’t be 100% -https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country
 

Peatogenic

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I agree. As of April 22, 8 states had not locked down.
The leaders of Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming have taken steps to limit the size of gatherings, close schools and some nonessential businesses, and prohibit on-site dining at restaurants. But they have stopped short of directing all residents to stay home except for essential business.
These eight states haven't issued stay-at-home orders to fight the coronavirus outbreak

Total Deaths per million population
US average
, , , , , , , 146 from Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,695,418 Cases and 188,802 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer and states are from United States Coronavirus: 866,148 Cases and 48,868 Deaths - Worldometer
Arkansas . . . . . . . . . . 15
Iowa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
North Dakota . . . . . . 20
South Dakota . . . . . . 10
Oklahoma . . . . . . . . . 46
Nebraska. . . . . . . . . . 24
Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
Wyoming . . . . . . . . . 10

These states seem to be doing much better than the national average here in the US both in terms of deaths per million and in terms of keeping their state economies functioning. I wonder if their numbers would have been significantly different if they lockdowned in accordance with feds recommendation.

Do we need another couple weeks of a blanket lockdown in each of the other 48 states? Are these numbers yet another elephant in the room?

How do you figure deaths per million for Texas? I'm confused what calculation you did.
 

David PS

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How do you figure deaths per million for Texas? I'm confused what calculation you did.

I performed no calculations. I just reported the data at United States Coronavirus: 1,012,147 Cases and 56,933 Deaths - Worldometer. Currently, Texas is listed as having 24 deaths per million. The data is updated everyday.

It is interesting to sort the death per million column by clicking one of the small arrows in the header (they are in shadow) to see where Texas ranks in the mix. Once you have sorted the data for that column, you have to count how many other states have a lower number. Today, Texas is number 10 from having the lowest count per million. It is right in there with states that had no lockdown.
 

boris

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Many epidemioligists I heard say the same thing. Lockdowns and quarantines of the healthy only increase the chance of a second wave.

There is also this paper that @Giraffe posted in the MDs and Lawyers thread stating it:

More people in Germany voicing their concerns (paper in German) ...

Thesenpapier zur Pandemie durch SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19: Datenbasis verbessern, Prävention gezielt weiterentwickeln, Bürgerrechte wahren

This is a statement that was prepared by an interdisciplinary team of six specialists from different universities and other institutions/organizations:

They discuss in detail:
  • the lack of meaningful data
  • the way data a communicated by the authorities (fearmongering)
  • the lack of effectiveness of the containment measures
  • the risk that is associated with the flattening of the curve (second wave)
  • the social injustice of the measures
  • that the measures are disproportionality
  • that our liberty rights are taken away from us in an unlawful way
  • how we are becoming an authoritarian Big Brother state
  • ...
They make suggestions of how to better handle the crisis better, how to protect the vulnerable etc.

Please read!
 

Peatogenic

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I performed no calculations. I just reported the data at United States Coronavirus: 1,012,147 Cases and 56,933 Deaths - Worldometer. Currently, Texas is listed as having 24 deaths per million. The data is updated everyday.

It is interesting to sort the death per million column by clicking one of the small arrows in the header (they are in shadow) to see where Texas ranks in the mix. Once you have sorted the data for that column, you have to count how many other states have a lower number. Today, Texas is number 10 from having the lowest count per million. It is right in there with states that had no lockdown.

Ok, thanks. I noticed we were really low, and I've actually noticed Houston largely didn't follow the stay at home order....or the SAH seems very lax. But I think it's modeled on other major city SAH.
 

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