97% Chance" Global Mini Ice Age 2030-2040

[gummybear]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... opean-sci/


[bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acoExDbRlrE&feature=youtu.be[/bbvideo]

 

[Such_Saturation]

Yeah dude, pride and laziness are going to sink the western superpower. I'm betting they'll try to write laws to justify launching nukes in response to a computer nerd in China.

The Sino-American Cyberwar of 2015

 

[montmorency]

Someone told me that the Chinese were quietly buying up as much of Cuba as they could. I dont know what the game plan would be, but I wonder if it's related to the above?

I visited Cuba earlier in the year, and can't say I saw any evidence of this, but it doesn't mean it's not happening.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2% ... _relations

hmm...nickel and oil. That would be reason enough, I suppose.

 

[jaa]

I am very close to 100% sure that no human or group of humans who predict that we will experience a mini global ice age during that decade are making an accurate prediction. Climate models are extremely complex and the consensus is that warming trends will continue. So these people are predicting against the trend and against the norm at a near guarantee of 97%. If they're near omnipotent aliens I would put faith in them. If they're just human beings then they may end up being right about the global cooling, but the 97% guess is almost 100% wrong.

Edit: OK I was nitting it up a bit. They're saying their model is 97% accurate. That doesn't mean that we're 97% likely to enter a mini ice age. And there is a lot of skepticism about the model on reddit. And a lot of people saying that the CO2 factors much more into global temps than any reasonable variation in solar radiation ever could.

https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/com ... hat_solar/

 

[pboy]

I concur jaa, I'm not trying to be rude here, but like...every catastrophic prediction has not come true in my lifetime, and theres no reason to believe this would either. I'm farily certain we would gradually be seeing colder, and colder years until it was officially an 'ice age'..it wouldn't just out of the blue, hollywood movie style, become freezing cold one year and the whole earth change...like really it doesn't even make any sense

watch out for the reptilians though

 

[gummybear]

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96774/ I am very close to 100% sure that no human or group of humans who predict that we will experience a mini global ice age during that decade are making an accurate prediction. Climate models are extremely complex and the consensus is that warming trends will continue. So these people are predicting against the trend and against the norm at a near guarantee of 97%. If they're near omnipotent aliens I would put faith in them. If they're just human beings then they may end up being right about the global cooling, but the 97% guess is almost 100% wrong.

Edit: OK I was nitting it up a bit. They're saying their model is 97% accurate. That doesn't mean that we're 97% likely to enter a mini ice age. And there is a lot of skepticism about the model on reddit. And a lot of people saying that the CO2 factors much more into global temps than any reasonable variation in solar radiation ever could.

https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/com ... hat_solar/

It is very easy to predict the future because everything goes in cycles.

 

[montmorency]

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96850/

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96774/ I am very close to 100% sure that no human or group of humans who predict that we will experience a mini global ice age during that decade are making an accurate prediction. Climate models are extremely complex and the consensus is that warming trends will continue. So these people are predicting against the trend and against the norm at a near guarantee of 97%. If they're near omnipotent aliens I would put faith in them. If they're just human beings then they may end up being right about the global cooling, but the 97% guess is almost 100% wrong.

Edit: OK I was nitting it up a bit. They're saying their model is 97% accurate. That doesn't mean that we're 97% likely to enter a mini ice age. And there is a lot of skepticism about the model on reddit. And a lot of people saying that the CO2 factors much more into global temps than any reasonable variation in solar radiation ever could.

https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/com ... hat_solar/

It is very easy to predict the future because everything goes in cycles.

The next Tour De France will be won by Eddy Merckx.

 

[jaa]

It is very easy to predict the future because everything goes in cycles.

More like it is easier to predict the future of things that go in cycles. I don't think the planets climate is one of those things. It wasn't on Mars. And it certainly isn't on Earth since the industrial revolution. So even if their model can predict future solar variation to 97% accuracy, it is a giant stretch to say we will be in a cooling phase from 2030-2040 when there are other factors that contribute to the Earth's climate, some of which have a greater effect than solar variation.

 

[gummybear]

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96854/

It is very easy to predict the future because everything goes in cycles.

More like it is easier to predict the future of things that go in cycles. I don't think the planets climate is one of those things. It wasn't on Mars. And it certainly isn't on Earth since the industrial revolution. So even if their model can predict future solar variation to 97% accuracy, it is a giant stretch to say we will be in a cooling phase from 2030-2040 when there are other factors that contribute to the Earth's climate, some of which have a greater effect than solar variation.

It's entertaining to see so many faults in one sentence.

 

[jaa]

Well gee how about pointing them out with an explanation so I can either change my mind or explain my position better. That smug sentence serves no one but your ego.

 

[pboy]

I hope this forum is around for 15-25 years, so we can resurrect this thread then and have a good laugh

technology is gonna be different, life is gonna be different, and we'll look back at this time, and this fear of an ice age, and be like...lol

 

[gummybear]

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96872/ I hope this forum is around for 15-25 years, so we can resurrect this thread then and have a good laugh

technology is gonna be different, life is gonna be different, and we'll look back at this time, and this fear of an ice age, and be like...lol

Do you have finger tourettes or what is wrong with you?

 

[pboy]

yes, the reptilians did it to me

 

[Such_Saturation]

A 2°C warmer ice age is still an ice age

 

[mujuro]

Hmmm 97 seems to be a popular number among the doomsday climate change circles.

 

[gummybear]

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96870/ Well gee how about pointing them out with an explanation so I can either change my mind or explain my position better. That smug sentence serves no one but your ego.

You don't believe weather changes, fine that is your opinion. History tells us otherwise. Google maunder minimum or something. You are acting just like the people that disregards peat's work. By mocking things you don't understand. Does it make you feel superior?

 

[jaa]

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96974/

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96870/ Well gee how about pointing them out with an explanation so I can either change my mind or explain my position better. That smug sentence serves no one but your ego.

You don't believe weather changes, fine that is your opinion. History tells us otherwise. Google maunder minimum or something.

You're putting words in my mouth. I did not say I don't believe weather changes. Of course it does. It's not cyclical though. Hence my Mars comment. Or you can look at the link I posted and see that greenhouse gas emissions account for much more variation in temperature than solar cycles can.

You are acting just like the people that disregards peat's work. By mocking things you don't understand. Does it make you feel superior?

Yeah jaa is just like all those close-minded people who disregard Peat right guys! Good try. Bad argument. Does it make you feel superior to promote a theory that goes against what the majority of climate models predict? This name calling game makes it so much easier to argue (and so much more difficult to learn anything).

 

[gummybear]

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96991/

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96974/

https://raypeatforum.com/forums/posts/96870/ Well gee how about pointing them out with an explanation so I can either change my mind or explain my position better. That smug sentence serves no one but your ego.

You don't believe weather changes, fine that is your opinion. History tells us otherwise. Google maunder minimum or something.

You're putting words in my mouth. I did not say I don't believe weather changes. Of course it does. It's not cyclical though. Hence my Mars comment. Or you can look at the link I posted and see that greenhouse gas emissions account for much more variation in temperature than solar cycles can.

You are acting just like the people that disregards peat's work. By mocking things you don't understand. Does it make you feel superior?

Yeah jaa is just like all those close-minded people who disregard Peat right guys! Good try. Bad argument. Does it make you feel superior to promote a theory that goes against what the majority of climate models predict? This name calling game makes it so much easier to argue (and so much more difficult to learn anything).

Okay it's not cyclical that's your opinion.

I wasn't the one who started by mocking it, and the whole climate warming al gore scam is just another way to raise taxes.

 

[jaa]

This ties in well with feeling superior by mocking things you don't understand, climate change, and 97%.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... ian-papers

It's almost cyclical.

 

[Such_Saturation]

So you're saying Mars couldn't become nice and green again?